Mariners not ready to make playoffs

John McLaren repeats himself more than an aerobics instructor. Decades of stories and ideas are jumbled in his brain like shoes in a messy closet, and he just reaches in there and pulls out whatever comes closest to matching the moment.

Throughout spring training, he harped on the strange statistics compiled during the Mariners' anomalistic 2007 season. The manager mentioned the four losing streaks of at least seven games and the run differential (opponents outscored his team by 19 runs). The numbers made him wonder how in the name of Griffey the Mariners won 88 games.

"Sometimes, the numbers don't add up," he said again and again.

This season, the numbers will add up. And that's the problem.

The Mariners were a freak winner last season. They won't need to disobey logic anymore, but they might only improve enough to win 88 games the proper way.

Could you handle that? Could you still consider it progressive?

The giddy expectations for this team are a little out of control. Let's see Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez for at least two months of real games before we declare them the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball. Let's see if Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt have matured before we declare this team ready to play a consistent 162 games. Let's see if Richie Sexson cured his bat apnea before we daydream about the World Series.

Before the Bedard trade, which began this rampant fantasizing, general manager Bill Bavasi alluded to how difficult it can be to finish a rebuilding project. Beginning with their free fall in 2004, the Mariners endured three consecutive last-place finishes in the AL West, and finally, they showed tangible progress last season. But there is much ground between pretty good and very good.

"It's not as tough to go from where we were in 2004 to where we were last year as it's going to be to go from 88 wins to where we want to be," Bavasi said back then.

Even with Bedard, the challenge remains mighty. The Mariners are still an unfinished ballclub. Their rotation is set, which is always the primary objective, and so the Mariners are unquestionably traveling the right trail. Nevertheless, they continue to gallop several lengths behind the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West.

Unless the Angels' preseason injury bug lingers all season, the Mariners look like a team that will be competing for the wild-card playoff spot. And here's guessing the wild card will go again to the loser of the annual Yankees-Red Sox scrum.

Of course, predictions have no bearing on the actual games. So, yes, the Mariners could win big this season, but they must find adequate answers to their many concerns. Despite the confident talk during spring training, I think this team still is merely hoping it can win enough this season.

The Mariners have four potential trouble spots: first base (if Sexson doesn't return to form), second base (if Lopez plays unfocused again), right field and setup man.

The latter two could be the most hazardous. They show what the Mariners lost in order to acquire Bedard from Baltimore.

Adam Jones, an incredible raw talent, would have started in right field. George Sherrill, a proven reliever, would have been the lefty setup man. The Mariners gave up two quality pieces, along with three prospects, to get the top-of-the-rotation starter they coveted.

It was a trade Bavasi felt he had to make, even though the package was more luxurious than what the New York Mets gave Minnesota for Johan Santana. It was a solid deal. As I've stated before, if I were the Mariners GM, I would've kept Jones. But I don't think the Mariners are doomed because Bavasi went for the big one. It's just an ideological difference.

The slow-developing trade left the Mariners without sufficient countermoves, however. So they're hoping that Brad Wilkerson, a 30-year-old already on the downside of his career, can replace Jose Guillen in right field. Not likely to happen. And truth be told, young Jones probably wouldn't have produced the 99 RBI that Guillen did a year ago, but he was a better option and packed loads of potential.

Losing Sherrill will hurt, too. Eric O'Flaherty steps into that role now, and he has had a solid spring. Right-hander Brandon Morrow is the other likely setup man option. How will two 23-year-olds handle the pressure of getting the ball to J.J. Putz? Last season, a young Mariners bullpen wilted under that pressure. Fatigue from early-season overuse was a factor, but they were overmatched. Now, the kids in the bullpen have even more responsibility.

The Mariners are better, but they're not complete. They are either one offseason away or, at best, one shrewd midseason trade away. In terms of personnel, they've transitioned into being a pitching-first team, but that also means the defense must be that much better and the hitters that much craftier.

The Mariners are close to having the talent of a big-time winner. They have the desire. But they have yet to exhibit the discipline of a team that knows how to thrive when it matters most.

They look like a team that, once again, remains one year away.

Jerry Brewer: 206-464-2277 or jbrewer@seattletimes.com. For his Extra Points blog, visit seattletimes.com/sports