Shifting demographics drive school-closure list

Just down the hill from High Point Elementary School, construction is under way on more than 1,500 homes.

The developer, the Seattle Housing Authority, estimates more than 1,000 school-age children will move in by 2010. And Seattle Public Schools' projections in 2002 bear that out: The number of school-age kids in the area around High Point, the district predicted, would grow by 75 percent between 2004 and 2012.

But High Point, in West Seattle, is one of nine schools a citizens committee recommends to close in the 2007-08 school year. Why? School-district enrollment projections from 2004 showed the number of school-age area children would shrink by 25 percent in a decade.

It's one of several enrollment projections that changed drastically in a two-year period, and it helps demonstrate how uncertain the data used for school closures can be.

A committee charged with recommending schools to close looked at lots of data. It based its recommendations not only on enrollment but also on building condition, academic progress and parent satisfaction.

But declining enrollment played a role, especially in Southeast and Southwest Seattle, where more buildings are under capacity.

District demographer Rachel Cassidy said enrollment projections are difficult because the district has to predict not only how many children will be born, but also how many will enroll in public school and how many will stay in the area. With Seattle's rising housing prices and rapidly changing neighborhoods, that can be a challenge, she said.

"The long-range projection of such small areas is extremely difficult to do accurately, so it's almost a guarantee that they will be wrong when you start looking at that level," she said.

Projections for larger areas are more accurate, she said. In general, Seattle Public Schools predicts schools will grow north of the ship canal and shrink in the south.

Sacajawea Elementary School parents are using the district's latest enrollment projections to fight the proposed closure of their kids' school. The district's numbers show that Sacajawea's school-age population might grow in the next eight years, and parents argued that the district will need the capacity Sacajawea offers.

Sacajawea parent MaryAnn Barron Wagner said studying the capacity at various schools, plus the district's latest enrollment projections, convinced her that the district shouldn't close any North End schools.

"The whole North End is expected to grow in enrollment — there's documentation for that — and the seats available are extremely limited," she said. "So where would the children go?"

Demographers usually forecast that population trends will continue, but sometimes trends change.

For example, in 2002, the district projected that Emerson Elementary's enrollment area (known as its "reference area") would gain 67 percent more elementary-school-age children between 2004 and 2012.

Then, over the next two years, about 50 children moved out of the Emerson area — a big loss for an area with only about 500 children. So new projections in 2004 predicted an entirely different trend: that Emerson would lose 27 percent of its school-age kids by 2014. Emerson is on the citizens committee list to close, and an alternative program, The New School, would move into its building.

The Seattle Housing Authority questions the district's numbers, at least when it comes to schools near its new developments. The agency is demolishing and rebuilding several large public-housing developments around the city.

"What they may not be seeing is that we are doubling the density," said director Tom Tierney. The High Point development previously had 716 units. When the project is complete in 2009, it will have more than 1,600.

He has written a letter to the district's citizens committee to express his concern. The housing authority requires its larger units to be filled by families. The authority knows the makeup of the 8,500 families on its waiting list, and it has a pretty good idea of how many kids are moving in, he said.

Cassidy said the district predicted some increase because of the new developments but believes that will be outweighed by families fleeing the Seattle district to find cheaper housing.

Between 2000 and 2005, 1,373 new homes were built in housing-authority developments in the southeast portion of the city, but the school district lost 648 students.

It's hard to compare Seattle Public Schools' numbers with other projections because the city of Seattle, King County and other regional forecasting groups don't project the number of children — just people.

The Puget Sound Regional Council agrees that Seattle's North End would probably grow faster between 2000 and 2010 than the South End.

Seattle Times staff reporter Justin Mayo contributed to this report.

Emily Heffter: 206-464-8246 or eheffter@seattletimes.com