The Howard Stern diaspora

Can millions of listeners just disappear?

That's a question plaguing Howard Stern and one with vital implications for radio itself in the wake of the shock jock's heralded and hyped switch from free to satellite broadcasting.

The self-proclaimed King of All Media once commanded a national audience of 12 million daily listeners before jumping to satellite in January. But since then, his kingdom has shrunk to a fraction of that size. Meanwhile, the shock jock's main replacements thus far have failed to hold very much of the former flock.

According to industry analysts, the new Stern math scans something like this: At best, he took between 1 million and 2 million listeners with him, and his replacements, spread across many of the country's major radio markets, are drawing numbers in a similar range.

That leaves 8 million to 10 million nomadic listeners nationwide wandering the terrestrial radio dial in search of a new voice or sound to lead them out of the morning drive-time wilderness. Call them the Howard Stern diaspora, those legions unwilling to fork over satellite subscription fees and unimpressed by pretenders to the throne.

The timing could scarcely be worse for terrestrial radio, which needs an oversized, rudderless audience now like it needs another intriguing and easy-to-use competitor — say, an iPod, podcasts, personalized CDs or, Stern notwithstanding, the siren songs of satellite.

"It's unprecedented that a radio personality of Stern's magnitude has ever just pulled the plug on his show," said Perry Michael Simon, news-talk-sports editor of AllAccess.com, an online journal of the radio industry. "We're really in uncharted territory here."

With limited ratings data so far, it's hard to tell where the Stern herd is roaming and where big portions of it might ultimately settle, say analysts. But Arbitron ratings clearly demonstrate they aren't stampeding toward Stern's big-name replacements, former Van Halen frontman David Lee Roth on the East Coast and comedian Adam Carolla on the West Coast. Although any head-to-head comparisons between the newcomers and the veteran Stern are unfair, say analysts, the pair's ratings are nevertheless widely regarded as disappointing and, in one case, possibly job threatening.

In their first couple of months, Carolla registered less than a quarter of Stern's ratings while Roth notched well under a fifth. Executives at CBS Radio have said it will take 18 months to two years to build an audience around their new talent, but even so, many contend that Roth might soon be fired.

Meanwhile, Stern's numbers at Sirius, which has more than 4 million subscribers, remain a mystery. The satellite company, which charges about $13 per month for the service, won't release audience numbers. But analysts speculate that even if a quarter of the company's subscribers are daily Stern listeners, that would be considered a success.

In a recent interview, Stern attacked his ex-listeners who are still clinging to terrestrial radio and have refused to join him on the other side.

"You haven't come with me yet? How dare you?" Stern told Entertainment Weekly. "We're up to wild, crazy stuff; the show has never sounded better."