Fewer TV ads in Washington state for Bush

By David Postman and Jim Brunner
Seattle Times staff reporters

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The Bush campaign's millions fueled an ad war that made Washington a potential swing state in the presidential election. As of August, the two campaigns had each spent about $3.3 million on TV commercials.

Now, though, Kerry appears set to dominate the state's airwaves through the Nov. 2 election. The Bush-Cheney campaign had less than $62,500 in airtime reserved for the period at Seattle network affiliates KING, KOMO and KIRO, according to a review of political-advertising contracts at the stations yesterday.

The Kerry-Edwards campaign as of yesterday had more than $493,000 in ad time reserved on the same Seattle stations.

At KOMO, for example, after a $10,000 ad buy ends this week, the Bush campaign had only a single, $11,575 contract for scattered 30-second spots running through next Tuesday on the local news, "Wheel of Fortune" and "Jeopardy." The Kerry-Edwards campaign had $150,000 worth of advertising reserved on the station.

"We are advertising in Washington," said Bush campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt. "It is a battleground state, and we will continue to work hard there."

She would not comment on whether the campaign would increase advertising as Election Day gets closer.

But that's certainly possible, said one Republican close to the campaign.

"From everything I'm hearing, it's not an indication that the president's campaign is pulling out of Washington," said Pierce Scranton, chief of staff to Rep. Jennifer Dunn, R-Bellevue. Dunn is the chairwoman of the Bush campaign in the state.

Scranton said he spoke with national Bush campaign officials yesterday.

"They continue to be watching us, and I do know from the campaigns they haven't made any final decisions on ad buys," he said.
 
He also said there had been no change in the campaign's volunteer organization, which numbers as many as 30,000 and is making thousands of voter contacts each day.

The shift comes amid national reports that both campaigns are reassessing strategy in the final weeks before the election. The list of battleground states has shrunk as the campaigns focus on states more closely contested than Washington, which was always considered a longshot for Bush.

"I think they're conceding the state," said Sam Rodriguez, the Kerry campaign's Washington state director.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won the Washington state vote since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984. Most since then didn't bother to compete. The Bush campaign has been the most extensive, high-profile and high-spending of any recent Republican effort.

The Kerry campaign could still shift its ad money, too. Rodriguez said if the state appears to be an easy win for Kerry, the money might be better spent elsewhere.

In August, state GOP Chairman Chris Vance said he was certain the Bush campaign was doing what it needed to be competitive here.

"Step one is just be here," he said at the time. "Come here, campaign here, spend your money here. And they've done all of that."

National Republicans have also canceled more than $1 million worth of Seattle-area TV commercials for their Senate candidate. The National Republican Senatorial Committee withdrew scheduled airtime on behalf of U.S. Senate candidate George Nethercutt.

Nethercutt will still receive money from the national committee. Vance said Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi will also benefit from an extensive ad campaign paid for by the Republican Governor's Association.

Randy Pepple, a Republican political consultant, said the GOP is still positioned to be competitive in the state because the party has paid more attention to its get-out-the-vote effort than in past years.

The Bush campaign has been instrumental in organizing the program in the state to help Republican candidates throughout the ballot.

But as far as TV money is concerned, Pepple said, the Bush campaign has to make some raw political calculations in the final weeks of the elections.

"Is Washington still one of those states they need to win the 270 electoral votes? Or is Washington in the category of where we'd like to be competitive, but we don't need to win it to get to 270?" Pepple asked.

David Postman: 360-943-9882 or dpostman@seattletimes.com