Significance of war's death toll questioned

It was a milestone hard to miss, and hundreds of newspapers around the country — including this one — made sure you didn't.

Military deaths in Iraq surpassed 2,000 on Oct. 25, and the nation's response surprised even those who follow events in Iraq full time. Remembrances of the fallen provoked various reactions: grief from fellow soldiers, resolve from President Bush, and, if public-opinion polls are accurate, a deepening sense that America made a terrible mistake.

But the death count did not carry strategic significance, several observers said last week.

From the standpoint of the nation's fighters, nothing changed in the days before and after the number of U.S. military killed ticked past 2,000.

To hear soldiers tell it, progress is being made in Iraq despite the costs. "This is the most evil enemy freedom-loving people have ever faced," said Col. Robert Brown during a recent welcome-home ceremony at Fort Lewis. "Freedom will triumph."

But the overall situation remains a mixed bag, according to data compiled by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The Iraq Index tracks war deaths, the Iraqi unemployment rate, hours of electricity supplied and dozens of other variables.

Things may be getting better, but it would be hard to convince the average Iraqi of that, Brookings researchers said.

Whether American forces will stay long enough to witness substantial improvement may ultimately be a political question, not a military one.

On Capitol Hill, even longtime opponents of the war say news of 2,000 dead won't tip the scales either way.

And so the nation is left to contemplate so many lost lives in a conflict that, like others in history, has taken longer and been costlier than everyone had expected.

By the time Fort Lewis commanders unfurled the battle flags of the Army's 1st Brigade, 25th Infantry Division on a parade ground on Oct. 27, the 2,000th American military death had already been recorded.

The brigade of 4,000 soldiers, known as the Lancers, had recently returned from a year's deployment around Mosul in northern Iraq.

And while the brass did not mention the grim record in speeches that day, cannons were fired to remember the 34 Lancers who died, and dozens of injured men, some in wheelchairs, some missing limbs, joined their comrades for the ceremony.

"This enemy's goal is to control the entire Middle East by way of a Taliban-like regime," Gen. James Dubik said in a speech. "These men and women before you prevented that goal from being achieved."

Later, during a celebration for the troops, Lt. Col. Michael Gibler of the 3rd Battalion, 21st Infantry Regiment, said it was difficult to watch television coverage of Iraq. The focus has been on bombings and casualties, he said, without giving equal weight to the positive.

The brigade refurbished or built 45 schools, improved four hospitals and rebuilt 23 roads and bridges, among other work.

And Lancers took the fight to the enemy.

Tips about insurgents' whereabouts started pouring in and commanders recruited reliable sources, such as the Iraqi shopkeeper who closed his store as a way to warn troops that a bomb had been buried nearby.

Instead of being targets, the brigade went on the offensive, setting up counter-ambushes. Lancer snipers, hidden on rooftops, killed insurgents who got out of their cars to fire rocket-propelled grenades and assault rifles at military vehicles left as bait.

Still, Nina Kamp, one of the authors of the Iraq Index, said: "There is not a lot of good security news."

Fifty-four U.S. troops were killed by homemade bombs in October, compared with 12 for the same period last year. Marine Gen. Peter Pace attributed the spike in bombings to insurgents trying to disrupt the Oct. 15 referendum, but deaths from explosives have been higher all this year than in 2004.

About 27,000 Iraqi civilians have died since the war began, according to the Iraq Index.

The State Department estimated that less electricity was generated in Iraq last month than in October 2004. And the unemployment rate continues to hover between 27 and 40 percent.

Polls of Iraqis reflect that 55 percent cite inadequate electricity as their chief concern. Thirteen percent pointed to insurgent violence.

Kamp said she was surprised that the 2,000th death received so much attention.

Of all the factors she tracks, the total number of casualties does not, by itself, lead to any sweeping conclusions, she said.

"The war is not going anywhere different than it was at 1,999," she said. "I look at it as a lot of lives being lost. In terms of evaluating progress, it's arbitrary."

The political will

A CBS News Poll taken from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 — after news broke about the 2,000th death — reported that 64 percent said the war was not worth the loss of American life and other costs.

But the political will to change course in Iraq is difficult to gauge.

Indeed, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., an outspoken critic of the Bush administration, has not demanded an immediate withdrawal of troops, instead focusing on the need to produce a clear exit strategy.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Pelosi acknowledged that Democrats were divided on whether to demand the troops leave Iraq now.

Rep. Jim McDermott, D-Seattle, who has consistently been one of Congress' most vocal opponents of the war, said he is saddened whenever he reads biographies of soldiers killed in combat.

"Two thousand is 2,000 too many," he said. "None of them should have happened."

The commemoration, however, did not change the fundamental debate.

"I don't think there's any sweeping political change," he said. "The outrage I kept thinking you'll see has not materialized. I must say I'm amazed by it."

McDermott wants the troops home after Iraq's national elections on Dec. 15. As for the chaos that could engulf the nation, he said: "What could be worse than what's going on" now?

An ongoing debate

Retired Lt. Col. James Carafano, a Bush supporter, said Americans have always debated war.

Ask the average northerner during the Civil War why he was fighting, and you'd hear answers ranging from freeing the slaves to defeating states' rights to padding the wallets of New York war profiteers, he said.

"When democracies go to war, they continue to debate whether they should go before, during and 50 years after," said Carafano, a scholar with the conservative Heritage Foundation.

He contends there is no viable policy besides the one currently pursued by the administration.

Whatever milestones the media choose to commemorate, the nation's policy won't change, he maintains, considering the Republicans are mostly united in support of the president, and the opposition party is unable to reach consensus about an alternative.

The only thing that will likely alter the military's course in Iraq, he said, is the next presidential election, when a new occupant in the White House will be forced to confront the numbers of killed in action. And they will surely be higher than today's.

"Two years from now," Carafano said, "it's all up for grabs."

Alex Fryer: 206-464-8124 or afryer@seattletimes.com