Sound Transit's quest for ideal route produces 'disappointing' choices

By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times staff reporter

	Kevin Phelps
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A tentative alignment could be selected as soon as Thursday. But whatever option is chosen, it won't do everything the agency hoped for when it began examining the alternatives in late 2001.

Sound Transit's staff has presented the board with nine possible new routes to the University District, as well as three possible alignments north to Northgate.

Some of those routes aren't acceptable to the University of Washington — considered a must. Those that do pass muster with the UW deliver less bang for the buck than the route the board mothballed three years ago.

"It's been disappointing," admits Tacoma City Councilman Kevin Phelps, who chairs Sound Transit's finance committee. "I guess we were hoping we'd find some lower-cost alternatives."

The route the board seems most likely to pick, which features a tunnel under the Montlake Cut and a station at Husky Stadium, actually costs about 1 or 2 percent more and would carry about 4 percent fewer riders in 2030 than the old alignment, according to Sound Transit's estimates.

Board members who lean toward it, including Phelps and Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg, say it's the better choice anyway because there's a much smaller risk of budget-busting surprises later, when workers start digging.

Ladenburg, the board chairman, says Sound Transit's staff deserves credit for not sugarcoating the economic realities. "We know it's going to be tremendously expensive," he says, "because we didn't do it (build light rail) ... years ago like everybody else."

When Sound Transit began its search for a new route north in late 2001, the project was a shambles. Contractors said the route the board had picked in 1999 — a tunnel under First Hill, Capitol Hill, Portage Bay and 15th Avenue Northeast — couldn't be built for the money Sound Transit had budgeted.

So the agency decided to build south from downtown instead while it looked for a new route north that ideally would be cheaper, more cost-effective and less risky.

Those ideals have proved elusive.

"There's probably no perfect route," says board member Fred Butler, an Issaquah city councilman, "and no route that makes everyone happy."

The board's impending decision doesn't mean construction will start soon. More environmental studies of the chosen alignment must be completed before the board makes its decision final, probably next year.

And Sound Transit still doesn't have the money.

The agency has released estimates only for the construction costs of each option, not including trains or administrative and engineering expenses.

The partial estimates range from $1.31 billion to $1.75 billion to reach Northgate.

The total cost? Metropolitan King County Councilman Dwight Pelz, D-Seattle, another Sound Transit board member, pegs it at around $2.5 billion. Sound Transit critics contend it will cost much more.

The agency has only $248 million available now to go north, although more could surface if bids to build the light-rail line south of downtown come in low.

There's also the possibility of $1 billion from a three-county transportation package that could be on the November ballot. And Sound Transit officials are hoping for $500 million or so more in federal grants.

Instead of waiting until every dollar is assured for going north to Northgate, Ladenburg has suggested Sound Transit just start building. "Can't we just pick segments and add them until we run out of money?" he asked at a recent board meeting.

Doing the numbers

Like the 1999 route, all nine new routes from downtown to the University District would be entirely underground. Seven would cost less to build than the original.

Three would tunnel directly from downtown to Capitol Hill, bypassing First Hill. Three more would follow a route up Eastlake Avenue East to the Lake Washington Ship Canal, bypassing Capitol Hill as well.

	John Ladenburg

But Sound Transit estimates five of those six alternatives would carry at least 10 percent fewer passengers in 2030 than the 1999 alignment, which had stations on both hills.

On a per-rider basis, the new routes actually would be less cost-effective, the agency calculates. They appear to enjoy little, if any, support among board members.

Sound Transit did find one alternative that serves both First Hill and Capitol Hill that also would attract slightly more riders and cost a little less than the 1999 route. It would tunnel under the Montlake Cut, then under the heart of the UW campus from southeast to northwest, beneath Rainier Vista and Red Square.

But the UW's regents, who must approve any route through campus, effectively vetoed that option in December. Vibrations and electromagnetic fields from trains would pose too great a risk to scientific research, they wrote.

A fight with the university is the last thing Sound Transit wants. "I just can't imagine us wanting to go down that path," says Phelps.

The route the board seems poised to approve is a variation on the one the regents rejected. It would follow a more looping route under the campus, beneath the Husky Union Building and the Quadrangle.

'Modified Montlake' favored

Theresa Doherty, UW assistant vice president for regional affairs, says the route, dubbed "modified Montlake" by Sound Transit, is acceptable because it's farther from the buildings that house the most sensitive research.

But the route's longer tunnel under campus pushes its price tag above the straighter Montlake route and the 1999 alignment, according to Sound Transit's environmental studies.

It also would attract slightly fewer riders, largely because a station at Husky Stadium would be farther from the university's medical center and main campus than the south campus stations envisioned for the other routes.

Even so, "modified Montlake" has the backing of Northeast Seattle community and business groups and the Seattle City Council's transportation committee. Board members Pelz and Metropolitan King County Councilman Larry Phillips, D-Seattle, support it, and Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels and King County Executive Ron Sims also are said to be on board.

"It's the best way to get along with the University of Washington," says Kenmore City Councilman Jack Crawford, another board member who favors the route.

Seattle City Councilman Richard McIver, another board member, isn't so sure. "I think crossing the UW campus is going to be much more expensive than we know now," he says, alluding to future negotiations with the university over mitigation.

McIver supports a "West Tunnel" under the Ship Canal near the University Bridge and a route up Brooklyn Avenue Northeast. The "modified Montlake" route's chief advantage over the 1999 route, according to its backers, is less risk.

Soils under the Montlake Cut are compact. Sediments under Portage Bay are more likely to hide boulders that might wreak havoc with construction schedules and costs.

For all the support it has, the route isn't trouble-free. It requires a power substation and an emergency tunnel vent in the Montlake area. Both would be housed in a one- or two-story building with a 3,000-square-foot footprint.

Sound Transit has identified three possible sites. One would require demolition of three houses. Another would take a house and part of the parking lot of St. Demetrios Greek Orthodox Church. The third would displace the 71-year-old Hop In Market, a Montlake institution.

The Montlake Community Club opposes all three. Sound Transit is working on alternatives for the Hop In site that might allow the grocery to remain.

St. Demetrios also fears tunneling could damage its sanctuary and the mosaics and icons inside. It has asked Sound Transit to build the tunnel at least 1,000 feet from its property. Project manager Ron Endlich says that may not be possible.

The University District Chamber of Commerce, University District Community Council and other groups say they'll drop their support for "modified Montlake" if Sound Transit puts its University District station on Brooklyn Avenue Northeast between Northeast 45th and 47th streets, one of three options being considered.

Businesses there, including the Best Western University Tower Hotel, couldn't survive years of construction disruption, says community council President Matthew Fox. He favors a station on UW property near the Burke Museum, at 15th Avenue Northeast and Northeast 45th Street. "The university isn't going to go out of business," Fox says.

The third option is for a station on Brooklyn south of Northeast 45th Street.

The board also faces a tough choice between two Capitol Hill station sites near East John Street. One would be under busy Broadway, the other a block to the east under Nagle Place.

Capitol Hill Chamber of Commerce President Charles Hamilton says many Broadway businesses, fearful of construction impacts, prefer Nagle. But that site could affect a city park. And Bonney-Watson, the venerable Capitol Hill funeral home, says the Nagle station would eliminate its parking and threaten its future.

Looking farther north

The Sound Transit board hasn't picked a route north from the University District to Northgate before. An alternative that would include an underground station near Roosevelt High School enjoys strong backing from Roosevelt business and community groups.

They oppose two other options, which both feature an elevated station just east of Interstate 5 at Northeast 65th Street. But some board members like those routes, in part because they could be up to 13 percent cheaper.

Eric Pryne: 206-464-2231 or epryne@seattletimes.com

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