GOP trailing in cash race for state legislative races

OLYMPIA — Here's one more thing for Washington Republicans to worry about — money.

When it comes to state legislative races, Democrats have more cash in this election and are outspending Republicans in several key Senate races in the Central Puget Sound area in which incumbent GOP lawmakers have retired.

Overall, political-action committees tied to Democratic caucuses in the state House and Senate have raised about $3.7 million in cash and in-kind contributions this year compared with $2.1 million for the Republican PACs.

Democrats also appear to have the edge in independent expenditures supporting their candidates.

State Republican Party Chairwoman Diane Tebelius said she's not worried about the difference in cash and predicts her party will do well in Tuesday's election.

"I don't ever think that [money] is the defining issue," Tebelius said, noting her party has "probably the best crop of candidates we've seen in years."

Other Republicans aren't so sure about success and worry the fundraising disadvantage and national issues such as the war in Iraq could cost them seats in the Legislature. That, in turn, could push the GOP toward becoming a party that mostly represents rural and Eastern Washington.

The state Senate, where Democrats hold a slim majority, is where Republicans have the most influence. Democrats have a larger majority in the House.

"If the Republican Party becomes a rural party ... I think we become largely irrelevant as a governing party," said Rep. Fred Jarrett, R-Mercer Island. "If we can't articulate a coherent case for Republicanism in the suburbs and in the city of Seattle, we might as well give up and go home."

Although money isn't everything, "it makes sure you can get your story across," Jarrett said. "If your story is a compelling one and you don't have any money, it's very difficult to win."

People in both parties say Democrats could pick up at least one Senate seat in the Puget Sound area and possibly up to three, if things go badly for the GOP.

Democrats have a 26-23 majority in the Senate, with a conservative member, Sen. Tim Sheldon, D-Potlach, who often sides with Republicans. They want to pad their majority.

Democrats so far have outspent Republican candidates in District 45, where Sen. Bill Finkbeiner, R-Kirkland, decided not to run again; in District 47, where Sen. Stephen Johnson, R-Kent, retired to run for the state Supreme Court; and in District 26, where Sen. Bob Oke, R-Port Orchard, also decided not to seek re-election.

In District 48, Rep. Rodney Tom, D-Medina, has raised about $325,000 in his bid to unseat Sen. Luke Esser, R-Bellevue. That's close to the $355,000 raised by Esser.

Tom is a former Republican House member who became a Democrat earlier this year.

The District 26 race offers perhaps the most extreme example of a fundraising gap. Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer has raised more than $400,000 in his bid for Oke's seat.

"That is a ridiculous amount of money," said his Republican opponent, Jim Hines, who has raised about $120,000.

Hines said he's spending long days doorbelling and waving campaign signs. "We're going to fight to the finish and see if we can't steal this one in the end," he said. But he added, "It would be considered a bit of an upset if I won."

Kilmer said it's nice to have the money but "what's more important is shoe leather," noting he's been knocking on plenty of doors.

At a certain point in state legislative races, some analysts say, having additional money doesn't help that much. There are only so many signs candidates can buy and so many fliers that can be stuffed into mail boxes.

However, people who follow state politics closely see a shift to television in local races this year.

"What you're seeing for the first time is significant amounts of cable TV for these legislative campaigns," said Chris Vance, a former chairman of the state Republican Party who's now a consultant at The Gallatin Group, a public-affairs firm.

Vance added, "That's because they have so much money that you max out your mail. You've got to spend it somewhere."

Dan McDonald, a former Eastside Republican state senator from Yarrow Point, said that even if Democrats pick up seats this election, he's not worried about the future of his party.

"It's always a setback when you lose any seat. You have to figure out how it is you're going to put together a coalition that puts you in the majority," he said.

The situation was reversed in 1994, when Republicans had the edge and swept large numbers of Democrats out of office, he said. "I'm always amazed at how these things switch back and forth."

Andrew Garber: 360-943-9882 or agarber@seattletimes.com