New King County executive and Seattle mayor will confront hard economic realities

Consider it a reset amid the reset. King County and Seattle will get new top elected officials this year as the economy goes through fundamental changes. It's a great political story. At the finish line, hard reality awaits the victors.

How these new leaders respond will be consequential, even though the region's economy has often been so robust and its leadership bench so deep that it didn't depend, like many places, on turnaround politicians.

But the economic deck is being reshuffled, slowly in some cases and very rapidly in others. Whoever becomes mayor or county executive will confront certain realities, whether he or she wants to or not.

Here are a few:

• It's a world of metros: Some rivalry between Seattle and its suburbs is inevitable. But conflict between them is not only silly, it's self-destructive.

As companies and industries increasingly transcend national borders, the competitive units of the world economy are metropolitan areas. According to the Brookings Institution, they produce 86 percent of America's jobs. Washington's metros pump out 94 percent of the state's GDP.

For all its periodic ennui, Seattle is a world-class metro. Maintaining this strength will require enhanced cooperation among officials and policies and strategies that match this reality. The real competition is with Shanghai, São Paulo, London, on and on. It's not between Seattle and the Eastside. Balkanized metros are economic underperformers.

• Managing public needs and resources: Look at the most successful regions of the world and you find that government must perform some essential functions very well. And these include some advanced economic roles, not just law enforcement and filling potholes (although failing to plow snow is always a mayor's sure shortcut to the unemployment line). The stakes for carrying out these roles are rising in a resetting world.

King County and Seattle face serious and even structural deficits, both because of a down economy and a broken revenue system. But any official who thinks he or she can succeed merely by being the hard-nosed accountant in chief is in for a rude shock.

For one thing, the need for government social services rises during a recession. So the oft-used line about government needing to "tighten its belt like everyone else" means pain for real people who need assistance. In addition, infrastructure investments in areas such as transportation can be delayed or killed, with consequences for private-sector productivity in the future.

• Diversity is imperative: Seattle is unusual in that it has managed to keep both vibrant high-tech, biotech and other knowledge sectors and blue-collar manufacturing. It needs all this and in as wide a range as possible.

Here top officials must evaluate policies, regulations, taxes, services and government responsiveness to make sure the best environment exists to keep this diverse set of industries. It means being an advocate for them to get the capital and resources they need to be competitive internationally. Growing new industries will be wonderful. But in the difficult years ahead, business retention will become more important than ever.

• A new international order: The federal National Intelligence Council has noted a "global shift in relative wealth and economic power without precedent in modern history." China is growing again and both it and India are leading Asia to become the center of gravity of the 21st century economy. America, meanwhile, has been severely wounded by the crash and the debt and focus on financial manias that led to it.

This isn't all bad news for a region that looks to Asia as a trading partner and a two-way talent pipeline. But metro Seattle will have to be more focused than ever on global partnerships and building the infrastructure to stay competitive on trade and in maintaining high quality of life to attract the most talented workers. Attracting foreign direct investment is yet another opportunity.

• Standing pat is suicide: Compared with most U.S. metros, Seattle has a genius for reinvention. But it can't assume this is in the genes, for all the brilliant entrepreneurs and hot young brainiacs that choose to live here.

As the drama over South Carolina's courtship of Boeing shows, hungry competitors want what we have. In addition, the region's relative wealth can't paper over some serious problems, such as high dropout rates among disadvantaged students. This is talent we can't afford to waste.

Nor can we assume the next Bill Gates will just happen to be from here and want to come home. The region's top officials must help the push to develop promising new industries here that can capitalize on the world that's emerging. China has declared renewable energy a strategic industry to be protected. Europe dominates solar power and the building of high-speed trains. Memo to Seattle and King County: Pay attention.

The future is discontinuity. The next 30 years won't be a replay of the past 30. Will we continue to prosper here? That's not all on the shoulders of the next Seattle mayor or King County executive. Indeed, a tenure of "do no harm" is better than nothing. But better than nothing won't be enough.

Sure you still want the job? Joe? Mike? Dow? Susan?

You may reach Jon Talton at jtalton@seattletimes.com