Cubs will win it all this year. Really.

The chic media quest this spring was to sniff out the "next Tampa Bay Rays" — as if that team's once-a-quarter-century breakout magic can be annually replicated.

Oh, it's possible, of course, but not many teams want to adhere to the first step: Finish in last place nine out of 10 years and horde high draft picks. Yup, that's the Rays' formula for overnight success — give or take a few brilliant acquisitions along the way.

Not that it has helped the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are the next Tampa Bay Rays in their dreams, but still the Pirates — 16 years under .500 and counting — in their fans' nightmares. The yucky Buccos are due for an upturn one of these days; then again, so is General Motors.

Sorry, but there will be no "next Rays" in 2009, unless you count ... the Rays, my choice to repeat as champion in the ridiculously rugged American League East.

It's easy to argue that the three best teams in the American League — if not all of baseball — reside in the AL East. Yet only two of the Holy Trinity of the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees can advance to postseason play.

That spirited six-month demolition derby should be one to savor. I've got my money on the Red Sox getting the wild card, with the Yankees as odd juggernaut out.

That won't go over well with the Steinbrenners, who shelled out $423.5 million over the winter to land free agents CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett — the better to burnish their modest little $1.5 billion ballpark, with the modest little $2,625 price tag for top seats and $425,250 for a pair of high-end season tickets.

One of these days, the Yankees will figure out that whenever they resort to throwing money at their problems, willy nilly (not to be confused with Willie Bloomquist), they invariably regress. And at a time when Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Johnny Damon are getting long in the tooth, and Alex Rodriguez is getting short in the truth (a dubious explanation of his steroids dalliance), they can no longer be automatically penciled into the postseason.

All that said, I've picked the Cleveland Indians to win the pennant this year. They have a power-packed lineup, enough front-line pitching to suffice in a short series, a potential dominant closer in Kerry Wood, and one of the shrewdest management teams in baseball, led by Mark Shapiro.

I talked to Shapiro during the winter about the growing industry trend toward emphasizing homegrown talent. The Rays, who have their eventual ace, David Price, in the minor leagues to start the season, are the poster boys, as was surprise pennant winner Colorado the year before.

With the economic downturn making it harder for teams to dabble in high-priced, high-risk veterans, the draft-and-develop model has officially usurped the spend-and-spend-some-more model.

Then there are the Red Sox, MLB's only two-time World Series champion in the 2000s, who bridge both worlds.

"Boston made it extremely clear that the most dominant and powerful combination is an extreme level of resources, combined with an internal plan for developing players," Shapiro said. "That's our worst nightmare. It's basically insurmountable. Fortunately, anything can still happen in five- and seven-game series — and they're not in our division."

For both those reasons, I pick the Indians to prevail, two years after they took a three-games-to-one lead over the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series and somehow missed the World Series. Where was the midge infestation when they really needed it?

Before I get to my World Series champion (hint: even 98-year-old Bob Sheppard, who we fervently hope gets to introduce players at the new Yankee Stadium, wasn't born when this team last won a World Series), let's review some of the highlights of the upcoming season.

Of course, all eyes will be on the turnstiles, and how much the recession cuts into ticket sales. Many ominous signs point toward a rather dramatic attendance downturn, which could have major ramifications on, among other things, the free-agent class of 2010. They might find that the tribulations of Bobby Abreu (who had visions of a three-year, $30 million deal but settled for a one-year, $5 million contract) and Garret Anderson (whose salary dropped from $12 million with the Angels to $2.5 million with the Braves) were a sign of things to come.

Not that they'll get much pity from fans involved in their own workday struggles. One harbinger will be the June draft, with once-in-a-lifetime pitcher Stephen Strasburg already being positioned by agent Scott Boras (who teams wish was never-in-a-lifetime) for a $50 million payday.

That's light years beyond any No. 1 pick, an audacious gambit in these tough times. Considering that the Mariners own the No. 2 overall pick, behind the Washington Nationals, this is a story to monitor closely.

A-Rod, of course, will be riveting theater when he comes back from his hip surgery, presumably in May, and faces what will be an even more hostile road environment than normal. Just think what the Fenway denizens will do with this new steroids development.

The season will feature two opulent (if not ostentatious) new stadiums, both in New York, and one stadium in its final year (the Metrodome, God rest its Hefty bags). There will be two new managers (Don Wakamatsu in Seattle, Ken Macha in Milwaukee), and two others who took over midway through last year — the Mets' Jerry Manuel and the Blue Jays' Cito Gaston.

Gary Sheffield, sitting on 499 home runs, figures to get No. 500, but first he needs to find a team to sign him after being released by Detroit earlier this week. Carlos Delgado is 31 homers shy of 500, while Randy Johnson, now teamed with Tim Lincecum in San Francisco, needs just five more victories to reach 300.

That brings us, in a roundabout way, to the man who managed a good share of the Big Unit's wins, Lou Piniella.

Sweet Lou has been golden for the Cubs in the regular season, winning back-to-back Central Division titles. But he's been a postseason dud with a pair of one-and-dones in the Division Series, going 0-6 in the process.

This year, however, I see the Cubs finally busting the door down, and ending 101 years of frustration. They should romp to the division title, and I envision Piniella willing them to the World Series this time. Of course, if I had a dollar for every time Cubs fans have envisioned this outcome, I could pay one month of A-Rod's salary.

But this time, it's really, truly going to happen. And then, next spring, we can ruminate on who will be "the next Cubs." I've already got the answer. It will be ... the Cubs.

In 2110.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com