Anti-Bush mood reached down to our state races

Republicans were struggling Wednesday to grasp the enormity of their election losses in the state Legislature.

At least eight Republican incumbents were swept from office, and the party lost several open seats previously held by Republicans. Democrats didn't lose a single seat and now hold their strongest majorities in more than two decades.

Who deserves the credit — or blame — for the Democratic rout? Did Republicans here get dragged under by President Bush and the war in Iraq? Or was it an endorsement by voters of the job that Gov. Christine Gregoire and the Democrats have been doing in Olympia?

It was probably some of both. But based on what happened Tuesday in statehouses across the country — and even in some local-government races in Washington — it's clear the anti-Bush mood wreaked havoc on state and local Republican candidates who have nothing to do with national politics.

"It's all about Iraq," said Chris Vance, former chairman of the state Republican Party.

The Democratic wave was blamed for Republican casualties up and down the ballot.

State Supreme Court candidate Steve Johnson, a Republican state senator, cited it as the key factor in his overwhelming loss to incumbent Justice Susan Owens.

So did Spokane County Commissioner Phil Harris, a three-term Republican incumbent who was losing his seat to a community activist.

Nationwide, Democrats now control both houses of the legislature in 23 states — the highest total in more than a decade. Republicans control both houses in 16 states and the rest are either split or still undecided.

With an estimated net gain of nearly 300 seats, the vote resulted in the most one-sided gains for either party since the Republican romp of 1994. The pickup of legislative seats by Democrats will give the party's lawmakers more power to shape state policy and to play a key role in drawing congressional districts.

"At the end of the day, the tide really just moved in one direction," said Tim Storey, analyst for the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures, the group that estimated the Democratic gain.

In this state, Democrats expect to pick up at least five additional seats in the state Senate. That would give them a near supermajority of 31 seats, vs. 18 for Republicans.

In the House, Democrats say they're looking at a potential gain of seven seats or more. That would give them at least a 63-34 majority.

Republican leaders concede they've lost seats, but say they're not sure how many yet.

Another question looming large Wednesday: What will Democrats do with their overwhelming majorities?

Democrats in Washington state aren't announcing any detailed agendas just yet but have indicated they want to do more to improve education, transportation and health care. Republicans interpret that to mean more government spending and higher taxes.

Some of the biggest apparent gains for Democrats are in GOP-held suburban seats.

In the Eastside's 48th District, incumbent Sen. Luke Esser, R-Bellevue, conceded defeat Wednesday to Rep. Rodney Tom, D-Bellevue. Tom is a former Republican House member who switched parties earlier this year.

Next door, in the 45th District, Republicans were losing in the Senate race and in one of the House races.

"I'm sitting in a county that is repudiating the party," said Rep. Fred Jarrett, R-Mercer Island, a moderate Republican who's leading his Democratic challenger.

With Democrats ahead in seven of the eight legislative races on the Eastside, Jarrett said he worries the GOP is becoming a party of rural and Eastern Washington.

The damage for Republicans wasn't confined to the Eastside.

In Snohomish County's 44th District state Senate race, Republican Sen. Dave Schmidt, of Mill Creek, was losing. And in Spokane, Republican incumbent Sen. Brad Benson lost in the 6th District, a seat the Democrats haven't held since before WW II.

One of the most vivid examples of how bad things went for Republicans is in the 24th District. Rep. Jim Buck, a six-term Republican incumbent who in recent elections has routinely won 60 percent of the vote, lost in a district that covers most of the Olympic Peninsula.

For Democrats, the election was a bit of sweet revenge for 1994 — the year Republicans took control of the state House by picking up 30 seats and nearly erased a seven-seat Democratic majority in the Senate.

Benson, Buck and Schmidt were all first elected to the Legislature that year.

So what happened?

State Democratic leaders give a nod to the national scene, but argue their record in Olympia and the quality of their candidates played a bigger role.

Bryan Jones, a political-science professor at the University of Washington, doesn't buy it.

"Go ask the average guy. I don't think they [Democrats] have done a bad job. But it's not why they've won seats," he said. "This was an unmitigated national disaster for the Republican Party."

Esser blames his defeat on a national anti-GOP wave.

"It was a heavy wind we were fighting against, that's for sure," said Esser, who was battling for his second term. It was "just a bad year to run with an 'R' next to your name."

While the Democrats have controlled both houses of the Legislature and the governor's office for the past two years, party leaders have pushed a pragmatic, largely business-friendly agenda.

Now that Democrats hold overwhelming majorities, Republicans predict their agenda will shift sharply to the left. Many of the Democrats' longtime allies will likely have high expectations.

"They're tired of being told 'not now,' " Vance said. "They're saying, 'if not now, then when?' "

Christian Sinderman, a political consultant who has worked closely with legislative Democrats, agreed those pressures will be there. He said Tuesday's election amounted to a clear mandate for the Democrats — but a mandate to continue on a pragmatic course, not run wild.

"There's a difference between understanding the parameters of a mandate and having it become a tool for arrogance," Sinderman said.

Seattle Times reporter Ashley Bach and The Associated Press contributed to this story. Ralph Thomas: 360-943-9882 or rthomas@seattletimes.com