Petraeus' strategy faces Senate scrutiny

WASHINGTON -- This is not the way Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, was expected to reappear before Congress.

Violence in Iraq recently had dropped to a nearly three-year low. The once-intransigent Iraqi Parliament had passed some key pieces of legislation. Only five U.S. service members had been killed since October in Anbar province, a fraction of the toll a year ago.

But that was before the offensive that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched in the southern port city of Basra and in Baghdad two weeks ago. Instead of ridding the city of rogue Shiite Muslim militias, the operation exposed the frailty of the U.S.-trained Iraqi military, emboldened rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his fighters and showcased Iran's powerful influence on Iraq's security and politics.

As if to highlight the point, fighting erupted again in Baghdad's Shiite Sadr City neighborhood Sunday, increasingly drawing U.S. troops into the conflict. Three U.S. soldiers were killed Monday in separate attacks in the capital, the U.S. military said. More than 30 Iraqis have died in fighting since Sunday.

Today, Petraeus will have to explain to legislators why Washington didn't know about the U.S.-backed Iraqi government's offensive well in advance, and whether the drop in violence that followed the dispatch of additional U.S. forces to Iraq may have been temporary.

"Petraeus has to show that the effect of the surge has legs, momentum and direction," said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, are to appear before the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees to give congressionally mandated testimony about the U.S. strategy in Iraq.

Top Pentagon officials have offered a preview of the testimony, saying the security situation is too precarious for any major shift.

Petraeus, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have warned that violence could further escalate.

On Capitol Hill, key legislators acknowledged that the U.S. troop buildup has reduced violence and created some breathing room for the Iraqis to govern, but they said Iraq's nascent government had failed to lead.

For the military, the question is how to minimize what top officers said is an enormous strain on its equipment, training and reserves. Gen. George Casey, the Army chief of staff, has said that keeping 15 combat brigades in Iraq would further stretch an already stressed Army.

The Bush administration is planning to reduce combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan to 12 months from 15 months, beginning this summer.

"The Iraqis have all kinds of time. The U.S. military is running out of time," said a senior Pentagon official who requested anonymity.