Radio
Dave Ross win would be loss for KIRO

By Mark Rahner
Seattle Times staff reporter

GREG GILBERT / THE SEATTLE TIMES KIRO-AM's morning host Dave Ross is "absolutely prohibited" from talking about his run for Congress on the air.

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Will Dave Ross' run for Congress run KIRO into the ground?

Ross has spent years moderating debates as a radio host on KIRO-AM (710) but became the center of one of his own when KIRO decided that even though Ross plans to run as a Democrat for the 8th Congressional District seat, he'll stay on the air until the deadline for candidates to file for office. Filing dates are July 26-30.

"Dave's a pretty popular talk host. If I was a radio manager at a station where he was performing, I probably would be anxious to keep him on as much as possible, too. No station likes to lose one of their ratings stars," says Al Peterson, an editor for industry trade magazine Radio & Records.

KIRO-AM's station manager, Ken Berry, says he'll do just that, and that FCC equal-time rules won't be a hindrance before that filing deadline. "We think case law's on our side," he said.

Berry added that callers are discouraged from bringing up the candidacy, and that Ross himself is "absolutely prohibited" from talking about it. "But he also came to the conclusion that would be the best course of action. We thought that was the fairest thing."

KIRO, which is owned by Pennsylvania-based Entercom Communications, is screening interim candidates to fill Ross' time slot during election season, and Berry says that Ross is welcome back when it's over. But what if Ross wins the election and doesn't come back? What impact will that have on KIRO, and how will the station respond?

"It's really hard to tell the impact of a Dave," Berry said. "Yeah, when Dave goes away, it's going to be a loss. The war in Iraq, the intense political campaign (for president) — these are things he excels in."

'Uniquely talented'

Peterson believes few strong stations with longstanding reputations like KIRO-AM's are built around a single personality. But Ross' place in the market could make it hard to find anyone to fill his shoes adequately — from the station's own talent pool or otherwise.

"I don't see anybody locally," said Larry Campbell, president of Seattle-based Campbell Media Research. "I think Dave Ross is uniquely talented in this market. He's good enough that CBS uses him to do commentary when Charles Osgood is not on.
 
"I think a lot of broadcasters kind of pooh-pooh talent, especially in this new era of consolidation where there are fewer broadcasters running the companies and more money men running the companies. But time and again when stations have lost top talent and haven't been able to replace them with top talent, they've taken a big hit."

That's more true in talk radio than in other formats, Campbell notes, for the obvious reason that it's based more on personalities than music. For example, he says, when Rush Limbaugh's syndicated show moved from KVI to KTTH, the former went down in the ratings and the latter went up.

Entercom last summer secured the rights to broadcast Rush Limbaugh on KTTH-AM (770). Loyal Limbaugh listeners had spent the previous 12 years tuning into Fisher's KVI-AM (570) to get their daily dose of Rush. Since then, KVI has fallen from the fifth-rated Seattle station in spring 2003 to 22nd, according to the latest Arbitron ratings. KTTH is now fourth.

But there's another reason why losing Ross would harm KIRO. Without him, the station would have a tougher time against competitors that "superserve" listeners with more specialized programming, such as all-news KOMO-AM (1000), conservative-talk KTTH, or KQBZ-FM (100.7) "radio for guys." "I kind of see KIRO as trying to be too many things," Campbell says of the station's more general news-talk content.

And the suits at Entercom rival Fisher Communications must be tickled to death by Ross' announcement.

"Oh, absolutely. As would any other company that was in the talk battle," Campbell says.

Ratings slip after M's exit

But Fisher in particular, Campbell explains: "KIRO has long been the dominant AM station, one of the best in the country. And KOMO switched to all-news in September 2002. That would be perceived as a direct attack on (KIRO), and then Fisher got the Mariners, which I'm sure Entercom didn't appreciate."

KOMO one-upped its local rival in 2002 when it outbid KIRO to broadcast Seattle Mariners baseball games from 2003 to 2008. Arbitron ratings show that loss wounded KIRO:

• In spring 2001, KIRO ranked first and KOMO ranked 16th; that summer, KIRO was first and KOMO was 18th.

• In spring 2002, with KIRO still broadcasting the M's, KIRO was first and KOMO was tied at 14th. KIRO remained first that summer, with KOMO tied for 19th.

• But in spring 2003, when the M's first starting appearing on KOMO, that station moved up in the ratings to tie for third with KIRO. By the summer quarter, KOMO overtook first place and left KIRO tied for third.

Arbitron won't have complete spring 2004 ratings numbers until late July or early August. But for February through April, which includes just the beginning of baseball season, KIRO is ranked third and KOMO is fifth. KOMO is likely to dominate again in the period when the season's in full swing, although the Mariners' own performance this year may dampen those numbers.

Losing Dave Ross permanently could compound the ratings trend.

Lower ratings, of course, translate into lower ad revenues. But Ross' departure wouldn't likely have much financial impact on Entercom Communications,. which owns more than 100 radio stations in 19 markets around the country, including four AM and three FM stations in Seattle besides KIRO.

True, Ross' gabfest is the top-rated Seattle show during the highly competitive 6-10 a.m. period. But KISW-FM (99.9), also owned by Entercom, is in second place thanks to its broadcast of shock-jock Howard Stern, who has seen renewed interest since his war against the FCC and the Bush administration escalated in recent months.

Seattle is Entercom's second largest market behind Boston and accounts for roughly 18 percent of the company's revenues, according to Lehman Brothers. That means the eight Seattle stations accounted for roughly $15.7 million of Entercom's $87 million of revenues in first quarter 2004.

Fisher by comparison, tallied $5.5 million of radio revenues in the first quarter of 2004 from its three Seattle stations.

None of those numbers add up to a way of knowing the dollar amount that Ross is worth to KIRO. The approximate sum: a whole lot, but maybe not everything.

Mark Rahner: mrahner@seattletimes.com

Seattle Times reporters Warren Cornwall and David Bowermaster contributed to this story.