Anti-transit ads sum up worst case

It's a figure meant to astound people.

Opponents of Proposition 1 say in campaign commercials that the measure, to add transit lines and highway lanes, will cost voters $157 billion if they approve it Nov. 6 in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties.

The gigantic figure comes from Jim MacIsaac, a retired Bellevue engineer and adviser to light-rail critics.

Could the cost really go that high?

MacIsaac's number is a worst-case conjecture. It assumes that Sound Transit will run into severe cost overruns as it builds and operates the new lines and will need to collect the full tax for 50 years.

He calculated the proposed car-tab and sales taxes on the ballot, plus the existing Sound Transit sales tax, approved by voters in 1996, which would continue for decades to help pay for the next round of projects. (Sound Transit's existing car-tab tax sunsets in 2028.) MacIsaac also includes future tax dollars that pay off earlier-planned projects — such as a tunnel to Husky Stadium.

Add population growth and inflation, and he arrives at $157 billion collected by 2057.

Supporters of Proposition 1 say the cost is $18 billion. That figure is based on 2006 dollars and includes only trains and construction. It excludes inflation, operating costs, overhead and finance charges, which would bring the total to $38 billion by 2027, when the highway and transit projects are supposed to be finished. Backers acknowledge another $9 billion in debt payments afterward, for a total $47 billion.

Proposition 1 would authorize 50 miles of light-rail tracks from Seattle out to Lynnwood, to Overlake and to downtown Tacoma by 2027; road projects including new lanes on Interstate 405 from Renton to Bellevue; widening of Highway 9 in Snohomish County; and partial funding to replace the Highway 520 floating bridge.

The opponents' ad, with "$157,000,000,000" on a red background, appeared Saturday during ABC's telecast of the University of Washington football game against USC. Mark Baerwaldt, treasurer of notoprop1.org, said the campaign is buying more than $100,000 in radio and television ads per week. He said funders include himself, Bellevue Square developer Kemper Freeman, and Don Padelford, a bus-rapid-transit advocate. The Sierra Club, which opposes the roads plan, is leading a separate campaign effort.

The proponent campaign, at yesonroadsandtransit.org, is running commercials with localized messages that tell different areas which transportation projects they would get under Proposition 1.

Backers of the "Roads & Transit" proposal have argued it's unfair to include inflation. But MacIsaac's number also assumes Sound Transit will go far over its current budget estimates.

Sound Transit's plan for light rail in Seattle, approved in 1996, turned out to roughly double in cost.

Members of a state-appointed Expert Review Panel say the agency has learned from real-world experience building a Seattle-to-Tukwila line, to open in two years. A panel report said that "the resulting cost estimates provide a good sense, at this stage of system planning, of the likely costs for [Proposition 1] projects."

But the panel has warned of possible difficulties in putting light rail across one of the Interstate 90 floating bridges, and Sound Transit's own citizen-oversight panel believes system operating costs will rise rapidly.

Sound Transit Finance Director Brian McCartan has forecast that the agency will have enough money to reduce the tax rate by the 2030s, a few years after construction is finished. After completion, Sound Transit is legally bound to collect only enough for maintenance and operations, unless voters approve more projects, said spokesman Geoff Patrick.

Prophetic or not, MacIsaac's $157 billion scenario serves as a reminder that officials are asking for voter trust. The ballot title in Proposition 1 does not cap, or even mention, the overall cost. If the future turns bleak, state courts have given Sound Transit power to keep its taxes in place, for as long as needed to build and operate the lines, once voters give the green light.

In terms of your individual bill, proponents say Proposition 1 would add $150 a year in new sales taxes for an average household, based on state Department of Revenue models. Car-tab taxes would increase $80 on a $10,000 car.

Anti-Proposition 1 radio ads say the cost would be $2,000 per household, but that's an average based on 50 years of inflation, and includes business taxes that MacIsaac says would be passed along through higher prices on goods and services.

The TV ad also says:

• Proposition 1 "doubles, or even triples, the car-tab tax." That's true for many newer vehicles, as the road tax would collect about double what Sound Transit already charges. A $30 state fee and weight fees are not affected.

• Proposition 1 "doubles its part of the local sales tax." It is correct that Sound Transit's part of the sales tax, of four cents per $10 purchase, would increase to nine cents, and another one cent per $10 would go to roads. But it's not a doubling of the overall sales tax, which ranges from 8.5 percent to 8.9 percent in the areas voting on the plan.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com

Information in this story published on Oct. 2, 2007 was corrected on October 3, 2007. Due to an editing error, the story on Proposition 1 incorrectly stated that light rail is proposed for the 520 floating bridge. Light rail is proposed for one of the two Interstate 90 floating bridges.