Primary to winnow the field of candidates

OLYMPIA — Don't count on Tuesday's primary election to predict whether Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire or Republican candidate Dino Rossi will win in November.

Although more than a million people are expected to vote, the primary shouldn't be viewed as a trial run for the general election. Experience suggests a large proportion of the voters will be party loyalists. Many independents will sit out the primary.

"That's not a good indicator of the state," said Matt Barreto, co-director of the Washington Poll, a public-opinion survey sponsored by the University of Washington. "Especially in Washington, where the largest identification is independent."

Still, Rossi and Gregoire have poured about $1 million each into broadcast advertising over the past four weeks, and independent political-action committees on both sides have spent another $1 million combined.

Advertising has been particularly heavy during TV broadcasts of the Olympics, where Rossi is spending about $260,000 for airtime. Gregoire's campaign would not comment about its Olympics advertising spending.

In the competitive 8th Congressional District, Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, remains focused on the general election, his campaign spokeswoman said. Reichert faces a tough challenge from Democrat Darcy Burner.

Burner launched her first television ad two weeks ago, while Reichert is doing only Internet video ads before the primary.

The purpose of the primary is to winnow the field of candidates in races across the state to two people who will appear on the November ballot.

In most cases, the outcome from Tuesday's vote is in little doubt.

Rossi and Gregoire are shoo-ins for the November ballot because of their name recognition and well-funded campaigns. So are Reichert and Burner in the 8th district.

But other primary races are more competitive.

In the state treasurer's race, Republican Allan Martin, the deputy state treasurer, and two Democrats, Rep. Jim McIntire and former chief state economist ChangMook Sohn, are vying to be on the general election ballot. The current treasurer, Mike Murphy, is not running for re-election.

Six candidates are running for state superintendent of public instruction, four for secretary of state, five for lieutenant governor, three for state auditor and three for insurance commissioner. However, the incumbents in all those races have the edge.

In addition, a few state legislative races in the Puget Sound area are considered competitive, primarily in districts where retirements have created open seats.

The state has a new primary system this year that lets voters cast ballots for any candidate, and the top two vote-getters in each race, regardless of party, move to the November ballot.

As a result, for the first time voters in November likely will see legislative races in which both candidates are from the same party.

In Seattle's liberal 36th Legislative District, Democratic candidates John Burbank and Reuven Carlyle are expected to attract most of the votes, leaving Republican Leslie Bloss off the November ballot.

Burbank and Carlyle are competing to replace veteran Democratic Rep. Helen Sommers, who is retiring from Olympia.

In the nearby 46th District, Democrats Gerry Pollet and Scott White should move on the general election. They are vying to replace McIntire, who left the Legislature to run for treasurer.

Many independents will sit out the primary because "you don't need to vote on Aug. 19, and it will still be Gregoire versus Rossi," Barreto said. "Any vote Gregoire gets now in the primary will just be from her hard-core supporters. The same for Rossi."

Stuart Elway, who runs a Seattle polling firm, and Secretary of State Sam Reed also said voters should not read too much into the results for the governor's race.

"There's going to be significantly larger turnout in the general election, and there will be more independents," Reed said.

He predicts about a 46 percent turnout for this year's primary. In 2004, about 45 percent of registered voters turned out for the primary and 82 percent voted in the general election. In other words, an additional 1.4 million people voted in the November election.

Although the primary results can't predict who'll win in November, the Rossi campaign has been busy trying to downplay expectations.

His campaign sent out an e-mail to reporters last week stating, "Based on historical data and recent polling data, our campaign does not expect to win in the primary."

The campaign also sent out a memo arguing that since 1972, Republican gubernatorial candidates have generally done worse in primary elections than in the general election when it comes to their party's overall share of the vote. The Rossi campaign, however, failed to note that the opposite was true in the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections.

Gregoire's campaign isn't saying much about what the primary results might mean, but said in an e-mail that it has "hundreds of volunteers knocking on doors and calling voters to make sure that people know they should vote August 19th."

In the 8th Congressional District, Burner's campaign spokesman, Sandeep Kaushik, also tried to lower expectations. Kaushik said Reichert has an advantage going into Tuesday's primary because he is the incumbent.

"We wouldn't be surprised if he outpolls us," he said.

Staff reporter Emily Heffter contributed to this story. Andrew Garber: 360-236-8268 or agarber@seattletimes.com