Originally published April 14, 2009 at 4:00 PM | Page modified April 14, 2009 at 4:41 PM

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UW researchers find weather forecasts confuse the public

Researchers at the University of Washington say only about half the people know what a weather forecast means when it predicts a 20 percent chance of rain.

By The Associated Press

Researchers at the University of Washington say only about half the people know what a weather forecast means when it predicts a 20 percent chance of rain.

A psychologist, Susan Joslyn, and colleagues tested more than 450 college students and found may were confused. Some think it will rain over 20 percent of an area, others that it will rain 20 percent of the time.

It actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with those same atmospheric conditions.

The survey tests are reported in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

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Comments (37)

I wonder if anyone would notice if they stopped giving us the barometric pressure? Posted on April 14, 2009 at 6:24 PM by shannondoodle. Jump to comment

The problem isn't that they are confused by the forecast, it is that they are confused by what used to be elementary school MATH! Posted on April 14, 2009 at 11:27 PM by CH3NO2. Jump to comment

30 percent, actually. 14 percent each year. But, in terms of forecasts, Cliff Mass at the UW is way better at forecasting than any of the TV... Posted on April 14, 2009 at 4:52 PM by Will in Seattle. Jump to comment

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