More demand for state programs to cost $175 million

OLYMPIA — The lingering recession will stoke demand for government services, adding another $175 million to the state's expected costs through mid-2011, officials said Friday.

The state budget already is facing a shortfall of about $8 billion, making Friday's uptick in government costs a relatively minor part of the budget problem. But it still adds another sour note to the Legislature's considerable budget-writing task, the most dire economic situation in many years.

"I think we're all getting a little numbed by these numbers," said Victor Moore, Gov. Chris Gregoire's budget director. "Four years ago, this would have been a substantial late-breaking development."

Higher demand was seen largely in health-care programs, welfare services and public school enrollment.

As the economic downturn hits Washingtonians in the pocketbook, more people will qualify for public assistance and choose public schools over more expensive private education. It's also assumed that fewer high school students will drop out because of a tighter job market.

The most expensive growth predicted for the 2009-2011 biennium is a Medicaid program that finances long-term care for the elderly and disabled. The additional 5,000 people expected to seek those services in the next two years will cost about $51.6 million more than anticipated in Gregoire's proposed budget.

The number of families seeking welfare-related medical aid is expected to jump by more than 22,000 in the next two-year budget cycle, costing nearly $32 million more than presumed in Gregoire's budget.

About 4,700 more people are expected to seek aid through General Assistance programs, which give cash to poor adults who can't work. That growth would cost about $12.7 million.

Basic public education expenses are expected to rise by about $10.5 million, with about 2,100 more students in the system during the 2009-2011 budget period.

Officials said the education forecast could increase again if the current recession lasts through the 2010-2011 school year.