In a series made for Hollywood, Angels will top Dodgers

My heart tells me to go with the Cubs, and the feel-good spectacle of 100 years of misery ending in a Wrigley Field dogpile, with Lou Piniella beaming from the dugout and Steve Bartman weeping with joy from his hideout.

My heart also tells me to go with the Rays, and the classic rags-to-riches saga of a perennial doormat rising from the depths of 96 losses, with nothing but guts, passion and a $41 million payroll.

My heart even tells me to go with the Brewers, the longest of longshots, who survived a September collapse to ride piggyback on CC Sabathia into their first postseason appearance since the Robin Yount era.

My brain, however, is telling my heart to shut up, rude cerebral cortex that it is. After picking the Cubs to win it all last year and watching them get swept by Arizona in the first round, I second that lack of emotion.

And so, as the 2008 baseball playoffs begin today, I'm going with the chalk. I'm going cold and calculated, not frenzied and far-reaching. Forget longshots, underdogs and teams of destiny; I'm going with the best team all year, boring as that might be.

I'm going with the Angels.

Yeah, the Los Angeles Rally Monkeys of Anaheim, baseball's only 100-win team, the ones that clinched way back on Sept. 10, when the U.S. financial system was still hale and hearty. Well, about as hale and hearty as the Mets, anyway.

Six years after winning it all, the Angels are primed for another postseason rampage, and here's the weird part. They're only going to have to drive 40 miles to finish it off.

See, I'm not totally devoid of emotional tugs this October. I see none other than the Dodgers, with Manny Being Mighty and Joe being Genius, coming through the National League to forge the first Freeway Series.

And the Angels will prevail in the Smog Spectacular, because they have the fewest holes and the deepest staff, because they finally have that elusive "one more bat" to protect Vladdy, in the person of Mark Teixeira, and because they have the wondrous K-Rod at the end to slam the door.

Oh, yeah, they also have the savviest manager in baseball in Mike Scioscia. Granted, he's not infallible. Since winning the crown in 2002, the Angels have been swept by the Red Sox in the division series in both '04 and '07, and lost to the White Sox in five games in the '05 American League Championship Series.

But these Angels are better than those Angels. These Angels lost their first game this season to Boston — once again, their first-round opponent, but this time with L.A. having the home-field advantage — and then won their next eight.

These Angels are the healthiest they've been all season, with Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick back in the lineup after an array of nagging injuries. They have John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders lined up in the rotation (with Jered Weaver and Jon Garland in reserve), two hard-throwing rookies (Jose Arredondo and Kevin Jepsen) to augment Francisco Rodriguez, and the defensive genius of Torii Hunter in center.

The X-factor for Boston is the health of Josh Beckett, who has an oblique injury and has been pushed back to Game 3. Beckett has been the difference-maker in two World Series ('03 with Florida, and '07 with Boston), but this year has been shakier, and the injury is ominous.

Tacoma's Jon Lester, getting better by the week, appears ready for the challenge of a Game 1 start, and Dice-K is a formidable No. 2. But without a dominant Beckett, I give the edge to L.A. The Angels in five.

Scioscia's protégé, Joe Maddon, has woven his own brand of magic in Tampa Bay, and the Rays should have little trouble with the White Sox, who survived Tuesday's play-in game in Chicago.

The Rays have proved indisputably that they're ready for prime time, having withstood every charge by the Red Sox in baseball's toughest division. There's nothing quite like the first playoff foray, and the Rays will ride the wave to a three-game sweep.

The Angels-Rays ALCS will be a doozy, and if Carl Crawford can come back from his hand injury to rejoin their lineup, the Rays will give the Angels a major fight. The Rays are reminiscent of the 1995 Mariners, a team that has come to believe in its own inevitability.

But remember how that turned out, amid the tumult and hysteria — the M's were jolted into reality by a superior Cleveland team, just as the Rays will be jolted to reality by the Angels. In six.

In the National League, the Cubs are the people's choice, and for good reason. Who can't get behind a team that has been waiting for a title since 1908, a team with lovable Lou Piniella as its manager and quaint old Wrigley Field as its backdrop?

The Cubs are good, very good, but the September shakiness of Carlos Zambrano, who surrounded his no-hitter with a series of erratic performances, should really scare their fans. Zambrano could throw a two-hit shutout or get knocked out in the fourth. Cubs fans know deep in their heart of hearts which way it's going to go.

Since winning it all in 1990 with the Reds, Piniella's teams have been ousted in the division series twice (1997 and 2007) and in the LCS three times (1995, 2000, 2001).

Lou is absolutely burning to get this accomplished, and certainly has the talent to go all the way. But if Manny Ramirez can get on one of his otherworldly rolls — such as the .412 he hit in the '04 World Series, or the .409 he hit in the '07 ALCS; heck, how about the .396 he hit in 53 games with L.A. after coming over from Boston — the Dodgers will ride him a long way. Like a four-game series win over the Cubs, for starters.

The Phillies will handle the Brewers, who, unfortunately for them, can't pitch Sabathia every night (even though he'd probably be agreeable). With Ben Sheets once again nursing a sore arm, the Brew Crew, gallant though it was in the final week, just doesn't have the pitching chops (or brats). Phillies in four.

Speaking of pitching-chop deficiencies, the Phillies have to be worried about Brett Myers, who struggled mightily down the stretch (19 hits and 16 runs allowed in his final 8-1/3 innings).

On the other hand, the Phillies do have ageless Jamie Moyer and his prize pupil Cole Hamels, as well as flawless closer Brad Lidge, who has some postseason demons to exorcise.

The Phillies also have some monsters in the lineup, led by feast-or-famine slugger Ryan Howard (48 homers, 199 strikeouts).

But the Dodgers have some emerging stars like Matt Kemp, Russell Martin and James Loney to support Ramirez, and a proven playoff warrior in Derek Lowe to lead a pitching staff you might be surprised to learn had the lowest ERA (3.68) in the National League. Dodgers in six.

The World Series, of course, will be a magnet to the Hollywood glitterati. I envision Arnold Schwarzenegger fighting Lindsay Lohan for screen time, with lots and lots of Charlie Sheen and way too much Lauren Conrad.

Kirk Gibson won't be around to save the Dodgers this time. Maybe Kirk Cameron, but that's only at the postgame gala. Look for Vladimir Guerrero to make the most of the national spotlight he's long deserved, leading the Angels to the title in seven games.

It will be so exciting, the Southern California fans will stay until at least the seventh inning.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com