Mariners could still get a winner with No. 2 draft pick

When the Mariners won their final three games last weekend, it caused a minor uproar among a segment of their fan base.

The M's, after all, could have clinched the No. 1 overall draft pick by losing two games against the A's. Many felt that was the least they could do after putting their faithful through 101 losses already.

Instead, the Washington Nationals were swept by Philadelphia and sank beneath Seattle into the No. 1 draft slot. The Mariners will select No. 2 for just the second time in franchise history, having landed pitcher Bill Swift out of the University of Maine in 1984.

To one interested observer, Seattle's weekend sweep of Oakland was noted, but not lamented.

"My attitude is, whatever happens, happens," said Bob Fontaine, the Mariners' scouting director, who is already hard at work preparing for next June's draft. "One or two, we're going to get a good player."

Pressed further, Fontaine insisted that no part of him was rooting for Mariners defeats.

"You may say, 'Come on, Bob,' but it's true," he said. "Every time your team is on the field, you want to win. And you want players that want to win. I wanted us to win every friggin' game we could, and let everything else fall where it falls. I'm sincere with that."

Fontaine knows from experience what a study of draft history reveals: There are no sure things. And that goes for Stephen Strasburg, despite his deification by scouts and media. The San Diego State pitcher is regarded as the consensus 2009 No. 1 pick and a can't-miss superstar.

Just like can't-miss No. 1 picks Steve Chilcott, Danny Goodwin, Bill Almon, Al Chambers, Shawn Abner, Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson, Matt Anderson, Bryan Bullington and Matt Bush.

Check out the accompanying chart. While some No. 1 picks have been wildly successful — the Mariners have hit it big twice, with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez — far more often they have been pedestrian, or washouts.

What's more, pitchers taken with the No. 1 pick have been especially erratic. Here's the complete list; have fun picking out the franchise-changers: David Clyde, Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher, Andy Benes, Ben McDonald, Taylor, Wilson, Kris Benson, Anderson, Bullington, Luke Hochevar, David Price.

There are some solid pros among them, and some of the newer names might yet break out. But there's not one 20-game winner or Cy Young honoree, and few aces. In fact, those 13 pitchers have produced a combined three All-Star appearances and a cumulative 806-845 record (.488 winning percentage). Moore, picked No. 1 by the Mariners in 1981, is the leading winner among top picks at 161-176.

Strasburg, an Olympian who struck out 23 in a game against Utah last year, is regarded as a sure thing. But June is still a long way away, and his status could be changed by injury or the emergence of another player.

"One thing I've learned is that the scenario you think is going to happen in October, come next June it could be completely different," said Fontaine. "We have to be prepared for whatever happens."

In 22 years as a scouting director, he has had a No. 1 overall pick (Darin Erstad in 1995) and a No. 3 (Troy Glaus in 1997), but never a No. 2.

"Probably the one thing that really helps when you draft high, real high, it doesn't take as long to get together the group of guys you consider," Fontaine said. "That allows you to look deeper into the draft. You have more time to get into the second, third and fourth picks, and really study hard."

Evaluating the top of the '09 draft, Fontaine said, "It looks to be a real solid pitching draft at the collegiate level."

Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America, termed Strasburg "head and shoulders above the 2009 draft class right now, much like David Price was in 2007. But that doesn't mean the Mariners can't get a tremendous player at No. 2.

"After Price went off the board [to Tampa Bay], guys like Mike Moustakas, Matt Wieters, Matt LaPorta, Madison Bumgarner and Jason Heyward were still on the board, and all of those guys look like they're going to be stars, too."

Ranking the next group of prospects after Strasburg, Callis mentioned USC shortstop Grant Green ("supposed to be a cross between Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria") and North Carolina first baseman/outfielder Dustin Ackley ("the best pure hitter in the draft and a possible center fielder.")

As for pitching, there's North Carolina's Alex White and California high-schooler Tyler Matzek in the group behind Strasburg. Other names rated highly are Kyle Gibson of Missouri, Kendal Volz of Baylor and Mike Minor of Vanderbilt.

One other factor that could come into play in June is Straburg's "adviser," said to be Scott Boras. He has had a stormy relationship with Nats president Stan Kasten, and it is conceivable Washington would bypass Strasburg to avoid dealing with the agent.

But many of the other top prospects are expected to have Boras as their adviser. And the Nationals have added urgency to make a good pick after not signing their No. 1 draftee last year, Missouri pitcher Aaron Crow (represented by the Hendrick brothers, Randy and Alan). Crow, the No. 9 overall pick, now goes back into the draft.

"If they have the No. 1 pick and don't pick the best talent, there would be so much fan backlash after what happened last year," said Allan Simpson of the Web site pgcrosschecker.com, which analyzes amateur prospects. "I don't see it."

So the M's will most likely be pondering a draft field that doesn't include Strasburg when Bud Selig says, "The Seattle Mariners are on the clock." Which doesn't faze Fontaine one bit.

"Look at the drafts the last five or six years," he said. "Some of the guys at two through six have been pretty darned good players, including one guy who hit two home runs [Thursday] night. He was picked third."

The reference was to Longoria, the No. 3 pick in the 2006 draft, who emerged this year as a star for Tampa Bay and homered twice against the White Sox in his postseason debut.

If the M's can get another Longoria in June, their fans will probably forgive them for sweeping the A's last weekend.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com