Oscars: perhaps, perhaps, perhaps ...

Just days from Tuesday morning's announcement of the Academy Award nominations, the questions are piling up like unread scripts in an agent's office: Will Julie Christie, who's been nominated for an Oscar in the '60s, '70s and '90s, add another decade for "Away from Her"? Will the Academy be impressed by Johnny Depp's singing in "Sweeney Todd"? Will "Atonement" be this year's "The English Patient"? Will the gore in "No Country for Old Men" affect its chances for Academy votes? And, the big question ... will the Oscars go the way of the Golden Globes this year, and cancel the telecast due to the ongoing WGA strike?

It's too soon to answer the last question; there's still plenty of hope that the strike might be settled (or some other arrangement made) before the Oscar ceremony on Feb. 24. In the meantime, let's take a look at some of the names we might hear called at that early-morning press conference on Tuesday. As in recent years, there's no blockbuster movie expected to dominate the nominations (remember when you could count on a "Lord of the Rings" presence to fill out your Oscar ballot?); instead, a number of well-reviewed smaller films are vying for the 6,000+ Academy members' votes. Below, a survey of the major categories, plus a wild-card vote from me in each one.

Best Picture

Definite: Joel and Ethan Coen's masterfully blood-soaked "No Country for Old Men" should be a shoo-in here; it's won numerous year-end awards, and the Academy isn't afraid of violent films (see last year's best picture winner, "The Departed," if you doubt it). Tony Gilroy's smart "Michael Clayton" should turn up here, as should Paul Thomas Anderson's highly original "There Will Be Blood" (though the latter, with its deliberate pace, might not register well on the DVD screeners watched by many members).

Maybe: Joe Wright's elegant "Atonement" looked like the kind of literate period piece that would attract Oscars, but it had been getting little attention in year-end awards — until its Golden Globes win last week bounced it back into the spotlight. Julian Schnabel's acclaimed "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (a French-language film, though not submitted by France in the foreign-language category) might make the top list, as might Tim Burton's gory musical "Sweeney Todd" (also a Globes winner) and/or Sean Penn's Alaskan adventure "Into the Wild." More longshot possibilities: "Charlie Wilson's War," "The Savages."

Wild-card: David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises" got a little lost in the shuffle this fall, but it's an immensely satisfying and artful character study masquerading as a thriller, with an ending that's unexpectedly moving. Set in the dark streets of London amidst a Russian mafia family, it looks at the legacy of evil — and of goodness.

Best director

Definite: The Directors Guild of America awards are usually a pretty close matchup with this category, so here they are: Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"; the Coens, "No Country for Old Men"; Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"; Penn, "Into the Wild"; Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." (An interesting note: With the exception of Joel Coen, none of these filmmakers has ever been previously nominated for a DGA award — or, for that matter, a directing Oscar.)

Maybe: If somebody breaks the DGA mold, it's most likely to be Wright ("Atonement"), Burton ("Sweeney Todd"), Tamara Jenkins ("The Savages") or Ben Affleck (who made a terrific feature debut directing debut with "Gone Baby Gone").

Wild-card: David Fincher's "Zodiac" seemed like it couldn't possibly work: a lengthy examination of an unsolved series of real-life murders in the San Francisco Bay Area, with no real ending. But Fincher turned the movie into a masterpiece of pacing and suspense, a tale of expertly drawn-out obsession that leaves its audience wanting more.

Best actor

Definite: The Academy loves George Clooney, and he'll be recognized here for "Michael Clayton"; likewise, past winner Daniel Day-Lewis is a sure bet for "There Will Be Blood." Frank Langella, a veteran greatly respected by fellow actors, will likely appear here for his moving portrait of an aging novelist in "Starting Out in the Evening."

Maybe: Not everyone loved "Sweeney Todd," but it seems unlikely that Johnny Depp will be denied his third career nomination for his portrayal of the singing, murderous barber of Fleet Street. If enough voters see "Talk to Me," Don Cheadle might turn up here, as might Mathieu Amalric for his remarkable (and nearly immobile) performance in "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." Philip Seymour Hoffman is in the unusual position of competing with himself; his two equally fine lead performances in "The Savages" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" could cancel each other out. Other possibilities in this very crowded category: Tom Hanks, "Charlie Wilson's War"; Russell Crowe, "3:10 to Yuma"; James McAvoy, "Atonement"; Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"; Denzel Washington, "American Gangster"; Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"; Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl."

Wild-card: Still in his 20s, Joseph Gordon-Levitt is quietly building up a fine body of work — and his extraordinarily subtle performance in "The Lookout" this year shows that this young actor deserves to be in the big leagues. As a vulnerable, brain-damaged young man lured into a heist job, Gordon-Levitt shows us his character's struggle to remember what he once was; on his face, we see the palest hints of memory quietly draining away.

Best actress

Definite: Julie Christie, so beautifully fragile as an Alzheimer's patient in "Away from Her," will surely pick up her fourth career nomination this week; French actress Marion Cotillard, who transformed herself into Edith Piaf in "La Vie en Rose," should collect her first. (Both Christie and Cotillard were winners at the Golden Globes last week.) And if the Academy has a heart, it'll surely succumb to the charms of Amy Adams as the perfect fairy-tale princess (and screwball comedienne) in "Enchanted."

Maybe: Previous winners Cate Blanchett ("Elizabeth: The Golden Age"), Jodie Foster ("The Brave One") and Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") might turn up here, but all have a problem in common: Their films didn't find an audience. Ellen Page, currently charming audiences in "Juno," might get her first nomination; Laura Linney ("The Savages"), an Academy favorite, could see her third. Other possibilities: Keira Knightley ("Atonement"), Tabu ("The Namesake"), Nikki Blonsky (the year's happiest debut, in "Hairspray").

Wild-card: Yes, it's true: Helena Bonham Carter, as the amoral baker Mrs. Lovett in "Sweeney Todd," doesn't sing as well as the rest of the cast. But put aside memories of Angela Lansbury (who played the role on Broadway to great acclaim — and who is an entirely different kind of performer), and watch how Bonham Carter makes the role completely her own. It's a performance that's in turns briskly funny and delicately vulnerable; her soulful rendition of "Not While I'm Around" will break your heart.

Best supporting actor

Definite: Tom Wilkinson, so blusteringly good in "Michael Clayton," will likely hear his name called Tuesday, as will Javier Bardem, the year's creepiest villain, in "No Country for Old Men." Casey Affleck, scooping up numerous year-end critics' awards for his work in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," seems a likely nominee as well.

Maybe: Veteran actor Hal Holbrook — now in his 80s and never nominated for an Oscar — should be the sentimental choice for his brief but affecting work in "Into the Wild." (He's got competition, though, from a couple of other old-timers: Philip Bosco in "The Savages" and Max von Sydow in "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.") Paul Dano's work in an eerie double role in "There Will Be Blood" could be recognized here, as might J.K. Simmons' gruffly affectionate dad in "Juno," Alan Rickman's sneering villain in "Sweeney Todd," Ethan Hawke's hapless would-be con in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" or Philip Seymour Hoffman's wry CIA agent in "Charlie Wilson's War."

Wild-card: Most of us know Steve Zahn as a comedian, which made his work as a fragile, malnourished POW in Werner Herzog's "Rescue Dawn" all the more astounding; he seems to fade away before our eyes. Long held captive in a jungle prison, he's terrified and beaten-down, but Zahn gives him the tiniest note of hope. A remarkable performance, too quickly forgotten.

Best supporting actress

Definite: Amy Ryan, the year's biggest "discovery" (in fact, she's been around for years), will surely turn up here for her frighteningly chilly work as a neglectful mother in "Gone Baby Gone." Cate Blanchett, a previous winner in this category ("The Aviator"), will be recognized for her gender-bending role as a Bob Dylan-like figure in "I'm Not There," and the always magnificent Tilda Swinton — who has, amazingly, never been nominated for an Oscar — should be named for "Michael Clayton."

Maybe: Kids often turn up in this category (Abigail Breslin did, just last year), and 13-year-old Saoirse Ronan well deserves a spot for her uncannily focused work in "Atonement." (FYI: It's pronounced "sear-sha." You're welcome.) Catherine Keener brought warmth and character to "Into the Wild" with her small role; likewise Ruby Dee in "American Gangster." Other possibilities: Julia Roberts in "Charlie Wilson's War," Imelda Staunton in "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," Marisa Tomei in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Wild-card: Emily Mortimer, in "Lars and the Real Girl," plays a character so impossibly sweet, she must have seemed unreal on the page — but Mortimer brought her to life with a plaintive voice and a steady, loving gaze. As the supportive sister-in-law of a young man in love with a life-size doll, she anchors the film, creating along the way an unforgettable portrait of kindness.

Elsewhere, expect to hear screenplay nods for "No Country for Old Men" (adaptation) and "Juno" (original), costume design recognition for "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd," a best song nomination for hometown boy Eddie Vedder (who wrote the song "Guaranteed" from "Into the Wild") and a lot of speculation about how the strike will affect the Oscars broadcast — or, conversely, what Tilda Swinton will wear. Stay tuned — the Oscar season has begun.

Moira Macdonald: 206-464-2725 or mmacdonald@seattletimes.com