This isn't your grandfather's retirement

No generation in history will affect our nation's future more than the baby boomers — all 78 million of those born between 1946 and 1964. It's hard even for me to fathom, and I've been writing about it for years.

Thanks to this group's gargantuan size (a quarter of our population), this moving bulge of bodies, sandwiched between much smaller age groups, is about to change the face of retirement forever.

The basic facts: In 2000, Americans 65 or older accounted for 12 percent of the population. In 2030, that figure will climb to nearly 20 percent. Yet in 2075, when every boomer is dead, people 65 or older will be 23 percent of the population. The numbers will go up, not down.

What we're about to experience is a permanent transformation in the age structure of America, according to Peter G. Peterson, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and one of my favorite social critics. (He's also the author of "Running on Empty," Farrar, Straus and Giroux, $24.)

The shift is the result of two immutable forces that have been going on for decades and will continue: declining mortality and declining fertility.

This "demographic tsunami" has no precedent.

There's a litany of institutions and supports that will soon be overwhelmed — Social Security, Medicare, assisted living, our doctors' offices — yet the issue is barely on the public's radar.

But I worry about something else: Who's going to work at our stores, offices, nonprofits, restaurants and schools? Who's going to drive the buses, teach our kids or, for pete's sake, write our newspaper columns?

The answers aren't yet clear, and the forecast remains mixed:

We're living longer, healthier lives. When Social Security chose age 65 as the official retirement age in 1935, the average life expectancy was only 63.

Today, boomers who make it to age 60 are likely to live to 83. Not only is this the healthiest generation to retire, but 75 to 80 percent will be healthy enough to work well into their 70s, some into their 80s.

Yet we lack retirement savings. The boomers have been notoriously poor savers, and some never had jobs that allowed them to save.

Couple this with rapidly disappearing or less-secure pensions and health benefits, and it's clear why 60 percent of employees age 60-65 told a MetLife study last year that "needing income to live on" was their No. 1 reason to work.

Additional risks that are possible, if not probable are cuts in Social Security and Medicare benefits due to inadequate government funding.

We have new opportunities to do meaningful work. With a decline in younger workers, the doors to new or reinvented careers are beginning to open for boomers in their last half of life. Coming in the nick of time, this trend responds to significant numbers of boomers who say they want paid or volunteer jobs that offer them the chance to do meaningful work — jobs that serve society in some way.

To compete for the best workers, corporations and nonprofits will be forced to develop alternatives to the standard 9-to-5 workdays and job descriptions. Part-time jobs, seasonal work, job-sharing, social entrepreneurism and other innovations are on the horizon to attract the "let me be me" generation.

None of this will be easy. In fact, writes William C. Byham in his book, "70: The New 50" (DDI Press, 2006; $30), we're entering the beginning of a "high anxiety" era of retirement.

Workers will have to decide for themselves when to retire, lacking rules or a pension setting the date. They'll have bosses their grandkids' ages. They may start their own business or try their hand at several different career moves in their 60s and 70s — and not like the stress. Some will want more flexibility than a company can offer.

Companies will be required to adopt a whole new way of thinking, as well — figuring out what older employees really want and trying to stay flexible, adapting the work environment to older workers, handling deteriorating performance, training younger managers of older workers, avoiding lawsuits — the list is long but interesting, and new.

This is a how-to book for nonprofit and business managers, but people looking to set up their careers in late life could learn a lot from it, too.

Next week: Two more books from the employees' perspective that will give you a jump-start on entering this new era.

Liz Taylor's column runs Mondays in Northwest Life. With 30 years experience in the field, she writes and lectures on a host of aging topics. E-mail her at growingolder@seattletimes.com or write to P.O. Box 11601, Bainbridge Island, WA 98110. You can see all of her columns at www.seattletimes.com/growingolder.