Felix Hernandez looks like second-best in AL Cy Young race

Felix Hernandez was the epitome of a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in 2009, and it was a beautiful thing to watch.

He was dominant. He was clutch. He was consistent. He was a horse, in the best sense of the word.

What King Felix wasn't was the best pitcher in the American League.

That statement will pain most Mariners fans, and anger some. They won't be any happier, I suspect, when the American League's Cy Young Award is announced today.

I fully expect it to go to Kansas City's Zack Greinke. And furthermore, it should.

Because as brilliant as Hernandez was in 2009 — and watching him blossom into the bona fide No. 1 ace that everyone knew lurked within him was one of the highlights of Seattle's season — his year didn't quite measure up to Greinke's.

No shame there. Greinke had one of the great seasons of recent times. Hernandez would have been Cy Young in most years. Just not this one. And from my discussions with members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, that seems to be a consensus opinion.

"I definitely think that Greinke will win the Cy Young Award, perhaps quite easily," said Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "He was in the driver's seat all of the way, and never had a hiccup along the way to permit Hernandez or [CC] Sabathia or anyone else to slip past him. Simply, he was on top, and he never permitted anyone to knock him off."

"It's all about Greinke, who did the most with less than any other candidate," said John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle. "... Greinke wasn't as dominant as Steve Carlton the year Carlton won 27 of the Phillies' 59 games, but the 2009 season made people talk about Greinke and Carlton in the same breath, and that's enough of a reason Greinke deserves the Cy Young Award."

Perhaps Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune said it best: "Nothing wrong with what Felix did, but like [Albert] Pujols in 2001, he just picked a bad year to have a great year, because someone else was even greater."

In some ways, this vote will be a referendum on whether BBWAA members, oft-criticized for their awards voting — and rightfully so in some instances, I must admit — have become more sophisticated in their analyses.

Because if it's just about wins and losses, then Felix, at 19-5 to Greinke's 16-8, has a great case — and New York's Sabathia (19-8) and Detroit's Justin Verlander (19-9, with the league lead in strikeouts) are knocking at the door, too.

But Greinke's case is one that shines brighter the deeper one looks. The first thing to consider is that he played for the team with the league's worst defense. The Royals' UZR (ultimate zone rating) was -49.9, while Seattle was the league's best at 85.5 (meaning that according to this metric, M's fielders saved 85 runs, while Royals fielders cost their team 50 runs).

Greinke also labored under the worst run support in the league during his starts, and was hampered by the bullpen with the highest earned-run average. As Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star wrote, "Outside of food poisoning, it's hard to think of how Greinke's teammates could have helped him less."

If you look at the so-called "SABR" stats, Greinke is absolutely dominant, with the highest VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) for any AL pitcher, and the highest WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WPA (Win Probability Added) in baseball, not to mention blowing everyone away with his ERA-Plus, which adjusts for ballpark factors.

More conventionally, his 2.16 ERA (compared to 2.49 for runner-up Hernandez) was not just the lowest in the majors; and not just the lowest in the American League since Pedro Martinez in 2000. It's lower than that produced by anyone since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973 except Pedro (twice), Roger Clemens (twice), Ron Guidry and Jim Palmer.

And Greinke not only led the majors in ERA, he also led in WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) and home runs per nine innings while ranking second in strikeouts, quality starts, shutouts, complete games and batting average against.

It's possible to put forward a compelling case for Hernandez, and the Mariners' PR staff did an excellent job of just that. He led the American League in winning percentage (.792), joined Roy Halladay as the only pitcher in the top five in all three pitching Triple Crown categories (W-ERA-K), recorded a quality start in 24 of his last 25 starts, going 15-2 with a 1.98 ERA after May 24, and he went 15-4, 2.46 after an M's loss.

There's more — but for every number in Hernandez's favor, Greinke can counter with two. Greinke overcome his Royals-based hardships to soar ever so slightly above Felix. If Hernandez was the Empire State Building in 2009, Greinke was the Sears Tower.

As Sports Illustrated's astute Joe Posnanski — who is based in Kansas City — said in an e-mail, "I think Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez were the two best pitchers in the American League. I think Greinke was a touch better."

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com