Forlorn Four: M's are in unselect company

During the World Series, Rockies manager Clint Hurdle painted a vivid picture of a city — Denver — consumed by baseball.

"My world, it's past sky-high," he said before the first game at Coors Field. "Everywhere I go, the people are on fire ... For me, as much as anything, it gives an entire generation of children a lifetime memory; a date and place to go back to and say, 'Remember when the World Series was here in '07?' "

That's an exhilarating experience that has eluded just four franchises in baseball, including the Mariners.

Oh, the Mariners did get a taste of living in a city obsessed by baseball, first in the "Refuse to Lose" season of 1995, which closely resembled the Rockies' 2007 season in all but the pennant, and again in the 116-win season of 2001.

Both years, however, ended tantalizingly short of the World Series, leaving the Mariners to remain on the ever-dwindling list of teams that have never reached the Fall Classic.

There's the Texas Rangers, born in 1961 as the expansion Washington Senators before moving to Arlington in 1972. At age 47, they are the oldest of the World Series wannabes.

There's the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who in 10 years of existence have finished last nine times and average 97 defeats per season.

And there's the Washington Nationals, born in 1969 as the Montreal Expos before moving to D.C. in 2005. Yes, Virginia and Maryland, there was a Washington Nationals team that won a World Series in 1924 and AL titles in 1925 and '33, but that was an entirely different franchise, one that later became known as the Washington Senators before moving to Minnesota and becoming the Twins in 1961.

Those are the Forlorn Four (though perhaps a spot should be made for the Chicago Cubs, who have gone 62 seasons — longer than any of them — since their last World Series appearance in 1945. But the Cubbies don't get in on technicalities. )

The Rockies' World Series appearance this year, on top of the Astros' in 2005, on top of the Angels' in 2002, on top of the Diamondbacks' in 2001, on top of the Marlins' in 1997, shows that it's possible to vacate this club.

So today's question is this: Who will be next? I posed that very query, by e-mail, to 20 top baseball executives (none of them associated with any of the four teams).

Promising anonymity, I asked them which team — the Mariners, Devil Rays, Rangers or Nationals — is best positioned to get to the World Series first.

I got 18 responses, and the results should encourage Mariners fans. By a wide margin, they felt the Mariners would be the next club to win their elusive first pennant. The Mariners got 10 votes, compared to four for Texas, two for Tampa Bay and two for Washington.

Many of the executives who voted for the Mariners pointed to their high payroll, the fact they were in contention for much of last season, and the fact they play in the only four-team division in baseball.

Said one, "They have the best personnel in a division that lends itself to competition more so than the AL or NL East."

Said another: "It's the Mariners for me. They are the closest. I think in the near future, the others should be in position to get there also. Pitching and injuries will be the factors."

And yet another: "One more starting pitcher, and Seattle is right there in '08."

One exec wrote, "Tough one. Has to be either Seattle or Texas, but if I had to pick I'd say Texas, but not for about four to five years. Their trades this year, if coupled with good development and supplementation through free agency, should have them positioned to be a contender in the future."

Many responses noted that Tampa Bay has had a tremendous influx of young talent. But others also noted that with the Rays' paltry payroll (the mid-$30 million range for next season), they simply will be unable to compete with the powerhouse Red Sox and Yankees.

Not all felt that way, however.

"Mark my words — the Devil Rays are about two years away from being a playoff contender," wrote one. "They might not win the division, but they could be a wild card, and if they get into the playoffs, they can get into the World Series."

The Nationals didn't get much love, but the two who picked them noted that GM Jim Bowden has been stockpiling young pitching and high draft choices. They also felt the new stadium opening next year would eventually give the Nats the resources to compete.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels got high marks for his stretch-drive trades this past season.

"I have no idea which of these teams is going to get there first," wrote one GM. "But I predict it will happen before 2011."

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com