Flood of ads still to come in governor's race

OLYMPIA — Sick of political ads? Brace yourself.

The two candidates for governor and their supporters have collected almost $30 million this election and still have millions to burn in the next 25 days.

Voters should expect "wall-to-wall TV, and wall-to-wall radio," said former state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance. Not to mention more phone calls, fliers in the mailbox and ads on the Internet.

State Public Disclosure Commission reports indicate Gov. Christine Gregoire, Republican Dino Rossi and independent groups backing them have more than $12 million left to spend.

The real figure is likely much smaller because current state records don't reflect new campaign spending since the end of August. But even if the campaigns have only half that money left, they'd still have to spend nearly $10,000 an hour, every hour, until the Nov. 4 election to use it all.

Jim Rose, director of sales at KING-TV in Seattle, said airtime buys for the governor's race have "ratcheted up quite a lot."

"It will surpass what we thought those two candidates will spend," he said.

The ad blitz at some point may become white noise to voters, but "no one wants unilateral disarmament," said Christian Sinderman, a Democratic consultant.

The amount of money being raised and spent this election dwarfs the contest in 2004, when Gregoire and Rossi ran against each other for the first time. Gregoire won that election by 133 votes, after two recounts. Polls indicate this will be another close race.

Four years ago, both candidates raised about $12.6 million combined. This election, Rossi and Gregoire have raised nearly $20 million total.

Independent groups also are playing a much bigger role. So far, a handful of political-action committees (PACs) have raised about $10 million, far more than was raised and spent in the 2004 governor's race.

Gregoire's biggest backer is Evergreen Progress, a PAC that has raised about $4.7 million, largely from labor groups and the Democratic Governors Association.

Most of Rossi's support is coming from the Republican Governors Association and It's Time for a Change, a PAC that gets most of its money from the Building Industry Association of Washington. Combined, they've raised more than $5 million.

Both sides are throwing a barrage of ads on TV and radio. Evergreen Progress, for example, is running an ad that links Rossi to President Bush and merges their two faces into a composite image.

It's Time for a Change is running an ad that blames Gregoire for problems in the state foster-care system.

Both the Gregoire and Rossi campaigns have ads on the air as well.

Why run ads until nobody is listening?

"You don't want the other side to have the last word," Sinderman said. "No one wants to cede that ground."

Vance said the amount of money being raised for the governor's race is unusual but can easily be spent.

Twenty years ago candidates could run ads on the major broadcast TV stations, on radio and in newspapers and be done.

Nowadays, "it's so much harder to reach voters," he said. "A candidate with lots of money needs to be everywhere: broadcast TV, cable TV, radio, direct mail, Internet and phones. If you've got the money, you've got to do all those things."

And much of that effort is aimed at a narrow slice of the electorate. Out of the state's 3.5 million voters, the race could easily come down to a relatively small group of undecided voters.

Polls on the governor's race have consistently shown the percentage of undecided voters in the single digits. Most people apparently have decided.

"It's not surprising for this contest, because we have the same players," said Matt Barreto, co-director of the Washington Poll, a public-opinion survey sponsored by the University of Washington.

Paul Berendt, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party, said he'd expected this governor's race would break records for raising and spending money.

"Is it overkill? Probably," he said. "Am I surprised? Not in the least."

Andrew Garber: 360-236-8268 or agarber@seattletimes.com