The proposed monorail from West Seattle to Interbay would have a difficult time meeting its ridership goals unless project leaders make significant changes and find millions of taxpayer dollars.

As the Seattle Monorail Project nears a do-or-die ballot measure Nov. 8, its financial worries have dominated the public debate, while questions about the system's capacity have been mostly overlooked.

If the scaled-back project isn't able to carry the number of passengers that leaders had expected, more money will be needed to subsidize operations and the public will get less of a return on decades of car-tab taxes.

Reductions in the number of trains, short station platforms, and a plan to build one track instead of two across the West Seattle Bridge limit the line's ability to serve commuters and game-day crowds. But that doesn't mean that trains would not be crowded.

Even if more trains were purchased, riders would be scrunched tighter than on a New York subway, according to a new report for the Seattle Planning Commission by member Tom Eanes.

SMP Executive Director John Haley said that any crowding would last only a few minutes between downtown stops.

"I don't get this. Where's the beef here?" he said.

The issue isn't necessarily monorail technology — a huge Tokyo line carries 138,000 people a day — but its application here.

Rising costs and a tax shortage have left gaps that SMP hopes to fill years from now. The ballot measure focuses on a 10 ˝-mile route with 12 of the original 19 stations. The ultimate length could be shorter — or longer, SMP says — depending on economic growth and political decisions.

Tonight, SMP will announce details of a new finance plan to replace a discarded 50-year, $11.4 billion package, including interest, to fund the original 14 miles.

Board members say crowded trains would prove the monorail is a success.

"That's a great problem to have, by the way. There's lots of ways to mitigate it," said Haley, a former transit chief in Boston. More trains can be sent where needed with an automatic-control system, he said.

Board members say that if trains were overcrowded, "political will" would emerge to find solutions.

Behind the scenes, the agency had concerns about capacity months ago.

A staff report in February mentioned "capacity constraints" for commuter trips and after special events.

Even for a 14-mile line, Eanes concluded in his report last month, the trains would be packed, long before approaching the SMP ridership estimate of 61,300 trips a day by 2030.

The alternative would be worse.

"If you only attract half the ridership, what benefit does that provide the city?" Eanes said.

Tight spaces

W.W.D.D?

(What Would Dick Do?)

Dick Falkenbury, the tour driver who inspired the grass-roots monorail movement, has some ideas to boost the Green Line's passenger capacity:

Four-car trains: Currently, two-car trains are planned.

Three platforms at each station, not two: Insert an extra platform between the north- and southbound trains, so exiting riders depart toward the center, while the new riders board from the sides — a quicker flow than using the same doors to both enter and exit.

Folding seats: Trips will be short, so only a few seats are needed, he says. They could fold up to create more space for standing passengers.

Gifts: After a ballgame, give riders a discount or monthly-pass rebate, or half-price lattés, if they thin the crowd by waiting 20-30 minutes.

A free ride: A no-fare zone downtown would get riders through each station faster and save millions of dollars required to install, maintain and audit the gates and ticket machines.

During rush hour, the monorail would risk losing passengers because arriving trains would be full already in some places, Eanes said.

Even if SMP buys more trains and runs them every three minutes downtown, each rider would have 3 square feet at peak times, Eanes calculated.

That's a tighter fit than other transit agencies consider their standard: 4 feet in New York, 5 feet in Boston, and 6 to 9 feet for Bay Area Rapid Transit. Haley says that in reality, people in those cities stand closer together than those figures indicate.

There are two ways to reduce crowding: Run trains more often, or run longer trains.

The supplier, Hitachi, says its proposed Seattle trains would hold 206 passengers. However, the limit for North Americans, who value personal space, should be 184 riders, based on federal transit norms, Eanes said.

Portland Tri-Met's MAX light rail provides enough rail cars to assure riders more elbow room. It aims for about 133 riders per car — far below the design capacity of 166, said John Griffiths, manager of rail-operations planning there.

Should Seattle monorail planners be thinking bigger?

Hitachi can add a third car to each train, but stations would need to be stretched to 140 feet, instead of about 90 feet envisioned now, said spokesman Jerry Schneider of Cascadia Monorail Co., whose contract depends on voter approval next month.

Eanes said that "to really serve its purpose, the monorail needs to double in size, to four-car trains. But these improvements would add hundreds of millions to the cost. So in a sense, they are farther over budget than they think."

With the Green Line's capacity maxed out, SMP couldn't add trains from other parts of the city onto the same tracks, said Jon Magnusson, a Seattle civil engineer who opposes the project.

Short platforms

SMP started out designing stations 130 feet long, about half the length of Vancouver SkyTrain's or the Las Vegas Monorail's. The agency wanted to build tall, thin stations on private land off the street, without paying astronomical sums for real estate.

The 130-foot requirement was dropped last year, right before the bid deadline. Cascadia then proposed a short train similar to one in Okinawa, Japan.

At one time, the SMP was hoping for 19 trains. Cascadia's contract offer has 13, at least two of which are spares, allowing arrivals every eight minutes downtown and every 10 minutes elsewhere.

Haley said that tonight he'll recommend keeping all 13, even with a shorter line, to cut two minutes off the wait time between trains.

The shorter route goes from Alaska Junction in West Seattle to Dravus Street in Interbay, although the ballot language is vague enough to allow a line with a different distance.

Someday, trains could arrive every three minutes downtown, if the agency buys several more of them, at $8 million each.

Single-tracking

The monorail is supposed to give West Seattle a lifeline in case of an Alaskan Way Viaduct closure, but SMP proposed only a single track on the West Seattle Bridge, to reduce costs and weight.

Single-tracking slows the system. Trains arrive less often.

Board member Cleve Stockmeyer has tried to get his colleagues to support adding a second track, at a cost of $25 million to $35 million. The better service would help make up for other reductions in the monorail system, he said.

The argument over capacity won't matter, unless the riders come.

SMP risks losing riders if it sticks with its plan to charge higher fares than those for buses. The plan was meant to help the system "break even."

One board member, Steve Williamson, has said he's willing to abandon the break-even goal to serve more transit users.

Then, people need to reach the stations. About 60 percent of commuters are expected to reach the stations on shuttle buses. Magnusson, the civil engineer, dismisses a two-part commute as a "bus-o-rail" that would not improve life for transit riders.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com.