Is better bus service worth $25 a household?

Riding the bus could become a whole lot easier on some of King County's busiest bus routes — if voters decide it's worth the cost.

Although the Transit Now sales-tax increase on the Nov. 7 ballot would fund improved bus service in nearly every reach of the county, its showpiece would be Aurora Avenue North and four other heavily used lines.

During the day on those "RapidRide" routes, buses would never be more than 10 minutes apart and, at some stops, an electronic reader board would display whether the next bus is running on time.

"With those reader boards, you'll be able to say, 'I have time to go ... get a latte.' It takes the waiting out of riding a bus," said People for Transit Now campaign manager Rob Johnson.

The tax measure appears on the ballot as county Proposition 2.

Without more money, proponents such as King County Executive Ron Sims say buses will be unable to keep up with demand as the county population grows.

Opponents, who aren't spending any cash on their low-key campaign, say taxpayers shouldn't give Metro more money because it didn't keep its promises the last time taxes went up.

If approved, the increase of one-tenth of a percent in the sales tax would put up to 20 percent more Metro Transit buses on the road over the next 10 years, said Sims, who proposed the tax in April.

The sales tax on a $10 purchase would increase 1 cent, bringing the total sales tax on that purchase to 89 cents in most parts of King County. The tax, which would raise $50 million in the first year, would cost the typical household an estimated $25.

Without that infusion of cash to pay for better service, more people will choose to commute by car, Sims said.

Metro calculates that current funds would allow it to increase transit service by only 5 percent between 2005 and 2016 while the number of jobs — a key indicator of demand for transit — would rise by 25 percent. "That is unacceptable," Sims said. "We would be a system going backwards, not forwards to meet public demand."

Transit Now advocates include labor unions, environmental groups and several suburban cities. The campaign has raised $143,000.

Top contributors are International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and Amalgamated Transit Union locals, on-bus ad firm Titan Outdoor, and bus manufacturer New Flyer.

Transportation consultant Bill Eager and former state Rep. Will Knedlik have argued against the transit tax in the voters pamphlet and in a number of forums. If Metro and Sound Transit had kept their promises when voters agreed to higher taxes in 1996 and 2000, they say, Metro wouldn't have to ask for higher taxes now.

Backed by a study by the conservative Washington Policy Center, Eager and Knedlik note that Metro added less than half the additional hours of service it promised when voters approved a sales-tax increase of two-tenths of a percent in 2000. "We're being asked for the third time to pay for the same service," Knedlik said.

Transit officials say they didn't deliver the advertised amount of service because retail sales — and thus sales-tax revenues — unexpectedly dropped during the dot-com bust. All planned park-and-ride improvements were completed, but planned service increases were curtailed.

Despite the end of the recession, officials say, the rising costs of diesel fuel and employee benefits keep them from catching up with demand.

Knedlik said the recession is no excuse for delivering less service than voters expected: "I think that is the government equivalent of 'The dog ate my homework.' "

King County Councilwoman Julia Patterson called Knedlik's criticism "so ridiculous. ... We aren't magic here. If the tax doesn't come in, we can't provide the project or the service."

Sound Transit, for its part, says it has delivered what it promised: frequent, daily buses serving 20 cities in three counties, plus new park-and-rides, transit centers and HOV freeway ramps.

At the heart of Transit Now are five planned RapidRide corridors where buses would run so frequently proponents say riders would have no need for schedules.

That "bus rapid transit" service, running mostly in high-occupancy-vehicle lanes, would speed up with the help of two new technologies: "Queue jumping" in some intersections would give buses a green light before other traffic; "signal priority" would keep a light green a tad longer when a bus approaches.

Planned RapidRide routes are: Shoreline to downtown Seattle on Aurora Avenue, West Seattle to downtown via the West Seattle Bridge, Ballard to the stadium district by way of Seattle Center, Federal Way to Tukwila along Pacific Highway South, and Bellevue to Redmond through Crossroads and Overlake.

Transit Now also would:

• Upgrade service on 30 other high-ridership routes so buses would stop every 15 to 30 minutes. Not every route would necessarily meet the long-term goal of a 15-minute headway, said Metro's service development manager, Victor Obeso, but all of those routes would get more hours of service, some in the middle of the day, others at night or on the weekend.

• Expand service in selected suburbs and developing areas from Duvall to Black Diamond.

• Fund partnerships in which Metro and businesses or local governments would jointly pay for buses serving specific locations.

• Expand Access paratransit service for people with disabilities and Vanpool and VanShare programs.

Altogether, the transit tax would add 525,000 to 700,000 hours of bus service a year, depending on sales-tax collections.

Metro predicts 50,000 to 60,000 people would switch from cars to buses for their daily commute because of the improved service. The 35 routes targeted for major service upgrades are within walking distance — a quarter-mile — of nearly one-third of King County residents, Obeso said.

Not everyone looks forward to more bus service.

Renay Bennett isn't happy about the four Route 240 buses — two in each direction — that go through her Bellevue neighborhood every hour on one of the "high-ridership" routes where Metro wants to double the number of buses.

"I see these buses go by all day long; they are 90 percent empty," Bennett said. "I just think it's a waste of our tax dollars to be putting extra bus services in place where it's not warranted."

Metro's Obeso said ridership on that route has gone up 36 percent since 2001 to an average of more than 30 passengers per trip.

The only King County Council member who voted not to put Transit Now on the ballot was Reagan Dunn, R-Bellevue, who said he feared it would jeopardize passage of a larger regional package of highway and Sound Transit improvements.

That package, if passed, could add $250 or more to the average household's sales tax and motor-vehicle excise tax.

Advocates of Transit Now say buses will be more important than ever when reconstruction of the Highway 520 floating bridge and the Alaskan Way Viaduct snarls area traffic.

Beyond that shorter-term challenge, says Transit Now campaign manager Johnson, the Puget Sound Regional Council predicts the region will grow by 1 million jobs and 1-½ million residents by 2040.

"That's the size of the Portland metropolitan region moving to Seattle," Johnson says. "Those people are going to need ways to get around. If we don't have great transit service — which is much less expensive to build and maintain than road capacity — then I think we're going to be in trouble."

Keith Ervin: 206-464-2105 or kervin@seattletimes.com