Dean shakes up campaign before weekend trip here

By David Postman
Seattle Times chief political reporter

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As Howard Dean heads here for a weekend visit after retooling his campaign with cost-cutting and the departure of his high-profile campaign manager, local supporters remain optimistic he can recover from losses in the two opening contests.

But there are questions about the campaign's message, concerns about where Dean's much-vaunted young supporters are and a sense in some corners of a softening of support for the former Vermont governor.

If the main concern of Democrats is who can best beat President Bush, some Dean backers say, support could easily slip from their candidate to the new front-runner, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

"They may say, 'You're wonderful, you've got great ideas, but you're not the guy we think can win, and above all we need to get rid of Bush,' " said Rep. Jim McDermott, D-Seattle, a Dean supporter. "I see some evidence of that."

Washington has long looked like fertile ground for Dean. He drew his first huge crowds here, raised a lot of money from the state, and his anti-war platform resonated with liberal Democrats in the Seattle area.

The state's party officers are mostly Dean supporters, while the rank-and-file are strongly anti-war and have a history of supporting outsider candidates. Dean reiterated yesterday that he would visit Washington this weekend, though when and where had not been announced.

"There is a slug of interest in Washington state for Dean, and I don't think it's going to melt away, because he is, after all, the only guy who stood up to the president on the war," McDermott said. "And while that may not be the central issue for the broad public, it is going to be the issue for an awful lot of people who go to the caucuses."

The director of Dean's Washington campaign said yesterday there had been no loss of support for Dean here.

But nationally, there were signs of change and trouble yesterday in the campaign. The organization and its message could look different by the time Washington Democrats get their say in the nomination fight.

Dean replaced his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, with Al Gore's former chief of staff, Roy Neel, and asked staffers to defer their pay for two weeks.

Trippi was the architect of Dean's highly successful Internet fund-raising strategy and was rock-star popular among Dean volunteers.

Dean told reporters last night that he will not change his message or strategy, which has Washington looking more important after his early losses. Dean will travel over the next week to Washington and Michigan, which vote Feb. 7, and Wisconsin, which votes Feb. 17, rather than focusing solely on the seven states that hold contests Feb. 3.

"It's not over yet," said Greg Rodriguez, chairman of the King County Democratic Party and a Dean supporter.

He said it will be difficult for Dean to win any of the Feb. 3 states, but Michigan and Washington "can really provide him a huge bump. There is still a lot of support for him here. Even after Iowa, people were steadfast with him.

"Not that people aren't going to Kerry."

Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire shows that Democrats are picking their candidate in large part by who they think has the best chance of defeating Bush. That has meant there is little loyalty to any candidate, and no strong attachment on ideological or personality grounds.

Former Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg, in Seattle to promote his new book, contended Dean, who caught fire early, was really "only a vehicle" for Democratic rage at the Bush administration.

"It is not about these individuals," he said of the field of Democrats. The differences on the issues are not that great, he said, and Democrats want the candidate who can "stand on that stage and challenge George Bush."

Sen. Adam Kline, D-Seattle, a Dean supporter, is among the state's most committed liberal politicians. He talks a lot about issues and doesn't shy away from unpopular stands, even if it means being the lone vote against legislation.

But this year's presidential election is different, he says.

"At some point the status quo is so awful that it's not a question of policy anymore," he says. What's important to Kline is who can stop Bush's re-election.

"Even though I've endorsed Dean and feel Dean would be a much more competent president, I'm not really hurt by the fact that Kerry is doing well at Dean's expense," he said.

"This is not a question about whether Kerry is better policy-wise."

He has committed to voting for Dean on the 7th, and says he will go to his precinct caucus and make the best case he can.

"But it's not as if I'm crestfallen at the idea of losing."

Rodriguez said the national Dean campaign needs to focus more on Dean's record as governor of Vermont. He said highlighting Dean's fiscal conservatism and opposition to more federal gun laws could make him appeal more to moderate voters looking for the best matchup for Bush.

Both Rodriguez and McDermott said that as the campaign shifts to a truly national phase, Dean should emphasize health care more.

After campaigning for Dean in Iowa, Rodriguez was struck by the lack of young supporters in the caucuses. Much has been made of the youthful demographic of Dean's volunteers. That image was burnished by the campaign's use of the Internet to raise record amounts of money.

But when the votes were counted, more young people in Iowa voted for Kerry than for Dean, according to exit polls. Their votes were almost evenly split in New Hampshire.

"Like anything, they say they'll do something and don't," Rodriguez said. "You commit to something and then you're like, 'Ahhh, I've got an exam' or 'That keg looks good.'

"There was a lot of buzz because the Dean campaign utilized the Internet so well and the youth got involved in that. But when it comes down to actually going to a two-hour or three-hour meeting, they say, 'I don't want to do that. I'll sit at my computer and watch the results come in.' "

Seattle Times staff reporter Jim Brunner contributed to this report.

David Postman: 360-943-9882 or dpostman@seattletimes.com

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