Everett-Seattle rail ridership more than double since June

Weekday ridership on Sound Transit's Sounder commuter-rail line between Everett and Seattle has more than doubled since a second daily round-trip train was added in June.

The growth has exceeded Sound Transit's modest, scaled-back expectations for the line, which began operating with one daily round-trip train — and half as many riders as Sound Transit had forecast — two years ago.

Before the second train started running June 6, the Sounder Everett line averaged a little more than 300 daily "boardings" — one round-trip passenger counts as two boardings.

In October and November, average weekday boardings topped 700.

"It looks like it's starting to catch on," said Marty Minkoff, the agency's transit-services director, who had estimated in late May that the second train would boost ridership by only about 15 percent.

Through Dec. 18, passengers had taken more than 147,000 one-way trips on the line in 2005, exceeding Sound Transit's revised target of 125,000 for the year. The total includes more than 30,000 who rode special trains to and from weekend Seahawks and Mariners games.

Minkoff attributed most of the increase to the added flexibility the line now offers: Riders can choose from two southbound trains that leave Everett 30 minutes apart in the morning, and two northbound trains that leave Seattle's King Street Station 40 minutes apart in the late afternoon. The trains also stop in Edmonds.

Rising gasoline prices also may have pushed more passengers onto the train, Minkoff said. But ridership has remained high even as gas prices dropped, Sound Transit spokesman Lee Somerstein added.

Ridership also rose when Sound Transit added trains to its Tacoma-Seattle Sounder line, first in 2002 and again in September. But the percentage increases weren't nearly as large.

The ridership bump since June is a rare piece of good news for the 35-mile Everett line, which has a troubled history of schedule delays and cost overruns.

The first train started running in December 2003, three years later than voters were promised when they approved the line in 1996 as part of a package of regional rail and bus improvements.

The line's $385 million capital cost is four times greater than the original estimate. Sound Transit's long-range plan now calls for just four daily round-trip trains, down from the six in the 1996 plan.

Sound Transit critics said the ridership increase doesn't alter their fundamental criticism of the Everett line. Even if it reaches its long-term ridership goals, they say, it will require enormous taxpayer subsidies and do little to relieve traffic congestion.

Even with higher ridership in 2005, operating costs per one-way passenger are likely to exceed $30, once final numbers for the year are tallied. And that doesn't factor in capital costs.

"The cost-per-rider numbers on that train are absolutely horrendous," said John Niles, technical director of the Coalition for Effective Transportation Alternatives (CETA), an anti-rail group. "Sound Transit would do better to put all that money into improved bus service."

Transportation consultant Jim MacIsaac, another CETA leader, questioned whether the commuter-rail line is taking cars off the road. Many passengers may be former bus riders, he suggested.

Some are, Somerstein said, but others are former drive-alone commuters. Statistics weren't immediately available.

When Sound Transit kicked off Everett-Seattle train service two years ago, it forecast 175,000 boardings in 2004, 200,000 in 2005 and 250,000 in 2006. But just 97,000 one-way riders took the train in 2004, and the agency later acknowledged its projections were too optimistic and scaled them back.

The latest estimate is for 150,000 boardings in 2006. The ridership increase in recent months suggests that forecast may be low, Minkoff acknowledged.

Sound Transit's long-range target is 600,000 annual boardings. To help achieve that, the agency plans to build another station in Mukilteo and add two more round-trip trains by the end of 2007.

Agnes Govern, Sound Transit's capital-projects director, said Mukilteo station construction should begin late this year and finish by mid-2007. But delays in obtaining environmental permits for needed track improvements have put the timetable for the third and fourth trains at risk, she added.

Under Sound Transit's agreement with Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway (BNSF), which owns the tracks, the new trains can't start running until two years after the permits are granted. Govern said those permits won't be issued until June, which would push the start dates for the third and fourth trains back to mid-2008.

Sound Transit is negotiating with BNSF and is hopeful service can expand on schedule in December 2007, Govern said.

Sound Transit's board is considering submitting another package of transit taxes and projects to voters, perhaps this fall.

Additional stations and parking on the Everett-Seattle line are among the projects under consideration, but more daily trips aren't in the picture.

Eric Pryne: 206-464-2231 or epryne@seattletimes.com