Topic at Seattle health summit: pandemics, host of unknowns

Perhaps the greatest challenge in preparing for a possible flu pandemic is the host of unknowns.

What strain or strains of bird flu would be involved? How infectious would it be?

How rapidly would the disease be detected once it broke out, and how many more people would be infected before vaccines could be delivered and administered?

These were some of the concerns voiced Tuesday at the opening of Seattle's third-annual Pacific Health Summit, a gathering of heavy hitters from around the globe in the areas of disease research and international policy. This year's topic was pandemics, in response to the growing threat of bird flu, or H5N1.

The answers seem to lie in aggressive and far-reaching prevention and treatment. But that, in turn, elicits more questions: If a flu pandemic were to break out, it would take three months for the infection to peak in the global population, but six months for researchers to produce enough vaccines for everyone. Stockpiling vaccines is one solution, but who would have access to it, how much would it cost, and who, by the way, would foot the bill?

Panelists at the session -- which included keynote speaker Andrew von Eschenbach, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration -- focused on practical solutions: making highly portable equipment such as respirators and diagnostic equipment available at a moment's notice; surveillance and communication among countries so the disease is rapidly contained; and more broadly equipping developing nations with the tools to prevent and combat the disease.

Of course, they said, that takes time and money.

Tadataka Yamada, who heads the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's Global Health Program, proposed a tiered pricing system for developing and industrial nations.

Others pointed out that individual countries and global organizations should collaborate, sharing information and resources.

The good news is that vaccines are being developed that can respond to a variety of virus strains, said Jean Stéphenne, president and general manager with GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals.

Also, previous experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was an important test run -- increasing transparency and efficiency in the case of a similar situation, said Zhu Chen, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Several hundred scientists and policymakers attended the conference, which was by invitation only and organized by the Gates Foundation, the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. David Boyd, director of public affairs with GE Healthcare, a sponsor of the conference, said GE offers policymakers and scientists a chance to connect and collaborate informally and set concrete goals.

"People here will network, and leave with an action item," Boyd said. "Working groups are formed. Things happen."

Roxana Popescu: 206-464-2112 or rpopescu@seattletimes.com