Ten years ago, the Mariners sat precisely where they do today — holding the third pick in the amateur draft, hoping to use it to fortify a team that didn't seem to be in contention in the American League West.

After they make their selection on Tuesday, it may take years to see how wisely they chose.

But with the passage of time, it's possible to see how it worked out for the Mariners a decade ago — and to learn something about the foibles, temptations and frustrations of the draft.

The Angels picked first, under the guidance of Bob Fontaine Jr., the same man who will mastermind the Mariners' current draft. As they had already informed the Mariners they would, the Angels selected Darin Erstad, an outfielder for Nebraska who also punted for the Cornhuskers.

San Diego was on the clock next, and they went with a strapping high-school catcher from Pennsylvania named Ben Davis, who was being compared to Carlton Fisk and Dale Murphy.

That brought up the Mariners, who still had an array of talented players at their disposal, all of whom had been painstakingly scouted in the previous months:

• A fireballing prep phenom from Texas named Kerry Wood who was inspiring comparisons to Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens;

• Polished Cuban defector Ariel Prieto, a 20-something right-hander with impeccable international credentials and believed to be ready to step into a major-league rotation;

• A Tennessee quarterback named Todd Helton, who also played a little first base;

• Roy Halladay, a tall high-school right-hander from Golden, Colo., with dazzling stuff;

• A poised right-handed pitcher from Seton Hall with a world of stuff, Matt Morris;

• And an 18-year-old Puerto Rican outfielder by the name of Carlos Beltran.

Seattle mulled it all over and went with ... Jose Cruz Jr., a switch-hitting outfielder from Rice whose father had been a star with the Houston Astros. The word "bloodlines" was used a lot in the news conference that day.

Not a terrible pick, in light of some of the screaming top-of-the-draft failures that have been perpetrated by this, and virtually every other, organization. But not the impact player that one hopes for with the third overall pick.

"It probably wasn't a bad draft," said Roger Jongewaard, the Mariners' vice-president of scouting in 1995. "I've taken some guys that were conservative picks — [Jason] Varitek, Tino [Martinez] and Cruz. You almost knew they would play in the big leagues, but you didn't know how good they would be."

The well-regarded Jongewaard brought the team Ken Griffey Jr. in 1987 and Alex Rodriguez in 1993, both first overall picks.

But the draft pick that was still ringing in the minds of Mariners upper brass was pitcher Roger Salkeld, No. 3 overall in 1989 (four spots ahead of Frank Thomas), whose career had flamed out because of arm injuries. He won all of 10 games in the major leagues.

Jongewaard now works for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and he didn't hesitate when asked to look back at the '95 draft: "I look back on it saying we should have taken Kerry Wood. ... We couldn't pull the trigger. There was some pressure about high-school pitchers breaking down, and we decided it wasn't a good gamble with a pick that high."

Who made that call has become blurred over time. Jongewaard takes the bullet ("I make the ultimate decision") but the Mariners' Texas-based scout that year, Bill Young, remembers it differently.

"We were scared from Kerry Wood because of the Roger Salkeld situation," said Young, who now scouts for the White Sox. "Woody [Woodward, the Mariners' general manager] basically said, 'You're not taking another high-school pitcher.' ... Roger [Jongewaard] basically told me three weeks before the draft, 'No need to go back and watch him, because we're not going to take him.' "

Jongewaard wishes now he had listened to Young, whose Texas territory included both Wood and Cruz.

"Our scout liked Kerry Wood better than Jose Cruz," Jongewaard said. "He knew them better than anybody."

Young, in fact, still gets rhapsodic about Wood, who was taken with the next pick by the Cubs and whose career has indeed been sidetracked by injury — Tommy John surgery in 1999, and current shoulder problems that have him on the disabled list. But he also has had a 20-strikeout game, a 68-51 lifetime record, and still, at age 27, oozes with breakout potential.

"My feeling at the time was that I didn't think Jose Cruz was going to be an impact player you take with the third pick in the draft," Young said. "No one ever expected Kerry Wood to have arm problems. He dominated every game I saw, and I saw him at least eight starts.

"If this guy stays healthy, you're looking at a Roger Clemens-type pitcher."

Looking at some of the others that got away, Jongewaard said he flew to Puerto Rico to see Beltran, an eventual second-round pick by the Royals (after the Mariners passed on him a second time to take ... Shane Monahan). But Beltran's agent wouldn't let him participate in a special workout game.

"He was a first-round consideration guy," Beltran's agent said, 'If you guys haven't seen him by now ... ' "

As for Helton, the Mariners felt that he couldn't play any other position but first base, where they feared he would get stuck behind Martinez — who was traded after the season.

They also liked Halladay, a future Cy Young winner with Toronto, Morris, a 22-game winner in 2001 with St. Louis, and Jenkins, who hit 34 homers in 2000 with Milwaukee.

But not as much as Cruz Jr., who made it to the majors in 1997, only to be traded on July 31 for Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric. Ten years later, Cruz is with his fifth team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, peaking in 2001 with a 30-30 year for the Blue Jays — 34 homers and 32 stolen bases.

On draft day, Jongewaard unveiled a slogan in anticipation of the Mariners' outfield of the future of Cruz, Griffey and Jay Buhner: "Junior, Junior and the Bone, and you can't go wrong."

Ten years later, we know it didn't work out quite that way.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com