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Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - Page updated at 08:19 a.m.

Job market grows — from bottom up

Seattle business reporter

When the economy took a nosedive nearly five years ago, Kevin Barry's thriving wireless sales and repair business did, too. His customers — trucking companies, couriers, contractors — were laying off workers, the very people using Industrial Communications' cellphones and two-way radios.

"When a phone broke, they had several sitting in the closet that they could put into service," says Barry.

Slowly, though, Barry's customers have returned. And for the first time in years, the Seattle businessman is hiring again.

Last month he contributed to the 6,200 jobs created in Washington, fewer than the roughly 10,000 gained in January but still above forecasters' projections. The state's unemployment rate, once among the highest in the nation, stood in February at 5.5 percent, just a fraction above the national jobless rate, which rose to 5.4 percent last month.

From restaurants to software companies, employers once again are adding workers. Many of the new jobs lack the sizzle or the high wages that characterized the late 1990s expansion. They're in retail (12,100 jobs since the recession ended in April 2003), business services (18,400 jobs), hospitality (9,000) and health care (12,400).

But economists say that has more to do with the economic cycle than any permanent shift in the economy.

"We're not creating as many high-wage jobs as we were back in the late 1990s, particularly when you take into account stock-option income," said Dick Conway, a Seattle economist. "But in the long run that doesn't mean that the economy won't create high-wage jobs."

Average income in the software industry has dropped dramatically, from $247,776 in 2000 to an estimated $152,016 today, largely because employee stock options were battered by declines in the stock market or eliminated.

Even so, the hard-hit tech sector — which three years ago prompted programmers to joke about standing on street corners with "will code for food" signs — is showing signs of stirring.

Software publishing gained about 100 jobs last month, and 3,800 jobs since the recession ended, according to the state Employment Security Department.

And accompanying that slight growth is a growing confidence among job seekers.

"They're starting to be a little pickier," says Fedra Yazdi, a tech recruiter for Analysts International. "Now it's, 'Well, I have my mind set on $40 an hour.' They have that option, which is good."


ELLEN M. BANNER / THE SEATTLE TIMES

Job seekers mill about the Tulalip Tribal Office gymnasium yesterday, competing for more than 500 jobs at a 100-store outlet mall opening in May.

So-called discouraged workers — those who stopped looking for work and were no longer included on unemployment rolls — also resurfaced in February. About 10,000 rejoined the work force, nudging the state's jobless rate to 5.5 percent, up from a revised 5.4 percent in January.

Meanwhile, retailers may see a work-force revolt in the next few months. With new jobs opening up in other sectors, employees may make good on their New Year's resolution to find a better gig.

The national online job board, CareerBuilder.com, surveyed retail workers late last fall and found that nearly half planned to leave their current employer in 2005. The employees said they were dissatisfied with the sector's low wages, heavy work loads and few opportunities to advance.

Alice Hanson, who helps job seekers write résumés, also senses the changing job market. And she cautions employers against being too arrogant in the coming months.

"Employers are used to having a lot of really good candidates coming to them, but that's not going to last," she said. "The ones that were really good to candidates are going to be really happy they were, and the ones that weren't so nice are going to be sorry."

Shirleen Holt: 206-464-8316 or sholt@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2005 The Seattle Times Company


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