Could Blake win bigger by losing tonight?

Pop singer Clay Aiken has sold more than 4 million albums in the U.S.

Soul singer Jennifer Hudson won a best supporting actress Oscar for "Dreamgirls."

Rock singer/guitarist Chris Daughtry's debut album hit No. 1 and went double platinum (2 million sales).

What do these stars all have in common?

They racked up these wins after they were losers on the hit TV show "American Idol."

With Bothell contestant Blake Lewis in the finals of the biggest TV show of all time — nearly 30 million viewers per night — these achievements raise a tricky question.

Would Lewis, a hip, beat-boxing, decidedly independent musician, actually be better off losing?

"Idol" winners are locked into a contract that's been characterized by industry experts as "onerous" and "restrictive."

Up until now, the consensus in Lewis' peer group — part of Seattle's notoriously anti-mainstream music scene — has been that it just might be better to lose than to win.

The fear, says Lewis' longtime musical companion, drummer Kevin Sawka, who performed with Lewis in his "homecoming" show at Westlake Center last week, was that "they might force him to hire a band he doesn't pick [for his album] and try to sculpt him into a cookie-cutter pop idol."

Why sell your soul for, literally, a song?

Because winning is actually better than losing.

That's what industry insiders and even Lewis' soul mates say now.

"The winner [selected by popular vote] gets a record deal ... and the option of a management contract," said Eric Green, publicity representative for "American Idol" and 19 Entertainment, which created the American Idol brand and began selling it to the Fox TV network in 2002 for a reported $1 million per episode. "There's no guarantee of anything for the runner-up."

According to Green and other sources, here's the "reality" of this reality show:

Many runners-up and finalists — Aiken, Hudson, Daughtry, Katharine McPhee and even Bo Bice and Diana DeGarmo — have done well. Even Federal Way's seventh-place loser Sanjaya has managed to stay in the spotlight.

Cumulatively, however, losers' careers don't stack up to the winners'.

Every "American Idol" winner since it began — Kelly Clarkson (2002), Ruben Studdard (2003), Fantasia Barrino (2004), Carrie Underwood (2005), Taylor Hicks (2006) — has released, post-Idol, a minimum of one gold album (half-million copies sold). Underwood has become a major country star with obvious staying power, netting two Grammy awards this year. Clarkson and Studdard have become household names in rock and soul music, respectively. Barrino is starring in the Broadway hit "The Color Purple." Of all the winners, Hicks' career is the only one flagging slightly, and it was recently reported that he was paid an estimated $750,000 for his life story.

What about that notorious contract?

Fox and 19 Entertainment are secretive, so it's difficult to find out anything concrete. Contestants are reportedly liable for $5 million in damages if they so much as leak a word. Unanswered questions include: What's the duration of the contract? How much money do artists make? And have they sold the rights to their personal image for life?

What we do know: The 24 finalists are required to give 19 Entertainment first right of refusal for three months after the show, for a recording contract and management deal, according to Green.

The winners' deal has been reported as a one-record contract with Sony/BMG, with an option to renew, not the "lifelong" marketing, management and recording deal rumored in the blogosphere. The management contract, Green said, is optional for the winner.

The fear that winners might be forced to record material not keeping with their style seems particularly unfounded, since Underwood, who sings country, was sent to RCA Nashville, and Studdard to the appropriate soul subsidiary.

It is true that "Idol" artists don't have much control over how their image and life story might be marketed by 19 Entertainment. But Howard Siegel, an attorney who represents "Idol" finalists, is on the record as saying that the current contract is "much more generous" than a typical new-artist contract with a major label.

The last 10 finalists are required to go on the three-month-long "American Idol" winners tour, which has grossed $88 million since its inception. (The Tacoma Dome date is July 27). This isn't such a bad deal, according to Ari Zucker, a musician who plays with Lewis. He says the artists are paid $250,000 each.

In fact, say industry authorities, touring and recording after the show are the real litmus tests of success, never mind the singing contest itself.

"It's a matter of making a live connection with their fans, not just a TV show," says Gary Bongiovanni, editor of the concert-industry magazine Pollstar. "They've gotten an amazing boost from being on the show. Now it's a matter of what they do with that."

Lewis, a seasoned performer who knows how to charm a crowd, is poised to make the most of his moment.

A week ago, he told The Seattle Times, "Jordin's my pick for Idol."

But that was all a misunderstanding, says Kristi Redman, Lewis' close friend since childhood and co-founder of the fan Web site Blakergirls.com. Redman has one of Lewis' four complimentary tickets for the show tonight at the Kodak Theater.

So does he want us to vote for him now?

"Yes," she declared.

Paul de Barros: 206-464-3247 or pdebarros@seattletimes.com

Information in this article, originally published May 22, was corrected May 23. A previous version of this story incorrectly stated reported that Kristi Redman told The Seattle Times that artists are paid $250,000 to perform on the "American Idol" winners tour. Ari Zucker, a musician who works with "American Idol" contestant Blake Lewis, was the source for that figure.