Bringing housing data home to our readers

Housing sticker shock used to take our collective breath away; now it seems to bring just a very deep sigh.

The Seattle Times offered its first annual look at home prices in King and South Snohomish Counties in 2000, calling the report "Sticker Shock" to reflect how we all reacted to what was happening. In recent years, we've changed the name.

"I guess we are all over the shock now and have been calling it 'Home Values' the last couple of years," said Becky Bisbee, Times business editor.

Our story today says that single-family house appreciation last year was unexpectedly strong — 16 percent in King County for all of 2006. However, it has been gradually falling since the first quarter of last year, reaching 13 percent for the first quarter of this year.

Today's report is an exhaustive look at the home-price numbers, including why Seattle has boom-and-bust cycles. It provides advice for buyers, sellers and mortgage applicants, both new mortgage and refinance, on how to navigate these changing times. Tomorrow in The Times we explore the role condos play in providing affordable housing.

"This is one of those packages that only we do," Bisbee said. "Anyone who owns a house or is thinking about buying or selling would find it fascinating and invaluable.

"The heavy lifting is done by Justin Mayo, who crunches all the numbers from the assessor's office on all home transactions during the last year. Elizabeth Rhodes takes the numbers, works with Justin on massaging them. They poke and prod and probe for what's new and different. And, they always come up with something new to say. His grasp of the numbers and her encyclopedic knowledge are truly amazing."

Graphics by Mark Nowlin bring the data to life. Mark Deichmiller masterminded the online presentation, which includes maps that you can scroll around on, compare neighborhoods, prices, everything. If you like what you see in print, you'll love what's online.

"There are a lot of places readers can get housing information. With our annual series, we try to offer readers information they can't get anywhere else," Mayo said. "We provide a broad perspective of the market by analyzing data over the past year, 5 years, even 10 years. At the same time, we drill down to the neighborhood level (90 areas in King County and 22 in South Snohomish) to provide data for readers in the areas they live.

"All this is possible because we go to the primary source of information — King and Snohomish counties' property data — and perform the analyses ourselves. In addition to the statistics, we find the most relevant trends to write stories about each year."

Rhodes said the idea for today's story was "based on the concern people have that the housing market is cooling, and the 'bubble' bursting. National stories are saying this. But all real estate is local, so it made sense to explain to readers what's happening here. And economists say Seattle doesn't have a 'bubble.'

"The bottom line is that appreciation may be falling, but house prices aren't. They're consistently up, something we've seen annually for at least two decades. That's the proof that our market isn't tanking," she said.

Housing affordability is examined in tomorrow's story. "It shows that first-time buyers who earn the county median — about $65,000 in King and Snohomish counties — were priced out of all but three of 112 neighborhoods last year: Everett, Auburn and Enumclaw. That's if they were trying to buy the median-priced single-family house. This is down from nine neighborhoods in 2005," Rhodes said.

"However, that income last year would buy the median-priced condo in 31 out of 49 areas in King and South Snohomish counties. We're the only ones who produce the type of extensive neighborhood price / appreciation breakdowns that run with this project — in fact are the heart of it."

Our online presentation allows you to look at the numbers in many new ways, Deichmiller explained.

"We break down 2006 home-sales data into 112 neighborhoods in five geographic areas of King and South Snohomish counties. For each of those neighborhoods, you can find data on more than a dozen major criteria, including median price, median price per square foot, average 2005-2006 price change, average five-year price change, percentage of new homes sold and total homes sold in the neighborhood in several price ranges."

"Further, we put much of that information into a sortable display that can arrange the neighborhoods by any of several criteria. Want to know which neighborhood has the highest price per square foot? Highest overall median price? Highest average annual five-year appreciation? Lowest? Those answers are only a click away."

Condo information has been expanded this year, with data for 41 King County and eight Snohomish County neighborhoods. Again, one click lets you sort the information by any available criteria.

The Home Values online site also provides an archive of stories from previous installments of this project, going back to the 2000 "Sticker Shock" series that started it all.

What more could you want?

Inside The Times appears in the Sunday Seattle Times. If you have a comment on news coverage, write to Michael R. Fancher, P.O. Box 70, Seattle, WA 98111, call 206-464-3310 or send e-mail to mfancher@seattletimes.com. More columns at www.seattletimes.com/columnists