Unpredictable Washington now gets say

By David Postman
Seattle Times chief political reporter

	JOHN LOK / THE SEATTLE TIMES John Kerry greets a packed crowd last night at the Sheraton hotel in downtown Seattle. The Massachusetts senator made a strong showing yesterday and was campaigning ahead of Washington's Saturday caucus.
	E-mail this article Print this article Search archive Related stories In Tacoma, Dean focuses on outsider status In Seattle, Kerry touts 'beginning of the end' for Bush How to participate in Washington caucuses Other links How caucuses work, courtesy Washington State Democrats More caucus information from state's Democrats

When Democrats hold their presidential caucuses here Saturday, it'll be a battle that has split the state's party establishment between Howard Dean and John Kerry, both of whom spent the day here yesterday.

Party officials say the caucus is drawing unprecedented interest, and some predict a record turnout of more than 100,000.

"The last election that I felt this kind of energy was the 1968 election," said Jackie Barrett-Sharar, Thurston County Democratic chairwoman.

There are also national implications as Dean looks to secure his first win or make his last stand — or maybe both.

But to assess any predictive value in what Democrats here do, take a moment to remember the late Sen. Paul Tsongas.

In 1992 he trounced all comers in the state's Democratic presidential caucus. He dropped out of the race 11 days later.

Second choice was "uncommitted." Jerry Brown finished third. He's now mayor of Oakland.

Bill Clinton finished fourth, 20 percentage points behind Tsongas. He was a two-term Democratic president.

In 1988, eventual nominee Michael Dukakis won. But the Rev. Jesse Jackson finished a close second, one of his best showings.

SURVEY Does the outcome of last night's primary tally affect who you'll support in this Saturday's caucus? Yes, I'm changing my vote to the current leader, John Kerry I always supported Kerry I'm sticking with Wesley Clark I'm sticking with Howard Dean I'm sticking with John Edwards I'm sticking with Dennis Kucinich I'm sticking with Al Sharpton I support George Bush I support another candidate What's a caucus? View Results

In 1984 Colorado Sen. Gary Hart was the choice of state Democrats.

"We love the maverick," said state Party Chairman Paul Berendt. "We have laissez-faire politics. The farther you get from Washington, D.C., the more your own political culture just emerges on its own.

"We love the independent. We love people who are willing to stand up to the status quo."

Berendt was an early and is still an ardent supporter of Dean. Dean is backed by most of the party hierarchy, two former governors and U.S. Rep. Jim McDermott, the most-liberal member of the delegation.

He also has the backing of the Service Employees International Union and the public-employees union.

Kerry has been endorsed by Gov. Gary Locke, Sen. Maria Cantwell and the five other Democrats in the congressional delegation.

The Massachusetts senator has the backing of the League of Conservation Voters, veterans groups and the firefighters union.

Kerry and Dean were in the state yesterday rallying supporters in Spokane before Dean headed to Tacoma and Kerry to Seattle. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich was set to arrive late last night for a two-day stay.

Kerry was here as the front-runner, watching the results at the downtown Sheraton hotel as he racked up victories in five of seven states that held contests yesterday.

Dean was here trying to save his campaign.

"We're going to have a tough night tonight," Dean said at a rally in downtown Tacoma.

Washington's Democratic body politic is a mélange of liberal ideology, Scandinavian-rooted politeness and one of the country's weakest party structures.

In fact, Washington Democrats may be the most liberal the presidential candidates have faced yet.

At an appearance in Seattle last weekend, Dean said that while most Democrats have lost some of their passionate opposition to the war in Iraq, he was well aware that Washington Democrats had not.

Electability — the buzzword in early states about picking a nominee based on who would match up best with Bush in November — seems from here more an insider's game for players in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here, the candidates argue about who's more liberal, but they call it "progressive."

There is no party registration in Washington. To target potential caucus-goers the state party provides candidates with its list of people identified as Democratic through polling or from the now-defunct presidential preference primary, which allowed voters to choose a Republican, Democratic or "unaffiliated" ballot.

"There is a really tiny subset of people who consider themselves Democrats who go to the caucuses, so your message does not have to be incredibly appealing to a broad cross section of people," said Bill Dunbar, who managed Tsongas' campaign here.

That Dean was here is no surprise. The morning after his second-place finish in New Hampshire he signaled that he would largely be skimming over the seven states that voted yesterday to concentrate on caucuses Saturday in Washington and Michigan.

Dean has said there is no such thing as a "must win" state for him. But he came close to saying that yesterday at a town-hall meeting in Spokane.

"We need to win Washington state," Dean told about 250 people at a Spokane hospital. "Washington state will be the turning point, if we win, of this campaign."

That Kerry was here, too, was a sign of confidence in yesterday's vote and a figurative poke at Dean in what looks today like the only friendly territory still in play for the former Vermont governor.

"I just think it's important to run nationally and run in every state and prove you can do it," Kerry said. "I don't think you can cherry-pick states."

The state party had 46,000 hits on its caucus-finder Web page in January, and has had to hire temporary help to answer the phones.

"We're getting a lot of calls. Some are even calling because they want child care" for caucus morning, said Island County Democratic Chairwoman Grethe Cammermeyer.

Party-provided day care isn't available, even in the liberal islands where Cammermeyer said Dean and Kucinich are the "major movers and shakers" with cadres of passionate supporters.

County chairs in blue-collar Grays Harbor in Southwest Washington, in the ranch country of Kittitas in Central Washington and even up in the northwest corner of the state where Democrats are rare, say interest is at an all-time high.

"I will tell you I have been involved with politics for 50 years since I was a kid passing out buttons, and I don't ever remember seeing this much interest," said Rocky Beach, chairman of the Pend Oreille County Democrats. "It's basically, whatever it takes to beat Bush."

County party chairs said both Dean and Kerry are well-organized throughout the state — so organized that the incessant pre-recorded telephone calls with the candidates' voices aimed at Democrats will have "some people glad when Saturday's over," joked Lewis County Chairwoman Deanna Zieske.

Kucinich has some surprising pockets of support even in rural Washington, where retired Gen. Wesley Clark also has support.

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has few people speaking up for him so far.

But his campaign's recently anointed Washington state co-chair, Seattle attorney Jenny Durkan, said she thinks Edwards will do better than his absent campaign would indicate.

She predicted that there will be a movement toward her candidate after his strong showings yesterday.

"Uncommitted" also has a strong following.

"The voters in rural Washington are fiercely independent," said Whitman County Chairwoman Eileen Macoll.

She said a lot of Democrats in her area, herself included, want to remain uncommitted after the precinct caucuses so they do not have to choose a candidate before more of the primary campaign unwinds.

When Washington and Michigan cast votes Saturday, nearly as many delegates will be at stake as in all seven states that voted yesterday.

David Postman: 360-943-9882 or dpostman@seattletimes.com

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