At a busy intersection in Ballard, a storefront has been vacant since Christmas. Taped inside its windows are professionally printed signs: "Attention: Progress In Progress. The Seattle Monorail is coming to Crown Hill to serve you."

Yeah? Says who?

These days, the only thing certain about the monorail is the uncertainty over whether it actually will be built. Some of the properties where stations are supposed to go, such as the empty Crown Hill storefront, sit as temples to that ambiguity.

Over the past 16 months, the Seattle Monorail Project has paid $71.7 million for land to build the 14-mile Green Line, almost all of it to accommodate the stations. If the monorail is not built, the properties would be sold to private developers to help pay off debt.

The monorail has been perceived as a catalyst for development, bringing more density to the neighborhoods it would serve. As it turns out, though station-location properties may be stagnant, some major developments in Ballard, Interbay and West Seattle are speeding right along — the monorail neither a make nor a break in whether they get built.

"West Seattle is going to grow with or without the monorail," said Leon Capelouto, who is developing a commercial and residential building about a block from the monorail's Alaska Junction station site. "I think my tenants would like to see the monorail happen, but if it doesn't happen, that won't deter them. They are coming either way."

In Ballard, KeyBank's plan to build a new branch adjacent to the proposed station at Northwest Market Street and 15th Avenue Northwest is still a go, spokesman Art Merrick said. The bank would be on the street level of a new building with housing above.

"Whatever happens to the monorail won't impact our plans because the monorail didn't impact the plans to begin with," Merrick said.

Two miles north, neighbors and workers in Crown Hill recently gathered to wipe graffiti from monorail-owned properties at Northwest 85th Street and 15th Avenue Northwest, including the city's "notice of proposed land-use action" billboard that details the station plan.

"Not only is the monorail putting itself on hold, it's putting the rest of us on hold," said Shane Dir, president of the Crown Hill Business Association. "We're trying to bring positive, vibrant growth to our area. But new business may not want to come into an area if they don't know what's going on there."

Mayor Greg Nickels has given the Seattle Monorail Project until Sept. 15 to revamp the $11.4 billion proposal abandoned this summer, and propose a new public vote. The board is considering a number of changes, including shortening the 14-mile route and opening the line in phases.

In the Interbay neighborhood between Queen Anne and Magnolia, a monorail station is planned for the business district at 16th Avenue West and West Dravus Street. An association of business owners and residents continues to urge the city to rezone the Dravus business district to allow taller buildings and therefore more housing and commercial density.

The Interbay Neighborhood Association's vision is described as transit-oriented development, but the group does not believe the monorail has to be that transit vehicle.

Ray Bartel, pastor of Interbay Covenant Church and an association member, said the monorail would be an enticement for developers considering Interbay, but that the lack of a monorail wouldn't keep them away.

"The situation with the monorail is not a blow to our goal to reclaim this neighborhood and turn it into a vibrant community," Bartel said. "There would be disappointment here if the monorail does not go forward, because we see it as a wonderful connection to integrate the mass transit that already serves us here. But if it goes no further, it's not going to cause us any sleepless nights."

David Bolin, co-owner of the Freehold Group, is a developer who has invested in the Dravus business district and is bullish on its future — with or without the monorail. He said that of 22 acres of private property within the district, half are either vacant or blighted with dilapidated buildings.

"We've never pinned our hopes for resurgence for this area on the monorail," Bolin said. "Would the monorail improve the business climate and be more exciting for people to want to live here? Well, yeah. But at the same time, the monorail has its own big footprint that comes squashing through neighborhoods. There are big impacts, and some of those are negative."

Farther down 15th Avenue West, just north of the Magnolia Bridge, a major development anchored by a new Whole Foods store also does not rest on the future of the monorail. The store would be built along the Green Line route but between stations.

"We'd just as soon not see the monorail, because we don't think it will be providing any service to this area," said Bob Parks, co-manager of TRF Pacific. He said the overhead structure could create light and visibility problems.

In West Seattle, the Morgan Junction business district would be the southern terminus of the Green Line.

"If the monorail does go in, I think you'll see a lot of pressure to increase density in Morgan," said Terry Williams, who chairs the monorail subcommittee of the Southwest District Council.

But if the monorail doesn't get built, there appears to be little reason for developers to ask the city to increase density in Morgan Junction, said Cindi Barker, a neighborhood activist.

The Seattle Monorail Project owns 34 of the 39 parcels it needs to build the 16-station line, which would stretch from Morgan Junction to Crown Hill. According to a monorail inventory of the parcels, 22 tenants continue to occupy the properties on month-to-month leases.

Natasha Jones, monorail spokeswoman, said the agency does not keep track of how many tenants have vacated. Those who left were offered compensation for moving costs, plus up to $50,000 for miscellaneous relocation expenses.

Those who have stayed are paying discounted rents in exchange for tolerating a short-term lease, Jones said.

While the Sunhill Food Store vacated the monorail-owned building in Crown Hill, Joon Park continues to operate Sunhill Teriyaki in the same building. He said he plans to stay for as long as he can because of the prime location, opposite a Safeway, QFC and Walgreens.

"Customers come in and ask, 'When is something moving in next door?' " said Park, whose restaurant is separated by a wall from the vacant food mart.

Jones said the monorail agency is open to having new tenants move in during the interim, "but we haven't found anybody interested in such a tenuous rental relationship."

Stuart Eskenazi: 206-464-2293 or seskenazi@seattletimes.com