Mariners deserve big All-Star contingent

The Mariners haven't had more than two All-Star selections in one season since they sent five to Chicago in 2003 — the last vestige of the glory years at Safeco Field before the bottom dropped out of M's baseball.

On the surface, this hardly seems the year for the Mariners to once again pepper the American League with players. They're having a nice rebound season, no doubt, but they're in the middle of the pack in the AL, barely on the national radar.

Yet anyone mulling over a potential All-Star team — the real one, with its intricate mixture of fan and player voting as well as managerial selections, will be announced today — will see how persuasive a case there is for four Mariners to be in St. Louis on July 14.

I know, it sounds homerish. But you tell me which one to leave off: the guy who leads the major league in batting average, Ichiro? The guy who ranks third in on-base-plus-slugging percentage and second in home runs in the American League, Russell Branyan? The guy with the second-highest rate of strikeouts per nine innings and third-lowest earned-run average in the league among qualifying pitchers, along with 17 saves in 18 chances (with six holds), David Aardsma? Or the guy who has emerged as one of the legitimate aces in the game, Felix Hernandez?

I'm going to put all four on my team, and risk the backlash. I'm going to go out on an even bigger limb and predict that this is the year the National League finally gets back in the win column, ending an All-Star drought that now stretches 12 years. The last NL victory was in 1996, a stretch interrupted only by the inglorious 2002 tie.

Why will the NL win? Will "because they're due" do? I just envision Albert Pujols rising to the moment in his home ballpark, with starting pitcher Tim Lincecum — provided he can stay healthy after being too sick to suit up last year at Yankee Stadium — mowing down the AL hitters to set the tone.

Here are my 33-man squads (increased by one over last year, when teams came perilously close to running out of players again during the AL's 4-3 victory in 15 innings) for each league.

As always, don't forget that every major-league team must be represented. The Nationals, too.

American League

First base

Who's leading: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox.

Who should start: Youkilis.

Reserves: Justin Morneau, Twins; Russell Branyan, Mariners; Mark Teixeira, Yankees.

Comment: It's hard to argue with Youkilis' outrageous .439 on-base percentage, not to mention his 1.032 OPS, No. 2 in the league. This position, as always, is ridiculously loaded. Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Pena deserve to go, too.

Second base

Who's leading: Ian Kinsler, Rangers.

Who should start: Ben Zobrist, Rays.

Reserves: Kinsler; Aaron Hill, Blue Jays.

Comment: Another bountiful position. MVP Dustin Pedroia gets aced out, as do Brian Roberts, on his way to 50 doubles, and Robinson Cano. The revelation is Zobrist, who has settled at second base after playing some in the outfield. He leads the league in slugging percentage and OPS.

Shortstop

Who's leading: Derek Jeter, Yankees.

Who should start: Jason Bartlett, Rays.

Reserve: Jeter; Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays.

Comment: I have no problem whatsoever with Jeter starting, even with his demonstrably declining defense. I firmly believe in star power in the All-Star Game, and Jeter has it in multitudes. Bartlett, not yet — but he has the numbers (like a .362 batting average; not bad for a glove guy).

Third base

Who's leading: Evan Longoria, Rays.

Who should start: Longoria.

Reserve: Brandon Inge, Detroit.

Comment: It feels a bit weird not to type in Alex Rodriguez, but this could be the start of the Longoria reign. At the very least, those two should battle it out for the next few years. Yeah, I know, we almost have an all-Rays infield.

Catcher

Who's leading: Joe Mauer, Twins.

Who should start: Mauer.

Reserve: Victor Martinez, Indians

Comment: Easiest call this side of Albert Pujols.

Outfield

Who's leading: Jason Bay, Red Sox; Ichiro, Mariners; Josh Hamilton, Rangers.

Who should start: Ichiro; Torii Hunter, Angels; Carl Crawford, Rays.

Reserves: Bay; Adam Jones, Orioles; Jermaine Dye, White Sox.

Comment: Not too many balls will drop in that outfield. Apologies to Nick Markakis, Johnny Damon, Adam Lind (the standout DH in a game without one) — and Franklin Gutierrez, who is all-world with the glove and gaining with his bat.

Pitchers

Who should be selected: Zach Greinke, Royals; Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander, Tigers; Felix Hernandez and David Aardsma, Mariners; Roy Halladay, Blue Jays; Kevin Millwood, Rangers; Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox; Jered Weaver, Angels; Joe Nathan, Twins; Mariano Rivera, Yankees; Andrew Bailey, A's.

Comment: AL manager Joe Maddon's biggest decision will be choosing a starter from among Greinke, Halladay, Hernandez and Verlander, and a closer from among Papelbon, Rivera and Nathan.

National League

First base

Who's leading: Albert Pujols, Cardinals.

Who should start: Pujols.

Reserves: Prince Fielder, Brewers; Adrian Gonzalez, Padres.

Comment: There's Pujols, and then there's everyone else. This trio represents 76 homers — and I have a hunch NL manager Charlie Manuel will find a way to get Ryan Howard and his 20 homers onto the roster.

Second base

Who's leading: Chase Utley, Phillies.

Who should start: Utley.

Reserves: Freddy Sanchez, Pirates; Orlando Hudson, Dodgers.

Comment: The fans pretty much nailed the NL vote across the board. It's Utley by a longshot.

Shortstop

Who's leading: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins.

Who should start: Ramirez.

Reserve: Miguel Tejada, Astros.

Comment: Ramirez has quietly become one of the premier players in baseball — not so quietly if you've been paying attention. Here are his full-season projections: .348 average, 104 runs, 54 doubles, 27 homers, 121 RBI, 25 steals, .413 on-base percentage, .572 slugging percentage. And, yes, he's a shortstop.

Third base

Who's leading: David Wright, Mets.

Who should start: Wright.

Reserves: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals; Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks.

Comment: Wright and Zimmerman were summer-league teammates growing up in the Tidewater area of Virginia, and now they'll likely be All-Star teammates. I went back and forth between Reynolds and the Giants' Pablo Sandoval for the final spot, and finally went for Reynolds and his power-speed combo — never mind the projected 222 strikeouts. He also projects to 46 homers and 27 steals.

Catcher

Who's leading: Yadier Molina, Cardinals.

Who should start: Brian McCann, Braves.

Reserves: Bengie Molina, Giants; Yadier Molina, Cardinals.

Comment: It will be a Molina fiesta at Busch Stadium in a down year for NL catchers. Too bad third brother Jose Molina has played just 16 games for the Yankees because of a quad injury.

Outfield

Who's leading: Raul Ibanez, Phillies; Ryan Braun, Brewers; Carlos Beltran, Mets.

Who should start: Ibanez; Braun; Brad Hawpe, Rockies.

Reserves: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks; Adam Dunn, Nationals; Andre Ethier, Dodgers.

Comment: Ibanez has been on the disabled list since June 18 with a groin injury, and he still has the numbers to justify his first All-Star appearance. He trails only Pujols in slugging percentage, is third in OPS, and still ranks top five in homers and RBI despite being out three weeks. Speaking of being out, Beltran will miss the game with a knee injury.

Pitchers

Who should be selected: Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, Giants; Dan Haren, Diamondbacks; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Chad Billingsley, Dodgers; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Ted Lilly, Cubs; Yovani Gallardo and Trevor Hoffman, Brewers; Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; Heath Bell, Padres; Ryan Franklin, Cardinals.

Comment: Yeah, Ryan Franklin in an All-Star Game, weird. But it's hard to argue with 19 saves in 20 attempts and an 0.87 ERA. Speaking of ex-Mariners, you could make a very strong case for Atlanta's Rafael Soriano and his 49 strikeouts in 37-2/3 innings, 1.19 ERA, seven saves in eight chances and six holds. Horacio Ramirez has slightly less glittering credentials. It's also hard to leave off Javier Vazquez, Aaron Cook, Francisco Cordero and Jonathan Braxton. But I did. Can't wait to see Lincecum take on the AL's best — finally.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com