Mariners, GM Jack Zduriencik, face challenging offseason

Jack Zduriencik correctly calls 2009 "a year of redirection" for the Mariners. But after all the hugs and pies and victory laps of Sunday, the big question is: Which direction do the M's head now?

So many questions. So many mysteries. So many possibilities.

The players are heading home to their various cities, countries and continents.

Now it's Zduriencik's time.

The offseason began Monday with a staff meeting to plot the future. How well Zduriencik navigates the awesome challenges of the winter of '09/10 will dictate whether this year is a breakthrough or a blip.

It was Zduriencik's predecessor, Bill Bavasi, who once made the cogent point that taking a team from bad to respectable is infinitely easier than taking it from respectable to championship-caliber.

Bavasi proved it, following the one respectable year under his watch, the 88-win aberration of 2007, with the 101-loss disaster in 2008.

The great source of hope for Mariners fans is that Zduriencik, in his brief tenure — he doesn't celebrate his anniversary as Seattle GM until Oct. 22 — has shown himself to be an executive of vision and imagination.

He'll need both this year as he endeavors to solve the Rubik's Cube that lies in front of him, with innumerable possible twists and turns. And that's just Ken Griffey Jr.

Last year, Zduriencik unearthed Franklin Gutierrez, David Aardsma and Russell Branyan. He cleverly ridded the team of some of the dregs of the previous regime. He hired a manager who succeeded in getting the team to buy in totally to his team-first preachings.

Now here comes the tough part. Zduriencik will continue his never-ending search for the undervalued gem hiding on some team's roster or in its farm system. With his scouting background, it's what he does best.

But now the Mariners have some money to play with. Roughly $46 million is coming off the books from free agents at the end of their contracts, though some of those will no doubt be retained, and other players will get large arbitration raises, led by Felix Hernandez. Still, there will be enough freed salary to give the Mariners the opportunity to dabble in the free-agent market or acquire a high-salaried player in a trade.

"You try not to put a Band-Aid on it and do something that's just a knee-jerk reaction," Zduriencik said last week in a meeting with reporters. "It's not a ticket to go out and spend it just because you have it. What I want to do is spend our dollars wisely."

The Bavasi regime was an honors thesis in the risks of profligate spending without the acumen to throw money at the right people. But building through free agency doesn't have to be a fool's errand, if done prudently.

This is not a bumper crop of free agents, but there are some intriguing names out there. Chone Figgins. Hideki Matsui. Nick Johnson. Rich Harden. Just to a name a few.

Considering that the Mariners had the lowest production in baseball from their left fielders (and it's not even close — 10 homers, 48 runs batted in, and a .609 OPS), the name Jason Bay jumps out. Especially when you consider that Bay is from British Columbia, attended Gonzaga and lives in Seattle.

Yet the Mariners now place a huge emphasis on defense, and Bay's fielding numbers are middling to poor. He has the inherent disadvantage, at Safeco, of hitting right-handed. And are they really going to outbid the Red Sox, who aren't going to let his 36 homers, 119 RBI and .921 OPS get away easily (or cheaply)? Yet it could be worth a shot.

There have also been rumblings that Prince Fielder — he of the 46 homers and 141 RBI — might be put on the market by the Brewers. If so, the Mariners, who could clearly use one more big left-handed bat in the middle of the order, are an obvious fit — particularly in light of the fact that Zduriencik was Milwaukee's scouting director when it drafted Fielder.

Two problems with this scenario, however. One, someone close to the Brewers told me Monday they highly doubted the Brewers, trying to keep happy a fan base that came out three million strong to Miller Park, would trade the hugely popular Fielder, unless they were absolutely blown away by the package.

And two, the Mariners would be inheriting a contract situation identical to Hernandez's; Fielder, too, is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, and would need to be locked up to a staggering extension. Yet that, too, is something to tuck away as the long winter begins.

Zduriencik's No. 1 job — the one from which all other decisions will flow — is to get Hernandez locked up to a long-term contract. Or, if in the course of talks with Hernandez's agent, Alan Nero, Zduriencik comes to the conclusion that such an outcome is impossible, he must act accordingly. And that would likely be to advance the incredibly painful process of examining the trade possibilities for a 23-year-old Cy Young candidate who has figured out what it takes to win, and win big.

A Hernandez extension, however, doesn't seem like a pipe dream. Hernandez thrived under the current coaching staff, he's comfortable with his teammates and the city, and he put up a magical season. The Mariners must balance the massive outlay of cash it would take to retain Hernandez against the inherent risks in locking up any pitcher, even one as gifted as King Felix, to a long-term deal.

This should be a fascinating offseason on numerous levels. I can't wait to see how it unfolds.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com. More columns at www.seattletimes.com/columnists