Arctic refuge drilling rides on budget vote

After a 25-year battle between environmentalists and the oil industry, Congress is embarking on the Republican Party's best chance in decades to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to oil drilling.

The Senate this morning voted to keep alive a provision to allow drilling on a portion of ANWR's windswept coastal plain, kicking off a last-minute scramble to settle the issue before lawmakers head home for the holidays.

But how Congress ultimately resolves the country's most divisive environmental battle may have little to do with caribou, wilderness or the need for domestic energy. Republican leaders are including the provision in budget packages immune from filibuster by Democrats, so the future of the refuge ultimately may be driven by issues having nothing to do with oil. The Senate this afternoon passed its budget package 52-47 with the ANWR provision intact.

"The real determinant is not ANWR, but issues such as Medicaid, Medicare and budget cuts," said John Katz, a special adviser to Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski, and a lobbyist for the state in Washington, D.C. "For me, the real question is, will Congress pass a budget package at all?"

The ANWR fight has grown over the decades from an unlikely proposal about remote tundra to a marquee national debate pitting the Republican energy strategy and the quest for domestic oil against Democrats' fight to preserve pristine wild lands.

Democrats and a half-dozen moderate Republicans in the past have halted drilling on the 19 million-acre refuge by threatening filibusters, but those aren't allowed on budget bills.

In 1995, the Republican-controlled Congress approved drilling on 1.5 million acres of ANWR through the budget process, but it was vetoed by President Clinton. President Bush, on the other hand, has twice campaigned with opening ANWR as a key component of his energy strategy.

But with so many other program cuts and tax issues in play, differences between Republicans in the House and Senate, and a chaotic budget process in general, no one dares predict the future of ANWR with certainty.

Although the Senate budget containing ANWR drilling passed the Senate, a battle looms in the House, where Democrats have been unusually united in opposition to drilling and Republicans may be less organized because of the indictment of former Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas.

"We've all been at this so long that we continue to walk on pins and needles," said Jerry Hood, a lobbyist with Arctic Power, a coalition of private and Alaska-native corporations that want drilling. "This is a town where anything can happen."

Regardless, the ultimate decision may come just before Thanksgiving, when budget leaders meet behind closed doors to hash out differences in the Senate and House budget bills.

"These are obviously vital decisions being made in coming days, but it would be very premature to say this has smooth sailing ahead," said Peter Rafle, a spokesman for The Wilderness Society, which has worked for two decades to prevent drilling in ANWR.

"There's enough growing discomfort with this process that this is not over."

Cantwell proposal

By a vote of 51-48, the Senate this morning rejected a proposal by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., to strip ANWR drilling out of the budget. She argued on the Senate floor Wednesday that the oil industry had a bad environmental record in northern Alaska, and drilling would not reduce gasoline prices significantly.

"It is not simply about protecting one of America's last remaining great treasures," she said. "Rather, it is a debate that forces us to confront our priorities. That is why this is too important a question to slide into the budget bill."

But Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., said it's appropriate for a budget bill because, GOP leaders believe, the sale of oil leases in the refuge would make $2.4 billion for the federal government. He also said some estimates suggest that there is enough oil in ANWR to make up for oil lost from recent Gulf Coast hurricanes.

"It could supply every drop of oil for the entire state of Florida for 29 years," Domenici said.

Republican leaders said they don't expect Cantwell's proposal to pass, and they argued that opposition to drilling nationally has softened along with rising gas prices.

Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., one of the few moderates who has long opposed drilling in ANWR, told The Hill newspaper in Washington, D.C., last week that he would support drilling as part of a budget package because it is "not the lightning rod it once was."

But environmentalists are focusing their lobbying efforts on moderates in both chambers, running ads against Smith and Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., among others. Reichert has told GOP leaders that he doesn't think he can support the House budget bill if it contains ANWR drilling.

"The environmental community is going to the mat on this," said Dee Frankfourth, part of a group of environmentalists in Alaska who fought to protect ANWR in 1980. "It's been a long fight, and nobody is going to give up now."

If ANWR passes both houses, the proposals under consideration in both the House and Senate now call for the government to expedite environmental reviews and start selling leases within 22 months. Experts have said drilling could produce oil within seven to 10 years.

Few in the environmental movement would talk this week about what happens if they lose this battle. But Dennis Hayes, director of Seattle's Bullitt Foundation and a founder of Earth Day, said it would just mark the end of "Phase One."

"I suspect that's where the environmental movement will go next: Making sure whoever wants to become the despoilers of Arctic wilderness face consumers at the pump who have such hostility it will affect that company's bottom line," he said.

Craig Welch: 206-464-2093 or cwelch@seattletimes.com