Warming climate may prove costly for state, study warns

A warming climate could cost Washington governments and businesses tens of millions of dollars every year in drought-stricken crops, forest fires and tightened water supplies, according to a new state study.

It is the first such analysis illuminating how rising temperatures and shifting snow patterns could ripple through the economy.

Yakima Valley farmers could experience more crop losses as snowpack declines. Forest fires could double in size, driving up the costs of fighting them and hurting tourism. Dairies in Whatcom County might produce less milk. Cities, including Seattle, could spend millions more on water conservation or expand their water-storage dams. More than 50 square miles of Washington land could wind up underwater if sea levels rise two feet.

"The impacts we found are significant," said Bob Doppelt, director of the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative, which led the study. "But we also think they're manageable."

The $100,000 study was funded by public money and a grant from the Energy Foundation, a coalition of groups interested in environmental issues. The research was overseen by a panel of scientists and state officials.

Winners and losers

The report didn't put an overall price tag on the cost of climate change. But the findings could help guide efforts to prepare for climate change while reducing the state's contributions to it, said Janice Adair, a top official at the state Department of Ecology.

There could be winners as well as losers in a warmer, rainier Washington.

Some varieties of wine grapes could flourish in Western Washington, even as warmer weather could make it harder for Eastern Washington vineyards to grow other types, according to the study.

The international push to reduce greenhouse gas is also creating a market for new technology and equipment, which Washington companies could tap into, the report said.

While it didn't estimate how much could come to the state, there is money to be made from energy technology, fuel cells, fuels made from vegetable matter, and more fuel-efficient machines, the report said. For example, Boeing's new 787 airplane is being designed to use less fuel than competing airplanes.

Long-term impact

The impacts of climate change could multiply in the distant future, if climate change proceeds unchecked, cautioned Doppelt.

The study looked at expected changes between now and the 2040s, assuming average temperatures would have risen between 2 and 3 degrees Fahrenheit.

"The greatest economic impacts are likely to be in the second part of this century," he said. "In order to avoid these long-term impacts we really have to start now."

A sobering note came from another new report that shows greenhouse-gas emissions are rising in Washington. That comes after a brief drop tied to the 2001 economic recession and energy crisis.

By 2004 — the latest data available — the state had returned to steady increases in emissions. Since 1990, greenhouse gas puffed from Washington tail pipes, power plants and furnaces has increased more than 12 percent, to roughly 88 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

For comparison, the international Kyoto treaty to reduce greenhouse gases calls for nations like the U.S. to bring emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The U.S. is not taking part in the treaty. The state's annual emissions are roughly 0.3 percent of global greenhouse-gas production.

Warren Cornwall: 206-464-2311 or wcornwall@seattletimes.com