It's not clear whether an initiative to repeal the state's new gas tax will make it onto the November ballot, but you wouldn't guess that based on the recent flurry of press releases, lawsuits and overheated rhetoric.

A group called Nonewgastax.com is sponsoring Initiative 912, which would repeal a 9.5-cent gasoline tax passed by the Legislature this year. The group's members have mounted a grass-roots campaign — fueled by conservative radio-talk-show host John Carlson — to collect the signatures of 224,880 registered voters by July 8.

An opposition group, Keep Washington Rolling, quickly formed to take them on. It's backed by prominent businesses and labor groups, including Boeing, Microsoft and the Washington State Labor Council.

The two sides have been making the kind of noise normally reserved for initiatives already qualified for the ballot: filing dueling lawsuits and accusing each other of dirty tricks.

"It's a recognition that the stakes are high," said Christian Sinderman, a Democratic political consultant and supporter of the gas tax. "The future of the state is at stake."

Some people aren't so sure. "I'm still not convinced they [the I-912 sponsors] are going to pull it off," said Todd Donovan, a political-science professor at Western Washington University.

The I-912 campaign doesn't have enough money to use paid signature gatherers, which have been employed for most initiatives that have made the ballot. The group says it has raised about $150,000 so far.

Information

Gas-tax opponents: nonewgastax.com

Gas-tax supporters: www.keepwashingtonrolling.org

Paid-signature-gathering campaigns generally cost $300,000 or more, says Sherry Bockwinkel, who runs Washington Initiatives Now.

Also, organizers have less than two weeks to finish collecting signatures. They won't say how many they have now.

Still, Donovan isn't writing the group off. One thing in I-912's favor is that an opposition group formed so quickly, he said. The conflict has attracted plenty of media attention.

"It's like when a movie gets banned somewhere, everybody hears about it," Donovan said. "It's free press they couldn't have bought."

I-912, if approved by voters, would largely gut an $8.5 billion transportation package intended to help fix some of the state's most pressing safety problems, such as the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle. The initiative would repeal a 9.5-cents-per-gallon tax on gasoline that's to be phased in over the next four years.

It would leave in place a tax on diesel fuel and weight fees. However those taxes would generate only about $120 million a year in revenue over the next decade, not nearly enough to help tackle the multibillion-dollar projects on the table.

The I-912 campaign carries on a long-standing tax revolt in Washington focused on transportation funding. The state lost several hundred million dollars in revenue after voters approved Initiative 695 in 1999 and the Legislature subsequently eliminated the state's motor-vehicle excise tax.

In 2002, voters overwhelming rejected Referendum 51, a $7.8 billion transportation tax package that included a 9-cent-a-gallon gas-tax increase.

I-912 organizers hope to tap into the same anti-tax sentiment. They've run radio ads in Eastern Washington and inserted 225,000 petitions into six newspapers on that side of the state in cities including Wenatchee, Spokane and Walla Walla.

The petitions say the gas tax should be put to a vote of the people, arguing "the gas tax increase costs us $8.5 billion and helps no one."

In addition, the initiative campaign recently filed a lawsuit in Thurston County Superior Court to prevent the state from using the tax increase to issue bonds until it's been determined whether the measure will make it on the ballot. And, if enough signatures are gathered, the lawsuit seeks to keep the ban in place until the election in November.

Opponents traveled around Eastern Washington meeting with newspaper editorial boards, hoping to persuade voters not to sign the petitions.

They've also filed a lawsuit in Thurston County Superior Court. Their lawsuit claims I-912 sponsors failed to disclose the identities of contributors who gave money via the Internet, as required by law. Nonewgastax.com says it recently supplied all the required information to the state.

Keep Washington Rolling organizers says I-912 supporters are spreading inaccurate information about the gas tax and what it does, and that's why they formed an opposition before knowing whether the measure will qualify for the ballot.

"If you keep quiet about it, those untruths become facts," said Lily Eng, a spokeswoman for the group.

For example, I-912's claim that the tax "doesn't provide enough money to finish a single project" is wrong, she said. While there may not be enough money to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct or the Highway 520 floating bridge over Lake Washington, there are hundreds of smaller projects the money is to go to as well. "Many of them will be completed," she said.

House Transportation Committee Chairman Ed Murray, D-Seattle, says he's keeping an eye on the initiative and is concerned about what will happen if it gets on the ballot.

"I think gas is high and people are frustrated with the price of gas," he said. "It's one way for people to express their anger."

Andrew Garber: 360-943-9882 or agarber@seattletimes.com