It's hard to predict how a wine will age

One of the enduring reference points for gauging a wine's quality and value is its estimated ageability. Estimated is the operative word here!

The leading wine-scoring newsletters and magazines frequently issue declarations such as, "Forget it for 5 to 6 years, then drink over the following 2 to 3 decades." Does anybody pay attention to such soothsaying? I hope not. The truth is that measuring the ageworthiness of a wine can only happen in retrospect, not future-spect. When you taste a 10- or 20- or 30-year-old cabernet, you have the evidence right in front of you. How does the wine look (cloudy, clear; brown or mahogany)? What do you smell and taste, and do those flavors seem well-integrated? Does the wine offer more complexity than it did in its youth, or less?

Uttering pronouncements such as, "It should drink nicely for 15 or so years" makes the author sound knowledgeable and important, and has no downside risk. Who is going to hold that writer accountable in, say, 15 years?

I am frequently asked by readers to offer such aging estimates and to venture advice on when to drink a particular wine. The answer, of course, is, "How about right now?" Sooner rather than later. Better a year early than a day late, etc.

The fetish for assigning exceptional value to aging wines harks back to the days of the British Empire, when rotund, cigar-smoking gentlemen purchased hard-as-nails Bordeaux wines by the cask, had them bottled and maintained cellars for decades, often with the intent of passing them down to their heirs.

Today's wines are made, with rare exceptions, quite differently. Red wines especially are far riper, sweeter and generally oakier than ever. They have been put through a malolactic (secondary) fermentation (to soften the acids). A variety of other palate-softening, flavor-enhancing, fruit-forwarding tricks is often applied.

Does this mean you should never cellar a wine, or that modern wines cannot evolve? Of course not. Many of the classic European reds can still age well, and some New World wines, when properly balanced to begin with, can also improve over some years. If you are purchasing a certain wine with the intention to see how it ages, I suggest you buy at least four, preferably six, bottles.

Drink the first one immediately, and make good mental notes on its condition. Estimate, according to your own taste and knowledge, how long you want to wait to drink the last — not the next — bottle. Say you've bought six bottles and you want to drink them over the next decade. You've got five left. So drink the second bottle in two years, and keep reworking the equation until you've reached the last bottle. Odds are, it will still be delicious.

Can we still ascribe special value to ageworthy wines? Yes, in that a wine must have structure and balance in order to last over the years. If it actually improves, it marks itself as one of the rare wines of the world because only the tiniest percentage of what is produced will actually improve over decades.

In recent tastings I was able to revisit 15 vintages of Hedges Red Mountain Reserve (back to 1987) and an equal number of Soos Creek Cabernets (back to 1989). My impressions were remarkably similar. Several of these wines were made primarily from Ciel du Cheval grapes, which provided an interesting basis for comparison. All (except for one or two corked bottles) were still in good drinking condition.

Among the Hedges, I especially liked the 1993, 1997 and 1999 Red Mountain Reserves. The standouts among the Soos Creek Cabernets, interestingly enough, were the 1997 Columbia Valley Cabernet Sauvignon, the 1999 Columbia Valley Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon and the 2001 Artist Series #1.

It's not really surprising that the '97 and '99 vintage wines showed extremely well in both instances; both are great vintages now reaching their peak. Some comparative notes:

Hedges 1997 Red Mountain Reserve: Lovely nose, baking spices, currant, a little bit of leather, wonderfully complex and varied. Flavors are at the perfect balance, prune and smoke, tar and brown sugar, complex and fascinating.

Soos Creek 1997 Columbia Valley Cabernet Sauvignon: Tight focus, dense and compact flavors still, mixing red fruits, dried herb and sweet baking spice. Lots of depth and detail. First-rate winemaking.

Hedges 1999 Red Mountain Reserve: Scents of plum, berry and currant. It's still a big, tight and tannic wine with long-term aging potential.

Soos Creek 1999 Columbia Valley Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon: Dark and dense, with nuances of iron filings, smoke, black currant and other black fruits. A deep and nicely structured wine with much life still ahead.

Conclusions? For Washington cabernet-based wines that have the polish and structure to age, a decade is optimal if you want to retain some of the youthful fruit. However, these wines can chug along just fine for another decade at least.

Finding the wines

Unless noted, all Wine Adviser recommendations are currently available, though vintages may sometimes differ. All wine shops and most groceries have a wine specialist on staff, and if they do not have the wine in stock, they can order it for you from the local distributor.

Paul Gregutt is the author of "Washington Wines and Wineries The Essential Guide." His column appears weekly in the Wine section. He can be reached by e-mail at wine@seattletimes.com.