Who'll get those Tony statuettes?

Broadway honors its own on Sunday, with the nationally televised Tony Awards ceremony broadcast on CBS.

Less watched than the Grammys, less fashion-crazed than the Oscars and less of a bore (usually) than most other celebrity-award orgies, the Tony honors can snap shut a losing show practically overnight, or extend a winner's run by months or even years.

So here are my projections for the major Tony categories:

Best play

Nominated: "The Coast of Utopia," "Frost/Nixon," "The Little Dog Laughed," "Radio Golf."

Should win: "Radio Golf" by August Wilson, or "The Coast of Utopia" by Tom Stoppard.

Will win: "The Coast of Utopia," for sheer ambition (it's nine hours long) and Stoppard lust. Broadway also loves the late Wilson, but the critical reception for "Radio Golf" was mixed.

Best musical

Nominated: "Curtains," "Grey Gardens," "Mary Poppins," "Spring Awakening."

Should win: "Spring Awakening."

Will win: A toss-up between the equally inventive "Grey Gardens" and "Spring Awakening."

Best revival of a musical

Nominated: "The Apple Tree," "A Chorus Line," "Company," "110 in the Shade."

Should win: "Company."

Will win: "Company." Because this Stephen Sondheim show was staged in a stripped-down fashion quite different from the original, in a blah season for revivals.

Best revival of a play

Nominated: "Inherit the Wind," "Journey's End," "Talk Radio," "Translations."

Should win: "Journey's End."

Will win: "Journey's End," an acclaimed staging of a potent World War I drama that has struggled to find an audience.

Best performance by a leading actor (play)

Nominated: Boyd Gaines ("Journey's End"); Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"); Brian F. O'Byrne ("Coast of Utopia"); Christopher Plummer ("Inherit the Wind"); Liev Schreiber ("Talk Radio").

Should win: Don't make me choose! The most competitive category, with five outstanding actors.

Will win: Plummer, an elderly star who's aced much tougher roles but is a sentimental favorite.

Best performance by a leading actress (play)

Nominated: Eve Best ("Moon for the Misbegotten"); Swoosie Kurtz ("Heartbreak House"); Angela Lansbury ("Deuce"); Vanessa Redgrave ("The Year of Magical Thinking"); Julie White ("The Little Dog Laughed").

Should win: Are you kidding? Redgrave in a solo performance of a Joan Didion work?

Will win: Redgrave, an acting genius whose leftist politics don't bother Broadway.

Best performance by a leading actor (musical)

Nominated: Michael Cerveris ("LoveMusik"); Raul Esparza ("Company"); Jonathan Groff ("Spring Awakening"); Gavin Lee ("Mary Poppins"); David Hyde Pierce ("Curtains").

Should win: Groff, an exciting new talent in a field of excellent veterans.

Will win: Esparza or Cerveris.

Best performance by a leading actress (musical)

Nominated: Laura Bell Bundy ("Legally Blonde"); Christine Ebersole ("Grey Gardens"); Audra McDonald ("110 in the Shade"); Debra Monk ("Curtains"); Donna Murphy ("LoveMusik").

Should win: Ebersole, whose double turn as two whacked-out relations in the eccentric Beale clan is an absolute stunner.

Will win: Ebersole.

Misha Berson: mberson@seattletimes.com