First thing tomorrow, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is expected to release a list of military bases around the country he wants closed or merged, ending speculation about the fate of $3.7 billion the Pentagon pumps into Washington's economy each year.

While all of the state's military installations are theoretically fair game, most are considered safe.

And only Naval Station Everett, which hosts the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, faces stiff competition from another state.

Hawaii wants an aircraft carrier, and its seven-term senator, Democrat Daniel Inouye, has been courting military planners.

In a report released Monday, the Overseas Basing Commission, an advisory group to Congress, suggested the Navy shift a carrier to Hawaii, even if it "entails major political and economic impact" for another port.

Washington's congressional delegation and local officials have traveled to the Pentagon in recent months to tout Naval Station Everett and other bases. And some of those conversations have focused squarely on competition from Hawaii, which hasn't based a carrier at Pearl Harbor since World War II.

"We have always monitored that possibility. We know it's out there," said Pat McClain, government-affairs coordinator for the city of Everett. "We have made our case on the merits of this facility."

Completed in 1994, Naval Station Everett employs about 6,300 military and civilian personnel. It contributes about $431 million to the Snohomish County economy.

Washington has nine major bases and more than 100 smaller facilities, including hospitals, camps, depots, signal stations and recruiting offices.

Naval Station Everett, Whidbey Island Naval Air Station in Oak Harbor and Fairchild Air Force Base in Spokane were placed on the closure list in past rounds, only to be removed later.

Although final decisions will be made by the Base Relocation And Closure (BRAC) Commission, this year's round gives far more power to the Defense Secretary.

Unlike previous BRAC commissions in 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995, the nine-member group can only add to or subtract from Rumsfeld's list if a supermajority of seven commissioners agree.

That means closures unveiled tomorrow will likely head to President Bush, who can ask the commission to revise the list but cannot alter it himself.

Bush must certify the list by Nov. 7 and Congress has 45 days to reject it or it becomes law.

Rumsfeld said he wants this round to focus on combining bases. For example, it's possible he will recommend McChord Air Force Base in Tacoma transform into an Army Air Base under the command of nearby Fort Lewis. That scenario would streamline operations but not likely impact many jobs.

Taking a cue from Rumsfeld's emphasis on joint operations, the governor's office and the state's congressional delegation tried to market the state as a whole.

A white paper released to the BRAC Commission on April 29 listed the capabilities of the major bases, and noted their cooperation.

"Our bases are near enough to each other to create a strong joint operations and training environment," the report says. "They are also situated in geographic locations that will enhance protection from a terrorist or military attack."

In devising tomorrow's list, Pentagon planners take into account a wide range of financial, strategic and political considerations.

Hawaii, for example, touts its proximity to East Asia and long history with military bases.

But Everett's lobbyist in D.C., retired Adm. James Seely, noted Hawaii lacks practice ranges for carrier fighter-bombers, which would have to train stateside.

And building new carrier infrastructure in Hawaii could cost around $2.2 billion.

The Pentagon may not decide whether to deploy a carrier in Hawaii tomorrow, leaving that choice for another day.

And even if Pentagon planners want to go ahead with a new station in Hawaii, some military watchers say it should move one of the five carriers at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia.

"We don't need to move carriers from the West Coast. We need to move them from the East Coast," said Loren Thompson, military analyst at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va. "Washington state is considered to be a hub of military activity."

But Sen. John Warner, R-Va., chairman of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee, would likely oppose such a move.

Surviving the BRAC isn't cheap; Washington has already doled out $500,000 in public money to military communities to pay for consultants, studies and pamphlets.

If a base is placed on the list, the surrounding community can apply for $5 million in state aid to pay for infrastructure improvements to better its chances with the BRAC commission.

In addition, local communities could apply for $150,000 if they are targeted by another base slated for closure.

With billions of defense dollars at stake, it's common for targeted communities to point fingers at others they want to be in the commission's sights.

And if it comes to that, Washington officials say they are ready to play hardball.

"We are poised to respond," said Antonio Ginatta, adviser to Gov. Christine Gregoire.

Alex Fryer: 206-464-8124 or afryer@seattletimes.com