Keeping Jones is Mariners' best move — for now and the future

When the world ends, all that will survive are cockroaches, Celine Dion and trade rumors involving left-handed power pitchers.

The speculation won't stop. There's the Johan Santana Sweepstakes, and on the undercard, where the Mariners sit anxiously, there's the Erik Bedard Auction. Days of discussion have turned into weeks, weeks into months, and here we are, waiting. Still.

Somewhere in purgatory, there's probably a seamhead reporting that the talks will drag into the regular season.

The Mariners should bow out while they can. Three words to live by: Keep Adam Jones.

General manager Bill Bavasi should tattoo "K.A.J." on his hand so that whenever he picks up the phone to talk trades, he resists temptation.

Keep Adam Jones.

He is the Mariners' future, and he just might be awfully good in the present. At last, he is primed to get his chance this season as the team's starting right fielder — unless the Mariners sacrifice him, along with several other prospects, for a chance at short-term success.

Baltimore doesn't want to include Bedard in a trade. The Orioles want to include him in a heist. They want to flash their shiny lefty as a distraction and then fleece a team starved for pitching. They're reportedly asking for three to five significant young players for Bedard, who is coming off an amazing 2007 season.

He's not worth such an expense, which is why the Orioles can't make a deal. The Mariners have made what they believe is a solid offer and are standing pat. On the other end, the Orioles are holding out, hoping to entice desperation. A highbrow game of chicken has commenced.

Even if Seattle could lower Baltimore's asking price, a deal can't be made without including Jones. He's the reason the teams are even talking. The Orioles need a center fielder with star potential, and Jones fits the bill. But the Mariners should ask themselves one question.

Why disrupt the future if it doesn't guarantee us a playoff berth?

For the Mariners, this potential decision is more philosophical than anything. Once again, they must contemplate who they want to be, how quickly and at what price. After all these years of struggles, of piecing together a roster while waiting for young players to develop, of steady but unsatisfying progress in the win column, it would seem foolish not to follow through with the plan.

Bedard, who turns 29 in March, is a really good pitcher with many years left in him. The thought of putting him with Felix Hernandez in the front of the starting rotation is intriguing. The thought of a complete rotation without a glaring weak link on the back end is wonderful.

The problem? The offense would take a hit. And more important, without Jones, the defense in the outfield, which aids those pitchers, would take a hit, too.

The Mariners survived some of their starting-pitching woes last season by turning to an offense that generally produced. It was an interesting lineup that required a little production from everyone because it lacked a dominant power hitter and run producer. But the offense has already lost right fielder Jose Guillen, a huge key last season, to Kansas City in free agency.

The danger now is that the Mariners will be back to depending too much on Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who can't carry an offense and wilt under that pressure. If Jones is around, he's a nice wild card who could soften the loss of Guillen's production.

Even if Jones has an average season at the plate, he's still an athletic wonder capable of making the defense better. Put Jones in right with Ichiro in center, and they'll not only be good at their spots, but maybe they can cheat a little to mask Raul Ibanez's problems in left field.

Jones is the top Mariners prospect who has yet to play a full major-league season. The club didn't get a good enough look at him last season because it was chasing a playoff berth. In the end, the Mariners failed to make the postseason, so it felt like a double loss.

Bavasi sits in the odd spot of needing both to win now and have patience. In this case, patience must trump all else.

If this were a trade involving Santana, a two-time Cy Young winner, then Jones and every other prospect Minnesota wanted should be available. But the Mariners can't convince the Twins to take a closer look at that trade.

While on the rise, Bedard isn't Santana and never will be. We're still not certain who Jones is — Griffey-esque? Or overhyped youngster? — but the franchise has been selling his promise for so long that it would be unfortunate if Jones became a star elsewhere.

This hot stove just won't cool, but the Mariners should ignore it.

To revise an old saying about wheelin' and dealin': Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don't make, even if you have to discuss it over and over and over.

Jerry Brewer: 206-464-2277 or jbrewer@seattletimes.com