Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels withdrew his support for the financially troubled monorail yesterday, refusing street-use permits and calling for a fifth public vote on the project in November.

The ballot measure would ask voters whether they want to kill plans, three years in the making, for a 14-mile line to connect Ballard, Seattle Center, downtown and West Seattle.

"This is perhaps the most disappointing day for me since I became mayor nearly four years ago," Nickels said at a news conference. "... Put simply, the monorail does not have enough money to pay for the project."

The mayor's turnabout marks the biggest setback yet for a project that began as a grass-roots movement for a functional transit system that rises above traffic. By this summer, though, the public rebelled against a finance plan that would have required at least 50 years of taxes totaling $11.4 billion to pay for a $2.1 billion line.

The mayor last month set Thursday as the deadline for the Seattle Monorail Project (SMP) to come up with its own ballot measure to either raise taxes or shorten the line.

Instead, SMP sought a three-month reprieve so its new director, former Boston-area transit chief John Haley, could look for cost savings.

Nickels' decision yesterday gives SMP one last chance to write its own ballot measure by Wednesday.

"If they are unwilling to do that, then the city will do it for them," he said.

Nickels asked the City Council to hold an emergency session Thursday to forward a ballot measure to King County Elections by Friday, the last day to reach the Nov. 8 ballot. So far, five council members have agreed.

Seattle residents will continue paying the car-tab tax that is the monorail's sole source of funding. For the past two years, car owners have been paying an average of $130 per year for each used car. New cars are exempt for one year.

If the monorail agency were to disband, the tax could continue for up to two more years to help pay off $110 million in debt, money that has been spent on administration, land for stations and design concepts.

Statements on the monorail


Excerpts from Mayor Greg Nickels

"Let me begin by saying that this is perhaps the most disappointing day for me since I became mayor nearly four years ago.

"Put simply: The monorail does not have enough money to pay for the project. The financing plan presented to me is not prudent. It relies on a risky assumption that money from car tabs will grow faster than expert economists consider reasonable or prudent. You can't solve a real revenue problem with rosy projections.

"... I am canceling the agreement that grants permission for the monorail to use city streets. Exercising my authority to cancel the Transit Way Agreement is the most direct method for preventing this flawed plan from going forward.

"I believe it is our responsibility as elected officials to come together and make the hard decisions necessary to ensure we build the best transportation system possible for the region.

"On my direction, the Seattle Department of Transportation is developing transit alternatives to serve the Ballard and West Seattle corridors. If the monorail is not in Seattle's future, we must find new ways to move people around the city."

Supporters yesterday fired back

"The voters have done the heavy lifting by voting for the monorail four times," said Seattle Monorail Project Chairwoman Kristina Hill. "We are not afraid of the voters. That's where this project comes from. What I am worried about is the endless planning loop that keeps us from building a citywide transit system."

"Projects have ebbs and flows, and there are periods of opposition. ... This project will bring benefits to the region. One thing we shouldn't lose sight of is the potential to remake the face of the city, in a very positive way. I know of no place where anyone's ever regretted building a transit line," said John Haley, new Seattle Monorail Project director. "We don't have to shorten the line, and we don't have to raise taxes," Haley said, arguing he's studying cost and debt savings to save the project.

"My question for Nickels is, 'What's your alternative plan?' And I want it by Oct. 15!" said monorail activist Peter Sherwin.

The financial crisis began in 2003 when the car-tab tax revenues fell a third short of original projections. Shortfalls have continued. To close the gap, monorail leaders counted on car values rising twice as fast as inflation. A city analysis calls that unlikely.

"You can't solve a real revenue problem with rosy projections," Nickels said.

At an SMP news conference yesterday, Chairwoman Kristina Hill criticized Nickels, saying voters have already approved the project four times.

"I think leadership means solving problems, and the problem is people have to be able to move in and out of downtown Seattle without getting stuck in traffic," she said.

In November, when voters sustained the project by handily defeating anti-monorail Initiative 83 last fall, SMP was withholding news of a $300 million cost increase, and had not yet issued its multigenerational finance plan.

SMP has called a special meeting for today, most of it behind closed doors.

Haley, who joined SMP three weeks ago to replace Executive Director Joel Horn, expressed frustration that a line in a pro-transit city, with most of the right of way already purchased, would face political turmoil now.

Gov. Christine Gregoire, state Auditor Brian Sonntag and state Treasurer Mike Murphy all praised the mayor's decision.

"I personally do not believe the monorail is the right approach because it will potentially divert attention and resources and not solve our critical transportation safety issues," Gregoire said in a statement. "Today, the mayor placed this issue exactly where it belongs: in front of the people."

A pro-monorail base persists, including a new group of young adults called 2045 Seattle. A Seattle Times poll in July found 45 percent of frequent voters hoping some way could be found to save the project, while an August poll for SMP's contractors found 51 percent agreeing with the statement: "With fresh ideas and new leadership, the monorail could still be built."

Monorail opponent Henry Aronson predicted the monorail board will put a shortened route on the ballot, cutting off the last mile in Ballard and in West Seattle.

Pat Flaherty, president of lead construction partner Fluor Enterprises, said he was struggling to understand the mayor's thinking. Flaherty noted that a world-class panel — John Eastman of Vancouver SkyTrain, Jen Liew of Monorail Malaysia and Don Irwin of Tri-Met in Portland — found the cost reasonable, given the complexity of elevated transit here.

"If the city of Seattle can't support this project, why would a contractor take the risk of investing in a major infrastructure project in Seattle?" he said.

Monorail activist Peter Sherwin said the line remains a bargain compared with Sound Transit light-rail tunneling at $450 million a mile, and the city has no workable plan for bus rapid transit or streetcar alternatives.

"It's just hypocritical of him to demand a perfect plan, everything, in rocket time for this line," Sherwin said, adding that Nickels never called for revotes when Sound Transit's costs doubled in 2001.

Nickels had been a longtime monorail supporter, although not with the same passion he's brought to the pursuit of a tunnel to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct.

Several observers have warned that monorail controversies would turn the public against big government projects, adding support for a statewide initiative to repeal gas taxes. That would jeopardize $2 billion that state lawmakers have earmarked for viaduct work.

Nickels' decision hinged on advice from City Finance Director Dwight Dively, who judged the monorail unaffordable.

SMP needs 6.1 percent annual growth in car-tab tax collections to pay off the line in 42 years, and its own studies showed only a 50-50 chance of hitting or exceeding that rate. Dively thinks 5 percent is more likely.

"At 5 percent, you can't even come close to financing it in 40 years. It would take you, perhaps, forever to pay off the debt."

If the city's biggest risk is that people have to pay the tax longer, that's acceptable because people will have the chance to ride, SMP's Hill said.

In another setback, the city Planning Commission issued a report this week saying the monorail passenger capacity is much smaller than other rail-transit lines, and current plans lack enough trains to serve the expected riders.

City Council members Richard Conlin, David Della and Richard McIver said the project should be scrapped. Council President Jan Drago, Jean Godden and Nick Licata acknowledged serious problems, but stopped short of saying they would encourage voters to derail it. Tom Rasmussen said he was open to an advisory ballot, but would rather give the monorail until mid-December to come up with a better plan.

Staff reporters Bob Young and Andrew Garber contributed to this report. Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com