It's not that Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels lacks critics.

Neighborhood activists complain he's shut them out. Firefighters recently ran a full-page newspaper ad depicting him as "the Grinch." He's routinely snubbed the City Council. Some small businesses say he's neglected them while courting billionaire Paul Allen.

Yet, as Nickels prepares to deliver his election-year State of the City speech tomorrow, no rivals have emerged to stand in the way of a second term.

Politically speaking, Nickels has consolidated his power. In 2001, he ran as a nonthreatening, neighborhood-friendly alternative to tough-talking City Attorney Mark Sidran. But during his first term, Nickels has wooed many of Sidran's former backers with an aggressive leadership style and a staunchly pro-development agenda.

He has added major downtown business support to an existing political base of labor groups, transit backers and Democratic Party activists. While Nickels' metamorphosis rankles some former supporters, it has left potential challengers with limited room to maneuver.

Even some critics said they're not sure Nickels will face a credible challenge this year.

"I don't see a deep reservoir of opposition to the mayor," said City Councilman Nick Licata, who has been asked to consider running. "I see a lot of scattered pockets of discontent. I see even more resigned support for him."

Licata said he is not likely to run.

"I see a lot of scattered pockets of discontent. I see even more resigned support for him." — Nick Licata, city councilman

"He's not a shoo-in," he said of Nickels, "but I don't see anybody willing to take on the challenge to mobilize the pockets of discontent and shift the weak support into opposition."

Nickels said he believes he's demonstrated strong leadership that had been lacking at City Hall.

"I've been very focused on getting the confidence in the city back amongst the public," the 49-year-old mayor said of his first term, referring to the string of riots and corporate departures that shook the city's faith during Paul Schell's one term as mayor. "One of the things I've accepted about the job is that you can't make everyone happy."

Business backing

If a challenge to Nickels arises, it seems unlikely to come from the downtown business interests that strongly backed Sidran in 2001. Some of Sidran's former supporters now give high marks to Nickels.

That includes Sidran.

"I think Greg has surprised people, and I would put myself in that category." — Mark Sidran, 2001 election rival

"I think Greg has surprised people, and I would put myself in that category," said Sidran, who ran unsuccessfully for state attorney general last year. "I think he has done a good job on the whole by asserting himself. I know he has ruffled some feathers along the way, but that is sometimes the consequence of leadership."

Sidran, now an attorney with the law firm Foster Pepper & Shefelman, said he has no plans to run again.

Another big factor in warding off challengers may be Nickels' fund raising. The mayor already has raised more than $226,000 for his re-election bid, including many donations from businesses that did not support him last time.

Although a group of activists that backed Nickels four years ago has been trying fervently to recruit a candidate to challenge the mayor, there have been no takers.

One of the most-talked-about prospects, Jim Diers, the popular former director of the Department of Neighborhoods, said he doesn't want to run. Nickels enraged many neighborhood groups — and gave an early glimpse of his governing style — when he opted to fire Diers after taking office.

Diers now teaches at the University of Washington and is busy promoting a book about his work at the city. Though he would like to see someone challenge Nickels, he does not intend to do it himself. "I've just never had political aspirations," he said.

John Fox, the longtime activist head of the Seattle Displacement Coalition, has led the anti-Nickels recruiting effort. It is a turnabout for Fox and other progressives who campaigned loudly against Sidran in 2001, objecting to his "civility laws" regulating conduct on downtown streets and in city parks.

"People believed him, and he misled those groups. He figures he can jettison the support of our crowd." — John Fox, seeking a challenger

Now Fox has become just as vociferous a critic of Nickels, fighting the mayor's plans to spend hundreds of millions on a reconfigured Mercer Street, an electricity substation and a new streetcar line to encourage biotech development in South Lake Union.

"He campaigned on a platform that included a bunch of promises to the neighborhoods. People believed him, and he misled those groups," Fox said. "He figures he can jettison the support of our crowd."

But Fox's efforts to recruit a mayoral candidate have proved futile.

Besides Diers, Fox has been turned down by Licata, former state Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge and state Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos, who laughed when Fox approached her to consider running.

Fox said he'll keep trying. But some wonder if cajoling someone into running could be fruitful.

"This is something someone has got to want — you just don't go find somebody, you can't recruit someone," said Eugene Wasserman, president of the North Seattle Industrial Association, who has been critical of the mayor's focus on South Lake Union and of his decision to OK a bike trail through industrial land in Ballard over the objection of some businesses there.

And Nickels' supporters said that despite the controversies that mayors always face, he has earned respect by tackling big problems.

"I think people like folks who take stands on issues. Whether you like him or not, this mayor has done that," said James Kelly, president of the Urban League of Metropolitan Seattle.

Early in the game

It is still possible to cobble together a credible campaign against Nickels. It is early in the year and there are elements of discontent that could unite behind a compelling candidate.

The firefighters union, which ran a pre-Christmas newspaper ad featuring Nickels as "the Grinch" because of his cuts to the Fire Department, is likely to continue bashing Nickels throughout the year as part of an initiative campaign to mandate four-person crews on all fire engines.

City Council members also frequently complain about Nickels' hardball politics, which have resulted in city departments in some cases no longer cooperating with council requests for information.

"I think that style turns a lot of people off," said Councilman Peter Steinbrueck.

Nickels' penchant for expensive megaprojects could also be a source of political opposition. His support for a South Lake Union streetcar and other public investments to help development there have spurred criticism.

His $4 billion plan to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel was recently knocked by U.S. Sen. Patty Murray as unrealistic. Plenty of questions also remain about the Nickels-backed monorail and Sound Transit light-rail projects.

And anyone who is ready to completely write off the election should remember that political upsets have become almost a Northwest staple in recent years.

Schell, in 2001, became the first incumbent mayor to be unseated in a primary since 1938. Three City Council incumbents followed him out the door in 2003.

Last year in Portland, former Police Chief Tom Potter jumped into the mayoral race as an underdog and beat the early favorite, City Commissioner Jim Francesconi. Potter stunned the city by outpolling Francesconi in the primary despite limiting political donations to $25 per person and being outfund-raised 12-to-1, according to media accounts. He went on to win the general election and was sworn in last month.

And recall that less than four years ago, a low-key county councilman from West Seattle surprised some by running a tireless and ultimately successful campaign for mayor of Seattle over a better-funded city attorney.

Nickels said that he fully expects to face an opponent this year and that he looks forward, starting with his speech tomorrow, "to making the case for why I should be re-elected."

Jim Brunner: 206-515-5628 or jbrunner@seattletimes.com

Seattle Times reporter Bob Young contributed to this report.