Supply of surgeons shrinks, UW study finds

A potentially "severe shortage" of general surgeons is looming in the United States — leaving fewer doctors to repair hernias, operate on accident victims and carry out other common procedures, a University of Washington study concludes.

Researchers charted a nearly 26 percent drop in the ratio of general surgeons to patients since 1981, decreasing from 7.68 per 100,000 Americans to 5.69 by 2005.

The timing is lousy. General surgeons are losing ranks while baby boomers are needing their skills for things ranging from gallbladder removals to cancer operations.

The trend is part of a shift in medicine from general to narrow fields, with medical students' choices shaped by a variety of lifestyle and money issues.

Young doctors put a higher value on their personal lives, making fields that require frequent and unpredictable hospital duties less attractive, said Dr. Dana Lynge, a general surgeon and lead author of the study from the UW. In addition, he said, many students leave medical training with a "mountain of debt" in school loans. By necessity, they are looking for careers that will help them get out of the hole. The combination of less-demanding fields and more lucrative payoffs draws students away from general surgery.

"If you're a plastic surgeon, there aren't a lot of emergencies and you're paid up front," Lynge said. "You're not likely to be up all night working."

Published in the Archives of Surgery, the analysis counted a drop from 17,394 general surgeons in 1981 to 16,662 by 2005. During that same time period, the U.S. population grew by 66 million.

It also documented a rise in general surgeons older than 50, which means more current doctors will be reaching retirement age even as fewer young doctors enter the field. There's no way to predict how the crunch will play out.