M's best bet to improve pitching is by a trade

The free-agency season in baseball was officially launched Tuesday, which no doubt brought joy and frivolity to Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva and all the other blessed pitchers poised for the payday of a lifetime.

Never mind that Lohse went 9-12 with a 4.62 earned-run average last year, or that Silva has allowed 475 hits in 382 innings the past two seasons.

They are live arms, or relatively so, and in today's pitching-starved but cash-flush market, that translates to a guaranteed bonanza.

Tuesday was the first day for teams to negotiate with free agents other than their own. That's the ceremonial start of a march to profligacy that will culminate next month in Nashville at the winter meetings, or as they're known in the industry, Borasapalooza.

I predict general managers will once again be traumatized — and probably claim to have been blindsided — by the fortunes thrown at what looks, on the surface, to be an unusually mediocre free-agent pitching class.

Our old pal Joel Pineiro has already signed a two-year, $13 million contract with St. Louis, an ominous sign for a team like the Mariners that is trying, yet again, to upgrade its rotation.

Oh, there are some intriguing names out there, as always. Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda has been compared favorably to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and will no doubt be a main target of the Mariners. Bartolo Colon, just two years removed from winning a Cy Young Award with the Los Angeles Angels, might be worth a gamble.

Out of a large clump of faded, flawed, old and/or broken-down arms — the likes of Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, Kris Benson, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings and Randy Wolf — might emerge a hidden gem. Or not.

But for the Mariners, and all other teams aiming to make a major pitching upgrade, all might not be lost. In a year of middling free agents, it's starting to look like the trade market could be where the real impact pitchers are going to be found.

The biggest prize, of course, is Minnesota's Johan Santana, the two-time Cy Young Award winner who is eligible for free agency after the season. The feeling of most executives after last week's general managers' meetings in Florida is that the Twins will eventually conclude they can't re-sign Santana, and make him available in trade.

"I think Santana will be moved for sure," Philadelphia GM Pat Gillick told USA Today last week.

Santana's availability would cause an industry-wide feeding frenzy. I've already advocated that the Mariners go all-out for Santana, and I still feel that way, but only if they get a negotiating window for a long-term deal. It's not worth mortgaging the future — and the Twins would almost certainly make Adam Jones the starting point of any deal — for a one-year rental. But land Santana for five years? Hey, mortgage away. Santana and Felix Hernandez atop any rotation is a championship-caliber combo.

Santana, however, is not likely to be the only big-name pitcher available. It appears many GMs, mindful that the insatiable demand for front-line pitching won't be met in free agency, are inclined to at least test the market on some young talent that normally would be deemed untouchable.

If they can leverage those pitchers into an offer that can't be refused — let's say, two top prospects and a major-league ready position player — then some of those guys might suddenly become touchable.

Some of the names being thrown around in the media last week at the GM meetings — and trade rumors this time of year must obviously be taken with a large grain of salt — are guaranteed to get the blood flowing.

A.J. Burnett. Ben Sheets. Dan Haren. Erik Bedard. Matt Garza. Tim Lincecum. Dontrelle Willis. Scott Kazmir.

There were even whispers that Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy could be had in the right blockbuster, but don't hold your breath. Certainly, it will be more plausible to obtain the likes of Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Joe Blanton, who are hardly sure things but might be better gambles than the sad-sack free agents.

On Tuesday, Mariners GM Bill Bavasi downplayed the notion that this year's potentially star-studded trade market for pitching is out of the ordinary.

"I think those kind of fishing expeditions take place every year," he said.

Maybe so. But the Mariners, whose starters had a 5.16 ERA last year and allowed a .294 average by their opponents, should get out their poles and start casting.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com