Projected big spending by NASCAR fans draws questions

In a typical Nextel Cup race weekend, fans stuff their backpacks with NASCAR T-shirts, flags, caps, even gadgets that let them listen in on conversations between drivers and their pit crews.

They buy beer and snacks. When the race is over, they blow hundreds of dollars shopping and visiting tourist attractions. Then they go out for a nice dinner before settling down in their $200-a-night hotel rooms.

At least that's what the studies for track-developer International Speedway Corp. (ISC) show.

State officials balked when a 2004 report by Seattle-based consultant Berk & Associates report estimated that fans visiting the Seattle area for a weekend of NASCAR races at a proposed track would spend about $700 each. So newer numbers that raised the estimate to $1,000 per fan baffled them even more.

"That's a lot of dough," said state Treasurer Mike Murphy, an opponent of a Kitsap County track proposal.

ISC plans to ask state legislators to pledge $166 million in bonds to pay for almost half of the proposed $345 million track. The money to repay the bonds would come from new sales taxes on items ISC says race fans would buy. In addition, ISC wants to use a ticket tax to pay for about 4 percent of the track costs.

ISC officials expect two major race weekends a year, but say they can't guarantee a major race.

Kitsap County has hired a financial consultant to look at the numbers. Peter Moy, of FCS Group in Redmond, said he couldn't comment until after a public meeting this afternoon in Bremerton. At the meeting, local officials will be briefed about the ISC proposal and the legislative process.

Kitsap County Commissioner Chris Endresen said she hopes Moy will compare the figures to actual spending at other tracks. Of particular concern to her: Berk's numbers assume the stands at the 80,000-seat track will be 98 percent full at all the races.

She thinks many of the fans would spend money in King County, which she questions. In the proposed plan, the bonds would be repaid with sales taxes from Mason, Kitsap and Pierce counties only.

As company lobbyists begin their pitch to legislators, their biggest hurdle may be a resistance to spending state money on a private business project.

Concerns over the inflating figures in two Berk reports put a price on that debate. If ISC is overestimating how much its fans will spend, the state won't make enough in taxes to repay the debt.

Figures doubted

Some state leaders say they doubt the company's figures.

"Who says people are going to spend $1,000 here?" said Sen. Margarita Prentice, D-Renton, the chairwoman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee. "They've never come down to Earth."

Prentice said the company hasn't paid attention to the problems with the location — accessible only by a two-lane highway. She said on a scale of 1 to 10, the project's chances of getting through the Legislature are "a negative 1."

Berk & Associates originally approached the state with even higher numbers, said Irv Lefberg, chief of forecasting for the state's Office of Financial Management.

The state analyzed the numbers and asked Berk to lower them for the final report that was released to the public. Lefberg said the numbers in the current report are "reasonable" — at least according to the reports ISC provided.

"We certainly weren't able to say we accept everything in the study," he said. "But we are able to say that the basic assumptions that they use in the study are reasonable and that they used standard methods for doing this type of study."

He attributed the difference between the reports on inflation and more accurate data. Berk did the first study for a task force of economic-development interests in the counties. It did the second study for ISC, so ISC was more forthcoming with its data, said Michael Hodgins of Berk & Associates.

And the numbers do line up with studies ISC has done elsewhere.

A 2001 study for the Kansas City Sports Commission found that the Kansas Speedway brought about $136 million into the local economy annually, and another 2001 study commissioned by the Phoenix International Raceway found that that track had a direct annual impact of about $132 million. Those aren't too far from the $139.5 million Berk projected a Kitsap County speedway would generate.

Silverdale race fan

If anything, the estimates are low, said Peggy Anderson, a Silverdale race fan who goes to a couple of races a year with her husband.

She estimates they spend about $5,000 each on a five-day trip, including travel. Hotel rates are higher on race weekends, she said, and they often spend time before and after the races visiting other tourist attractions in the area.

And they do spend a lot of money on souvenirs. "That's where you get the best selection, usually," she said.

Anderson even bought tickets this year to a Miami race she couldn't attend, just so she could establish an account with an ISC-owned track. The account number will give her an edge when she buys her season tickets to the Bremerton track, she said.

"These NASCAR fans are just avid fans and they spend a lot of money when they go on these trips," she said.

Emily Heffter: 206-464-8246 or eheffter@seattletimes.com