2008 baseball hunches: Pirates, Rays and a new Yankees boss

I have a hunch about the Pirates. Put them down as the surprise team of 2008.

Stop laughing and hear me out. This is precisely why I love this time of year. It's actually possible to work up a good case of optimism about arguably the least successful, most poorly run franchise in the major leagues.

Yeah, yeah, they're working on 15 straight losing seasons, and, granted, made no significant changes from last year's 94-loss team. But have you checked out that rotation? Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Zach Dukes, Matt Morris — not bad. Not bad at all, despite the fact casual fans have probably never heard of most of them.

If it sounds like I'm getting itchy for the season, you've got that right. The long, agonizing wait is almost over — but enough about Adam Jones' physical with the Orioles.

Some people say that Super Bowl Sunday should be a national holiday, but put me down for opening day. (And, no, those games no one saw in Japan don't count. I'm all for the internationalization of the sport, but fans are being cheated when showcase games start at 3 in the morning PDT).

The true opening day will take place on Sunday, when (giggle) Odalis Perez (I just double-checked my notes; yup, it's really Odalis Perez) takes to the mound for the Washington Nationals at their new baseball palace to face the Atlanta Braves. Provided, of course, that Major League Baseball comes through with $40,000 in payola for their respective coaching staffs.

(Not to burst the bubble of Nats fans, but it can't bode well when the best you can come up with for the coveted opening-day start is a guy who had a 5.57 earned-run average last year and was hit at a .318 clip by opponents. Melido Perez might have been a better choice.)

I like the looks of this impending season. But then again, I always do, from the late spring-training vantage point, with the notable exception of the pre-settlement 1995 replacement spring, among the most dismal and disheartening six weeks ever endured by the Grand Old Game.

Besides the latest stadium unveiling in D.C., the 2008 season will mark the end of the line for both New York ballparks. The Yankees and Mets are moving into about $2 billion worth of opulence next season, which means this year will be marked by endless testimonials to the House That Ruth Built. As for the House that Marv Throneberry built, uh, good riddance.

It's always necessary, at the outset of a new season, to take an assessment of who wound up where.

Joe Torre is now managing the Dodgers, while Joe Girardi is the Yankees' skipper. But the real Yankees development is that a new, mouthy Steinbrenner, Yammerin' Hank, George's 50-year-old son, is running the show. That bodes well for the always-volatile Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, especially after the Young Boss demeaned the concept of "Red Sox Nation" in an offseason interview:

"What a bunch of BS that is ... that was a creation of the Red Sox and ESPN, which is filled with Red Sox fans ... This is a Yankee country. We're going to put the Yankees back on top and restore the universe to order."

Speaking of disrupted universes, consider: Johan Santana as a Met, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis as Tigers, Andruw Jones as a Dodger, Torii Hunter as an Angel, Dan Haren as a Diamondback, Nick Swisher on the White Sox and Erik Bedard as a Mariner (provided Jones' MRI checks out, of course).

Still waiting for work are Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Freddy Garcia, Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez. Not to mention Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa, who barring unforeseen developments, will all be lumped together in five years in one huge migraine headache of a Hall of Fame vote. Put me down for Craig Biggio, and I'll get back to you.

Here are a few milestones to watch for this year: Ken Griffey Jr.'s 600th home run (he has 593); the 500th home run for Manny Ramirez (491) and Gary Sheffield (480); Tom Glavine's 200th loss (sitting at 199, he probably won't have his family travel from park to park, as he did last year for his 300th win).

Don't hold your breath for Bonds' 3,000th hit, even though he's poised on the brink at 2,935. And who knows about Randy Johnson's quest for 300 victories? The key numbers for him are 284 (wins), 44 (years old) and 2 (back surgeries the past two years).

But I have a hunch: Put the Big Unit down for a big year (say, 17-6, 3.01 ERA, 212 strikeouts in 189 innings, and win No. 300 on Sept. 10 against the Giants, when he'll scatter five hits and two runs over seven innings; sometimes my hunches are very detailed).

Teaming with Brandon Webb and Haren in an unbeatable rotation, Johnson leads the D-backs to their second World Series title — in six games over the Tigers — then devotes himself to a life of photography and amateur drumming.

I also have a hunch about the Tampa Bay Rays. Don't dare call them the Devil Rays, or risk a $1 fine from team president Matthew Silverman. True story: Fining people, especially media members, who don't honor their name change, is Silverman's light-hearted way of emphasizing Tampa's new era.

The Rays, it turns out, are this year's chic pick to end their legacy of mediocrity. Actually, that's a kind assessment; the old Devil Rays would have killed to reach the realm of mediocre. After averaging 97 defeats a season their first decade, they were truly abhorrent.

But now the Rays have a great nucleus of young talent, plus the imminent arrival of an instant superstar (or so we've been led to believe) in third baseman Evan Longoria. Never mind that Longoria was down to the minors at the outset of the season for the likely (but stoutly denied) purpose of making him wait an extra season to become a free agent. He'll be up in no time.

On the other hand, Scott Kazmir has an elbow strain, and the Rays are competing against the AL East juggernauts with a measly $42 million payroll. Great quote about Tampa Bay from an anonymous and skeptical GM in SI.com: "They're everybody's favorite team two months out of the year: March and September."

Darned right. And what's the problem with that? If you can't get excited about the Pirates and Rays in March, just check back in six months.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com