Picking brain of a top pollster

As one of the country's most prominent pollsters, John Zogby is charged with sorting out what Americans think and feel. Then he attempts to predict the future.

He correctly predicted a tie in the 2000 Bush vs. Gore presidential election by asking polling subjects to imagine they were choosing a president for the Land of Oz.

Like the real candidates they represented, the Scarecrow and Tin Man emerged from his poll in a dead heat. Americans couldn't decide whether they wanted all heart or all brains.

In the run-up to another historic election, we asked Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International as well as a columnist and broadcast pundit, for his latest predictions.

Q: What does your polling tell you about the future of the country?

A: It's hopeful.

First of all, to set the stage, there's myriad books out there with what's wrong with the country and with the American people, and I had polling numbers that told me differently. I just thought, here was an antidote to all of the negativism.

Basically, for a variety of reasons, I think that more and more Americans are rejecting the traditional American dream, which has been expressed in material terms, in terms of acquiring, and [they are] moving toward wanting to lead a more genuine life, one that's more fulfilling.

Twenty-seven percent of U.S. adults are working at a job that pays less [than they used to make], and they've had to simply, over the last decade and a half, readjust their lives. On the other end of the spectrum, there are those who've made it, who've achieved materially, but have come to the realization that there's more to us than what we own or where we work. And then there's a demographic of people close to retirement [who] are now realizing that they may have 25 to 35 more years of healthy living ahead of them, and that they want to do something bigger and better with their lives. So in that sense, there's really a transformation that's taking place.

Q: As a pollster, what is it like for you to watch the 2008 presidential election unfold?

A: As far as elections go, this is a great one. First of all, it's like a 1932 moment, where Franklin Roosevelt won. Or a 1980 moment, when Ronald Reagan won. Whatever happens on Election Day, America is going to get a change.

No. 2 is that we really have two very authentic characters leading both parties, both with very deep and personal stories, both representing a different kind of America. Barack Obama is the Jack Kennedy in this election, the torch has passed to a new generation of leadership and ... John McCain, a bona fide war hero, who, in many ways, represents two generations removed from Obama and the older generations of duty and patriotism and America first.

Q: What does the country's reaction to Sarah Palin as McCain's vice-presidential pick tell us about gender politics?

A: What I'm finding with Sarah Palin is her appeal is mainly to conservatives, and red meat for conservatives. She's combative, pugnacious; she'll be billed as a reformer.

But ... we're seeing a fascinating and ironic role-reversal, where feminists are saying she can't possibly raise her children, especially a special-needs child, and be a governor or a vice president. She should tend to her family and be a mom. And conservative men and women are saying, you go, girl, it's all about choice, and we always said it was. And I'm scratching my head here. And in that sense, it's sort of telling me it's not about gender anymore.

Q: You recently conducted a poll that showed about 60 percent of Americans would support a qualified, openly gay president. What does that poll — and others showing Americans are open to a woman president or an African-American president — tell us about Americans?

A: It tells us, first of all, that not too long ago they weren't ready for a gay president and they weren't afraid to say it. And they weren't ready for a woman president or an African-American president. So just the sheer numbers have moved.

But the proof is in the pudding, and history is going to be made Nov. 4, no matter which way people vote.

Q: You portray today's 18- to 29-year-olds — the "First Globals" — as more committed to finding common ground than previous generations. But won't they grow out of that?

A: They'll grow out of a lot of things, but not everything.

Today's 20-somethings are different than The Greatest Generation's 20-somethings. Different historical events have occurred, and with this cohort, the world is their playing field. Over half of them have passports, they socially network with people all over the world, they're in touch with global music, and global sports, global fashion. They're less wedded to a traditional definition of patriotism. They call themselves citizens of the planet Earth as much as they call themselves American citizens.

... On issues like abortion, they're a common-ground group. They say, "Give me the specific situation, and I'll tell you whether it's legitimate or not." These are a lot of the values that they're likely to carry with them into their 30s and 40s.

Q: You've conducted polls of citizens in the Middle East. What do the results of those polls say about how the U.S. is perceived in those nations? And what should U.S. citizens know about the attitudes of people in that part of the world?

A: Views toward America have declined over the last seven years that I've done this.

What's interesting to me is what one person told me in Beirut in 2007: "We have problems with the U.S., but we still love America."

They love American ideals, freedom and democracy. They don't like the way the U.S. government plays itself out as a nation of self-interest.

Emily Heffter: 206-464-8246 or eheffter@seattletimes.com